Nearly half of voters think it's likely Biden will be replaced as nominee, a new poll shows

Nearly half of American voters think it's at least somewhat likely that President Joe Biden will be replaced as the Democratic nominee because of his health, and a third believe Donald Trump could ultimately lose the Republican nomination as a result of his extensive legal troubles, according to a new poll conducted by Monmouth University.

Questions about Biden’s age and mental stamina have intensified since last week's release of Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report that described Biden’s memory as “poor."

The study says the Hur report didn’t shift public opinion on whether Biden mishandled classified documents that were found in his home and a think tank office he uses, but it did reinforce the increased concern of Biden’s physical and mental health.

Fifty-one percent of voters were confident in the mental capacity and physical stamina of Trump to lead the country — but only 32 percent were able to say the same for Biden, the poll found.

Voter opinion on both candidates has shifted from a 2020 study conducted months before the last presidential election.

In 2020, just 45 percent of voters were confident in Trump’s stamina. Over half of voters at that time were confident in Biden’s stamina — a statistic that has decreased significantly.

The trend is also true among Democratic voters: 91 percent of Democrats surveyed in the summer of 2020 had confidence in Biden's mental and physical stamina, compared with 72 percent today.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from Feb. 8 to 12, with 902 adults. The question results are based on 822 registered voters and have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

More broadly, the report found that support for the candidates has not changed much since a poll taken last fall, with about four in 10 voters surveyed saying they would "definitely" or "probably" support Trump, and the same number backing Biden.