Nerlens Noel’s emergence could complicate Mitchell Robinson’s future

NEW ORLEANS — As the Knicks overcome their biggest injury this season without skipping a beat, the question that requires examination is how much is Mitchell Robinson worth if easily replaced?

Robinson, 23, may not play another game in the regular season because of his broken foot, and it’s likely we won’t get another glimpse of him at full rhythm or strength before next season. Nerlens Noel, meanwhile, has plugged the center hole with a better net rating than Robinson heading into Wednesday’s game against the Pelicans.

The Knicks’ record is comparable with Robinson (15-16 before Wednesday), and without (13-11).

Already on his fourth NBA team at 26 years old, Noel doesn’t carry the same upside or athleticism as Robinson, but he provides what Tom Thibodeau desires most in a center.

“His gift is rim protection,” the coach said. “He’s obviously elite in that category.”

It’s relevant beyond this season because Robinson’s contract hits a pivotal moment in the summer. He has a $1.8 million team option for next season, which would be a no-brainer for the Knicks to pick up except it sends Robinson into unrestricted free agency in 2022. The Knicks would risk losing him for nothing. The other options are to either decline the team option and re-sign Robinson as a restricted free agent this summer, or to give him an extension before free agency.

As it stands, Robinson wouldn’t be negotiating from a place of power and the Knicks shouldn’t feel like committing long-term money when they can have another season to evaluate. Unless Robinson is willing to take a reduced deal — thereby opting for security over gambling on himself — the most logical resolution is the Knicks picking up his $1.8 million option.

But it’s risky for both sides. The Knicks, as noted, would be sending their springboard 7-footer into the open market. Robinson, who has been collecting a meager check by NBA standards through his first three seasons (just $4.7 million total), might be endangering a generational-changing payday.

Noel, coincidentally, can relate. Coming off his rookie contract in 2017, Noel declined a four-year, $70 million contract from the Mavericks and never again got close to that number. He bet on himself and lost. Noel’s now on his fourth consecutive one-year contract, with the Knicks deal of $5 million representing the largest salary of Noel’s career.

If his numbers hold up through the final quarter of the season, Noel will hit the market this summer averaging a career-high in blocks (2.1 before Wednesday) with five points and 6.8 rebounds on 60 percent shooting. Similar to Robinson, Noel has bounced around agents. He’s already on his third agent since signing with the Knicks, moving from Rich Paul to Chris Gaston to George Langberg.

Noel can’t catch finish alley-oops like Robinson, but he’s a more disciplined defender and can hit the occasional mid-range jumper. Robinson’s offense operates exclusively in the paint.

“They’re both great. Nerlens is a great defender, really protects the paint,” RJ Barrett said. “Mitch is always catching all the lobs, getting the putbacks and everything. So we definitely miss Mitch but we love that we can have Nerlens.”