Who needs a debate? Momentum moves to Kari Lake from Katie Hobbs in Arizona governor race

Correction: This column has been updated to attribute a quote on Kari Lake's national emergence to Jonathan V. Last, editor of The Bulwark.

Hear that sound?

That’s the whoosh of momentum shifting in the Arizona governor’s race.

What began as a contest about Kari Lake’s immersion, body and soul, into the populist waters of Donald Trump has now become a story about the faint heart and ineptitude of her Democratic opponent, Katie Hobbs.

The ah-hah moment in the Arizona governor’s race came as a short video that blazed across social media this week and flipped a light switch in the minds of state Republicans and Democrats.

The softball interview that changed things

It was filmed during candidate interviews that Hobbs and her Republican opponent did separately with state and national Hispanic Chamber of Commerce on Oct. 3 and was later aired Oct. 8.

In the Q&A, a moderator tosses the most gentle of questions to Hobbs.

“Today you said that growing up in Arizona, you have seen and heard how impactful the migrant community, talking about the Hispanic community, has been. Let me ask you, how has it impacted you personally? What have you learned – specifically learned – from the Latino community?”

Enter deer. Enter headlight.

What follows is cringe-inducing as Hobbs knows she’s in trouble and searches urgently through the recesses of her mind for anything, anything intelligent she might possibly say.

Katie Hobbs draws a blank on Latino lessons

“Oh, that’s a great question,” she says. “Um, I don’t necessarily think about it that way, in those terms. I think I really value my relationships across the board with different folks, and I learn all the time from people in my life,” Hobbs says.

“My sister-in-law, she is Latino, and her family – I love hanging out with them and practicing my español – un piquito. So, but yeah, I’ve learned so much from her family, but I think it’s really hard to separate out Arizona and subtract Latino culture because it’s so much a part of who we are as a state, and I – Arizona wouldn’t be Arizona without what the Latino community brings.”

Arizona and MAGA: Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney can stand up to Arizona's MAGA slate. Why can't Doug Ducey?

Understand, this Hobbsian meltdown happened at a forum organized by Arizona Latinos for Arizona Latinos, and she didn’t come prepared to answer a question about how she sees and values Arizona Latinos.

People noticed. Did they ever.

In the tape, her moderator León Krauze, a Univision News anchor, is surprised by her non-answer and presses, “So there is not one specific lesson you can share, other than the Español? It’s one-third of the state.”

“Uh, yes absolutely. I mean, I think there’s many lessons: The emphasis on family values, hard work. Those are something that I value in my own life, and, you know, it’s something that I respect.”

Kari Lake breaks protocol, gets under her skin

When the video blazed across the internet this week, it provided that moment of absolute clarity.

So that’s why Katie Hobbs won’t debate Kari Lake. It would be like Bambi getting in the ring with Godzilla.

What viewers of the clip didn’t know, is that Godzilla, Kari Lake, apparently broke forum protocol by sitting in the audience directly in the soon-to-be sight line of Katie Hobbs before her interview, reported Marc Caputo of NBC News.

Joe Garcia, an event organizer with co-sponsor Chicanos Por La Causa Action Fund, told Caputo, “Kari Lake brought along a Mexican telenovela star and she brought the drama. It was like a telenovela.”

Garcia told Caputo that Lake had “rattled her opponent. She was big, brash, and very larger than life, Trump-esque. Anyone who thinks she was there to follow all the rules doesn’t know Kari Lake.”

The Lake campaign disputes that it broke any rules.

National media proclaims GOP star is born in Kari Lake

After the Hispanic Chamber Q&A, other dominoes began to tumble in Kari Lake’s favor.

On Sunday, Oct. 9, the day after the Hispanic Chamber interview aired, Lake broke onto the national scene in a large way.

In a similar format of separate Q&As on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” Lake brought her anchorwoman’s poise and confidence to the interview and caught the attention of national observers.

Opinion alerts: Get columns from your favorite columnists + expert analysis on top issues, delivered straight to your device through the USA TODAY app. Don't have the app? Download it for free from your app store.

Jonathan V. Last, editor at the aggressively anti-Trump publication The Bulwark, immediately saw the potential.

“Kari Lake gives you a frisson of danger similar to Trump,” he wrote. “She’s a better speaker and is better on TV than (Fla. Gov. Ron) DeSantis. If she wins in Arizona, I think she instantly becomes the leading candidate for Trump’s VP and the most obvious heir to the MAGA throne."

The Future of Conservatism: Can Republicans move past Trump? For the sake of America, they must

In an article the same day that was largely critical of Lake’s politics, The Atlantic Monthly’s Elaine Godfrey wrote glowingly of her gifts of speech and her almost certain rise in the national Republican Party.

“There’s a seductive power to Lake’s voice: deep but still feminine; firm, even severe, but smooth. Like black tea with a little honey.”

Then came the blowup with Arizona PBS

Then came Wednesday and the big brouhaha with Arizona Clean Elections and Arizona PBS.

What was originally envisioned as a debate, had become a single interview with Kari Lake, because Hobbs had refused to debate.

On the day of the Lake interview, Clean Elections officials learned that Arizona PBS had scheduled Hobbs for an interview on its “Arizona Horizon” program for Oct. 18. “Arizona Horizon” had also made the same offer to Lake.

Clean Elections viewed that as a breach of their partnership, allowing Hobbs to circumvent the debate and still win airtime. Its management ended the partnership with Arizona PBS, canceled the interview with Lake and announced it was seeking a new partner.

What likely happened was that “Arizona Horizon” saw its regular program as a separate entity from the debate partnership and was doing what it always does, offering invites to important Arizonans to appear on the program. Since Arizona PBS offered the same interview to Lake, they weren’t playing favorites. Had Clean Elections not pulled out, the airtime would have still favored Lake, who could have done two Q&As to Hobbs’ one.

That’s of little concern now.

The blowup was a windfall for Kari Lake, and she seized the moment with a press conference at Arizona PBS to decry Katie Hobbs and public television. That only put a stronger spotlight on the fact that Hobbs would not debate Lake, let alone her opponent in the Democratic primary, as Arizona Republic columnist Laurie Roberts pointed out on Wednesday.

What's at stake in the 2022 midterm election? Here's everything to watch before Election Day.

Democrats are getting antsy about Hobbs

Even Arizona Democrats are beginning to grouse about Hobbs’ refusal to debate.

More and more of her supporters see it as “an unforced error,” reported NBC News on Wednesday.

“You wonder as a candidate if you’re doing everything you should be doing,” said Sandra Kennedy, a Democrat and member of the Arizona Corporation Commission. “You don’t want to wait till the day after the election and think, ‘Would I have done it another way?’

“... If I were the candidate for governor, I would debate, and I would want the people of Arizona to know what my platform is. And I would lay it out – lay it out in a way so they will know the difference between me and Kari Lake.”

Donna Durand, who chairs a Democratic Party organization west of Phoenix, told NBC she is “anxious” that Hobbs chose not to debate. “I feel the frustrations. I’ve been contacting Hobbs’ team since June. And my clubs out here have been contacting the Hobbs team since January. And we just get the same answer – either crickets or ‘sorry, we can’t do this right now.’ ”

The debate that wasn't could be her downfall

Wes Gullett, a longtime left-of-center Republican and Arizona politico who eschews Trump, told NBC that people like him are an easy mark for Hobbs.

“I’ve said this to the Hobbs people: ‘Throw a punch, and I’m there. Fight, fight, and I’m there. Lead,’ But she doesn’t.”

Katie Hobbs made a calculation in the 2022 race for Arizona governor that if she avoids a debate with her opponent she might just win.

It turns out that she may need that debate to save her candidacy.

Because right now the debate she skipped is defining her and raising real doubts that she has the mettle to be governor.

Phil Boas is an editorial columnist with The Arizona Republic. Email him at phil.boas@arizonarepublic.com.

You can read diverse opinions from our Board of Contributors and other writers on the Opinion front page, on Twitter @usatodayopinion and in our daily Opinion newsletter. To respond to a column, submit a comment to letters@usatoday.com.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs: Momentum shifts in Arizona governor's race