NCAA Tournament Predictions: 1. Purdue vs. 16. Fairleigh Dickinson or Texas Southern

1. Purdue (28-5, 15-5/Big Ten)- The Boilermakers spent much of the season looking like one of, if not the best team in the country. Despite losing Jaden Ivey, Traveion Williams, and Sasha Stefanovic from last year’s Sweet 16 squad, Purdue jumped out to a 22-1 start in 2022-23, led mostly by the emergency of star big man Zach Edey (22.1 ppg, 12.8 rpg) still the most likely Wooden Award winner.

Purdue enters the NCAAs after winning the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles, with Edey going for 30 in the title game against Penn State. The Boilermakers looked like they hit a wall during a stretch when they lost five games, and with star freshman guards Fletcher Loyer (11. ppg) and Braden Smith (10 ppg) and Edey all averaging north of 30 minutes per game, it’s possible they ran out of gas.

Still, the Boilermakers are a No. 1 overall seed with a dominant big man and shooters all around. Purdue ranks inside of the top 20 in both offensive and defensive rating, and has the 22nd-best scoring margin in the country, all barometers for a national title contender.

Purdue has never been able to break through to the third weekend of the NCAA Tournament under Matt Painter, but this year’s team has arguably their best chance yet.

16. Fairleigh Dickinson (19-14, 10-6/NEC)- Not to disrespect the Knights here, but you probably shouldn’t spend too much time mulling over this one on your bracket. FDU is a Fairleigh good team (sorry), but they play in one of the worst conferences in the country and don’t figure to have much of a chance here. The Knights lost games to Hartford, which spent the season transitioning to Division III, and Queens University, which was in its first season in Division I. In fact, FDU didn’t even have to win its conference tournament– they punched their ticket to the Big Dance after winning in the semifinals because Merrimack College, who won the NEC regular season and advanced in the other semifinal, isn’t eligible for the NCAA Tournament due to the fact that it hasn’t been in Division I long enough.

All that said, the Knights do have experience in the backcourt, led by senior guards Demetre Roberts (16.9 ppg) and Grant Singleton (14.4 ppg). Four players average in double figures in scoring, and FDU has proven it can fill it up, averaging 76.6 points per game.

16. Texas Southern (14-20, 7-11/SWAC)- Just when the rest of the SWAC thought they had a chance to break through and knock Texas Southern from its throne, the Tigers rose from the ashes of a 14-20 season and an eighth-place conference finish to win three games in three days and take home the SWAC title for the third year in a row. And that’s why they call it March Madness.

It had been a down year for Johnny Jones, a Texas basketball coaching legend in his own right who has also led North Texas and LSU to NCAA Tournament appearances. But one tremendous weekend erases all of that, and you have to feel for co-regular season champs Grambling and Alcorn State, both of which went 15-3 in the regular season.

The Tigers are a balanced-scoring outfit, led by sophomore forward Davon Barnes (13.6 ppg). This is the seventh time in the last ten years that Texas Southern has reached the NCAAs.

PREDICTION: Purdue over Texas Southern

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Predictions: Index