Neal: Offseason conundrum: Should the Wild keep Fiala or Dumba?
Kevin Fiala scored early Tuesday in Montreal to become the 42nd player in the NHL to enter the coveted 30-goal zone this season.
For those waiting to see the 25-year-old Wild winger put it all together, wait no more. He's crafty, creative and full of flair. He's awesome in transition. He still makes mistakes and turns over the puck more than he should, but he's already sitting on a career high in goals and is in his finest season as a pro.
So that settles it, right? The debate over keeping Fiala or defenseman Matt Dumba this summer — because of salary cap issues, the Wild can't have both — is over now? The team surely can't part ways with Fiala, who will be a restricted free agent following the season.
That would mean it needs to move on from Dumba, who has a salary cap hit of $6 million next season in the final year of his contract. With limited cap space — mostly because of $12.7 million in dead money following the buyouts of Zack Parise and Ryan Suter — Dumba's gotta go to make room for an improved contract for Fiala, who is making $5.1 million this season. And Fiala might not yet be at the height of his powers, potentially a tantalizing development for the win-now Wild.
But hold on to your breezers, folks. Dumba might be worth keeping if it truly comes down to him vs. Fiala.
Who am I to turn away a 30-goal scorer? Keep an open mind here ...
It was just the 2014-15 season during which 15 players — only 15 — reached the 30-goal plateau. It was a rarer occurrence then, and teams were living large if they had one player on the roster with that ability. Parise tied for 10th in the league with 33 goals for the Wild that season.
There's been a proliferation of sniping since then. A total of 45 players reached 30 goals in 2018-19, the last full season before COVID. Entering Tuesday's game, there were 16 players a hat trick or fewer from reaching 30 goals, including Fiala. The NHL's goals per game (3.14) is the highest it has been since 1995-96.
It's not that rare to have a 30-goal scorer. And signing Fiala is not a sure thing. I reached out to an agent this week who estimated that a 30-goal scorer should get around $7 million per year, and Fiala's camp might argue his upside is worth more. With other players needing to be signed, moving Dumba to fit a new Fiala contract might not be enough for GM Bill Guerin.
With goal-scoring threats across the league these days, teams better have their defense sorted out. And that's why the Wild should keep Dumba over Fiala.
Dumba is mistake-prone as well, but remains an overall solid player with a booming shot. The Wild do have some up-and-coming defensemen in Calen Addison, Carson Lambos and Jack Peart. They might be skilled but aren't considered to be as gritty as Dumba. (Addison is 22 years old, by the way, and should be contributing by now.) Dumba also has evolved into one of the spiritual leaders in the locker room and wears the "A." That means something to Guerin, who wants to make sure the pulse of the locker room remains strong.
The pairing of Dumba and the steady Jonas Brodin (who, like captain Jared Spurgeon, has a no-trade clause) is one of the better ones in the game. Each suffers when the other is out of the lineup. The Wild gave up 10 goals over its past two games before Tuesday's shutout, and it could be more than a coincidence that it comes while Dumba recovers from a sore shoulder suffered on April 5 when he tried to knock Nashville's Michael McCarron into Kentucky.
Fiala has broken through as a goal scorer, provides a unique skill set and, at worst, will be third on the team in points this season. The Wild doesn't beat San Jose on Sunday without him. Dumba is vital to the Wild's defensive setup, which his bosses have noted, and he's a growing influence in the locker room. He's an ideal fit for the Wild, more vital than Fiala.
If it comes down to hanging onto a top-four defenseman vs. an emerging offensive talent this offseason, keep Dumba and find out what a 30-goal scorer is worth on the trade market.
