NCAA Tournament Predictions: 6. Iowa State vs. 11. Mississippi State or Pittsburgh
6. Iowa State (19-13, 9-9/Big 12)- For head coach T. J. Otzelberger, it’s been a tale of two seasons. On January 17, the Cyclones knocked off then seventh-ranked Texas to move to 14-3 and 5-1 in the Big 12. They had the look of a Sweet 16, and maybe even a Final Four contender that was threatening Texas and Kansas for Big 12 supremacy.
However, since that date, Iowa State is only 5-10 including a stretch where they lost 7 of 8 to close out the regular season. They did beat Baylor before losing to Kansas in the Big 12 tournament, though.
So, what’s been ailing Iowa State in recent weeks? Quite simply, they’ve been unable to score at the same rate. Iowa State has averaged only 56.9 points per contest and they have not shot well at all from deep during that stretch.
But is all hope truly lost in Ames? Not exactly. Iowa State is still a talented team, and the grind of playing in the Big 12 has as much to do with their freefall as their own performance. This is still a team that ranks inside the top 10 in the country in defensive rating, and has beaten the likes of Baylor, Kansas, and Kansas State. Great defense can ail a lot of bad shooting nights, and we bet that potential opponents weren’t thrilled to see their names called alongside Iowa State’s in the Midwest region despite their recent struggles.
The Cyclones will face the winner of the First Four matchup between Mississippi State and Pittsburgh on Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET in Dayton.
11. Mississippi State (21-12, 8-10/SEC)- A common theme for many bubble teams this season (such as Mississippi State, Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Arizona State), has been that they are quite … well … offensively challenged is one of the nicest ways to put it. Chris Jans’ squad is not exactly what you would call an offensive juggernaut, considering they rank below 300th nationally in points per-game and a barely-better 285th in field-goal percentage.
Still, a late-season surge that was mostly carried by their elite defense has carried them into the March Madness field. Mississippi State is a top-five team in the country in terms of defensive rating, and they also excel at forcing turnovers at 14.7 per game.
In Dayton, they will create matchup issues for Pittsburgh if they are able to muck the game up with long possessions that grind the game to a halt. As an example of what they’re capable of, Mississippi State held one of the best offenses in the country, Marquette, to 55 points in a three-point win last November.
Whatever offense they do generate is done mostly by senior Tolu Smith, the team’s only play in double-digits in scoring. Smith hung 28 on Florida in an SEC Tournament win last week, and scored 27 in Mississippi State’s January win over TCU.
Mississippi State won’t be the most exciting team to watch in the tournament, but they’re ability to force opponents into bad shots defensively should make them a tough out.
11. Pittsburgh (22-11, 14-6/ACC)- It’s hard to believe for fans of the Big East in the early 2000s, but Pittsburgh hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament in six years. The once-proud program, which rose to national prominence under Ben Howland and then Jamie Dixon, fell off a cliff after joining the ACC, oscillating between abject futility and irrelevance (sound familiar, Boston College?)
It’s taken five seasons, but head coach Jeff Capel finally has the Panthers back in position to make some NCAA Tournament noise after a solid season in which the team won 14 games in the ACC, though they were eviscerated, 96-69 by Duke in the ACC tournament.
Pittsburgh is led by junior forward Blake Hinson, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding with 15.6 points and 6.2 rebounds.
Jamarius Burton (15.6 ppg) Greg Elliott (10.4 ppg) and Nelly Cummings (11 pg) all average in double figures as well.
PREDICTION: Iowa State over Pittsburgh
