2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU updates forecast, still calls for 'active season'

Colorado State University (CSU) just updated their prediction for the 2024 hurricane season.

The revised forecast, released on Tuesday, Aug. 6, still calls for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to November 30..

However, it reduced the number of predicted named storms, from 25 to 23. A dozen of those 23 are hurricanes, six of which are major hurricanes, meaning a hurricane classified in Category 3 or higher.

For reference, an average Atlantic hurricane season sees 14 storms named storms, with only six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, meaning the projections for this year are about double the average from 1991-2020.

How will all of these hurricanes affect New England? Read below for the details.

Why are they predicting an active hurricane season in 2024?

CSU lists many factors that can cause an increase in hurricanes, the biggest one being elevated sea surface temperatures.

Because the temperature of the water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near their record high, the hurricanes have a much more conducive environment to form and intensify.

The second biggest factor is increasing probability of a La Niña climate pattern forming.

La Niña, which has a 70% chance of rising this month through October, occurs when the waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean cool. The ripple effect through the atmosphere reduces the wind shear in the Atlantic, giving budding storms room to grow.

What does a hyperactive hurricane season mean for New England?

CSU predicts a 30% probability that major hurricanes will make landfall on the East Coast, higher than the average probability of 21%.

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The threat is definitely more severe for southeastern states, where the water is much warmer. As hurricanes head toward New England, they tend to weaken due to colder water and stronger winds. However, even weakened hurricanes can still cause damage, especially as scientists continue to record rising water temperatures off the northeast coast. Hurricane Henri in 2021, for example, made landfall in Rhode Island as a Category 1 hurricane, with heavy rainfall and flooding throughout the region.

If CSU's predictions are correct - and they say their forecast is above their normal level of confidence - a bad hurricane season is ahead, and repeats of Henri are not out of the question.

Why did CSU change their Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast?

CSU has issued August updates to their forecast since 1984, so this isn't a new thing.

Senior researcher and hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach told the Palm Beach Post the dip to 23 named storms isn't a significant change. The initial forecast issued in April also called for 23 named storms.

"Basically, we just didn't have any new named storms form between Chris and Debby, so the odds of getting 21 additional named storms are pretty low," said Klotzbach, who is the lead writer of the CSU forecast.

This article originally appeared on The Patriot Ledger: 2024 Hurricane Season: CSU updates forecast. Here's what changed