With 2 months to Election Day, Mark Robinson tries to reset a flailing NC campaign | Opinion

With just over two months to go until Election Day, is Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s campaign showing signs of struggle?

He’s trailing in polls and fundraising. He’s being outspent on the airwaves. And election forecasters now classify the race as “Leans Democratic” instead of a toss-up.

Recent polls have had Robinson trailing his Democratic opponent Josh Stein by as many as 14 points. That’s a landslide by any standard, but especially in North Carolina, where statewide elections tend to be rather close. Stein’s lead is similar to — if slightly lower than — the lead that Gov. Roy Cooper held over Republican opponent Dan Forest in the 2020 race for governor.

At the moment, the race doesn’t seem as close as many might have expected, considering the matchup between Stein and Robinson was predicted to be one of the most expensive and competitive gubernatorial races in the country this election cycle.

Stein raised nearly $14 million between February and June, while Robinson raised approximately $5 million, according to campaign finance reports filed with the North Carolina State Board of Elections. And data from AdImpact, which tracks political ad spending, shows that Stein wields a massive advantage on the airwaves. In spending on ads that have aired so far, Stein holds a 2-to-1 advantage. And in TV ad reservations booked through Election Day, Stein’s advantage grows to 16-to-1.

Of course, fundraising isn’t everything. Democrats have often led Republicans in fundraising and spending in big contests in North Carolina, only to lose at the polls. But there are still cases in which messaging can be effective, and this might be one of them. Besides, the question at the center of this race has always been whether Robinson’s history of vitriol would be too much for North Carolinians, and so far, there are plenty of reasons to think it might be.

The Stein campaign is saturating the airwaves with simple, straightforward ads that use Robinson’s own words against him — which may be to Robinson’s detriment. Axios Raleigh reported that one ad against Robinson, which shows him saying abortion is “about killing the child because you weren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down,” has been particularly effective. In a focus group conducted by Axios, one woman cited that comment when asked what she knew about Robinson.

Robinson’s campaign team has been fighting hard to regain control of the narrative, pointing to other recent polls that show Stein up six points over Robinson.

“Despite a significant spending advantage from ⁦Soros-backed far-left career politician Josh Stein, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is closing the gap and pounding the pavement connecting with voters of all backgrounds around the state,” Robinson campaign spokesperson Mike Lonergan said in a statement. “Polls have consistently underestimated Republican support in North Carolina for several cycles now. With a large portion of the electorate still undecided as we continue to ramp up our efforts on the ground and on the airwaves, Mark Robinson remains in a strong position to win in November.”

A memo from Robinson’s pollster obtained by The Charlotte Observer said that Robinson is polling better than Forest in 2020 or Pat McCrory in 2016, putting Robinson “on track to win.” Republican candidates for governor in North Carolina historically overperform polling by 7% or more on Election Day, the memo said.

Of course, it’s worth noting that only some polls show Robinson polling better than Forest and McCrory, while others show him polling worse. It’s also worth noting that Forest lost by 4.5 percentage points in 2020 — a fairly large margin by North Carolina standards — so Robinson could outperform Forest and still lose.

Still, Robinson’s recent actions seem to indicate a renewed focus on invigorating his campaign. After going months without public campaign events, Robinson has now launched a “statewide tour of North Carolina” with roughly a dozen appearances in the next week. Perhaps in an effort to combat the perception that he is unserious and lacks experience for the job, Last month, Robinson held a news conference where he revealed a “public safety plan” for North Carolina. The news conference lasted 11 minutes and the plan was a little over a page long. Two weeks before that, he released an economic plan.

Still, to say this race has already been won would be naive. This is North Carolina, after all, and anything can happen. Perhaps Robinson can tame his image enough to sway those who are hesitant to vote for him, or maybe they’ll decide to vote for him anyway. But right now, he’s underperforming.