News Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued
- By GF Value
The stock of News (NAS:NWS, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $24.895 per share and the market cap of $15.4 billion, News stock appears to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for News is shown in the chart below.
Because News is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 3.1% over the past five years.
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Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. News has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.61, which is in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Media - Diversified. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of News at 6 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of News is fair. This is the debt and cash of News over the past years:
Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. News has been profitable 5 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $8.7 billion and loss of $1.46 a share. Its operating margin is 6.32%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Media - Diversified. Overall, the profitability of News is ranked 4 out of 10, which indicates poor profitability. This is the revenue and net income of News over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company's stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of News is 3.1%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Media - Diversified. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 4.3%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Media - Diversified.
One can also evaluate a company's profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, News's ROIC is 4.86 while its WACC came in at 9.87. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of News is shown below:
In short, the stock of News (NAS:NWS, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is poor. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Media - Diversified. To learn more about News stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
