Never Trumpers Brace for New Hampshire Shutout
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
(Bloomberg) -- For Republicans who are loath to nominate Donald Trump for president, New Hampshire is quickly becoming the best and perhaps final chance to stop him.
Most Read from Bloomberg
China Weighs Stock Market Rescue Package Backed by $278 Billion
Florida Governor DeSantis Drops Out of 2024 Race, Endorses Trump
Hong Kong Stocks at 36% Discount Show True Depth of China Gloom
Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Say Buy the Dip After Treasury Rout
The stakes increased Sunday when Florida Governor Ron DeSantis — once seen as likeliest to unseat Trump as the party’s standard bearer — suspended his White House bid and threw his support behind the former president. Just two days before, another 2024 aspirant, South Carolina US Senator Tim Scott, endorsed Trump, adding to the air of inevitability around the frontrunner.
For Nikki Haley, the last major GOP rival to Trump left in the race, New Hampshire is shaping up as a make-or-break moment. Her supporters say she still has a chance to upset Trump or at least come in a close second, but the window is narrowing.
That makes it a crucible for the Never Trump crowd.
Trump leads in the state with 50% support from likely GOP primary voters, compared to Haley’s 39%, a poll from CNN published Sunday found. That gap suggests a closer race than in Iowa, where Trump won last week’s caucuses by about 30 percentage points in a blowout victory.
.
“If he wins in New Hampshire, it is all over, but to be completely honest, I think it is all over,” said Jennifer Horn, former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, who is now registered as an independent and intends to vote for President Joe Biden in 2024. “Whether Nikki Haley was in New Hampshire for one day or 1,000 days, she never gave anyone a reason to not vote for Trump.”
The Granite State is heavy on moderate Republicans and independents, making it favorable ground for Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and US Ambassador to the UN, who has found appeal with her party’s college-educated, suburban and centrist voters.
QuickTake: How Trump’s Candidacy Tests the US Constitution
“I will do everything I can to prove to you that you made the right decision,” Haley said shortly after DeSantis announced his withdrawal. “But for now, I’ll leave you with this: May the best woman win.”
Despite her disappointing Iowa finish, Haley’s campaign pointed to the nearly half of its Republican voters who chose a candidate other than Trump.
“50% of the voters in Iowa said they want something new,” Haley’s campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, said at a Bloomberg News event Saturday. “I think that you’ll continue to see that play out, and so don’t underestimate her.”
But Trump’s popularity with New Hampshire voters runs deep, just as it did in Iowa, says Neil Levesque, executive director of New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College.
“It’s not that Haley has weaknesses, it’s just that Trump is so strong on all demographic groups and all issues, including the economy and immigration,” said Levesque.
Haley’s challenge is to coalesce the rest of New Hampshire GOP primary voters, which will include independents and even some former Democrats, who had to switch party affiliations last fall in order to vote. Former supporters of Chris Christie, who dropped out of the GOP primary race earlier this month, are a ripe target.
And yet whatever benefit Haley gets from Christie’s exit, Trump has something of a counterweight: The former president is expected to pick up supporters from Vivek Ramaswamy, who ended his campaign after the Iowa caucuses. The CNN poll showed DeSantis with 6% support in New Hampshire, and those voters are likely to go to Trump, New Hampshire Republican Party Chairman Chris Ager said.
Trump’s campaign aims to project an aura of invincibility, but is also not playing it safe. The former president has lobbed attacks on Haley’s policy record on China, her handling of the gas and sales tax in South Carolina and previous comments she made about raising the age for eligibility for Social Security.
His team has released ads and images tying her to establishment Republicans, like former House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator Mitt Romney. In one social media post, Trump even superimposed Haley’s facial features on a picture of Hillary Clinton.
‘Temper Tantrums’
Trump also has falsely implied on social media that Haley is not eligible for the presidency because she was born to Indian immigrant parents. It’s reminiscent of the way he attacked ex-President Barack Obama on similar grounds in an appeal to the racist elements of the Republican Party.
The Haley campaign has hit back, with Haley going after Trump for throwing “temper tantrums.” “Donald Trump is telling a whole lot of lies. But if he’s gonna lie about me, I’m gonna tell the truth about him,” she said Friday at a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire.
Her campaign has released a two-minute compilation video of the times Trump praised Haley while she was serving in his administration. She has cautioned voters against reelecting a candidate in his late 70s whose tenure in the White House often was chaotic.
Read More: Haley Campaign Dismisses Trump Taunts as She Gains on Ex-Boss
“After losing New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and again in 2020 to Joe Biden, Donald Trump is nervous and attacking Nikki Haley with lies,” said Brittany Yanick, a spokesperson for SFA Fund, Inc., a super PAC supporting Haley.
Americans for Prosperity Action, a super PAC affiliated with billionaire Charles Koch, has spent about $30 million so far on efforts to get Haley elected. About $3 million to $4 million of that is on canvassing and $26 million has gone to advertising in the early states. In New Hampshire, the group has contacted 210,000 voters.
“For Haley, she obviously needs big turnout,” Greg Moore, a senior adviser for the group, said in a Manchester, New Hampshire interview on Sunday.
A senior adviser to the Trump campaign, Chris LaCivita, said Haley mostly appeals to centrist Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats, none of whom are the base of the current Republican party. “She’s got Democrats funding her campaign,” LaCivita told Bloomberg News. “Republicans don’t take kindly to that, so that is a message we will continue to drive.”
Haley’s campaign has received money from both Republican and Democratic donors, and Haley has said she will accept support from all corners.
Allies to Haley say she is better positioned than Trump to beat Biden in a general election – an idea they are hammering in the final days before New Hampshire’s primary.
“This is not done. This is far from over,” said Ankney, Haley’s campaign manager, referring to Iowa. “One state has voted with just over 100,000 people,” she added.
--With assistance from Gregory Korte and Christian Hall.
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
