The 2024 Map Just Got a Major Shakeup

Choosing a running mate isn’t the only big decision awaiting Vice President Kamala Harris in the 100-day sprint to Election Day. Her campaign must also chart a course to 270 electoral votes across a map that bears little resemblance to 2020.

The map she inherits from President Joe Biden is grim. Before the president withdrew his candidacy Sunday, he was trailing in the polls in every battleground state, including the five he flipped to win the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His path to victory had narrowed to a white-knuckle ride through the Rust Belt, a strategy predicated on holding the party’s so-called Blue Wall.

Arizona and Georgia — and especially Nevada, another state Biden captured in 2020 — seemed too far gone.

That stands to change with Harris as the nominee. Her profile — spiritually, if not technically, a GenXer; a product of Sun Belt politics; a woman of color with experience running and winning among Latino voters; a leading party voice on abortion rights — suddenly appears to reopen the map, offering two distinct paths to victory.

There isn’t enough quality polling data yet to know for sure. Much will depend on Harris’ ability to expand on Biden’s current margins with Black and Latino voters. But there’s cause to think she could blaze a Sun Belt trail to the White House, a route that was closed to Biden.

It begins somewhat implausibly in rapidly growing North Carolina, a state that has voted almost exclusively Republican in presidential races over the past half-century. It’s a daunting record of GOP success, but it’s leavened by the fact that former President Donald Trump carried the state by just 75,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast in 2020, a considerably smaller winning margin than in 2016.

The historic nature of Harris’ candidacy is likely to resonate louder in North Carolina than most other places, given that over 20 percent of the population is Black. In 2008, the similarly groundbreaking candidacy of Barack Obama helped him narrowly win there, powered by a record turnout of Black voters. Here’s an idea of Obama’s catalytic effect on the electorate: In 2004, only 59 percent of registered Black voters turned out, compared with 66 percent of registered white voters. Four years later, a record 72 percent of registered Black people voted, outpacing the rate of white people in the state for the first time. Black turnout hasn’t hit that turnout level since.

Given Trump’s current advantage in North Carolina polls, it’s still a risky play. But the prospect of an electorate reshaped by new residents and a possible surge of Black voters will be enticing. The return on investment would be considerable, since a loss in the state would blow a hole in Trump’s coalition. Due to its population gains, North Carolina now offers more Electoral College votes (16) than Wisconsin (10) and even more than traditional giant Michigan (15).

The dynamics are similar in Georgia where, four years after winning there, Biden is also underwater in the polls. If Harris could enhance Black turnout levels in the swing state with the highest percentage of Black residents, the payoff would be huge.

In Arizona and Nevada, where roughly 30 percent of residents are Latino, Harris’ chances are contingent on her ability to reverse Biden’s glaring underperformance among those voters. But it would be hard to do any worse. A post-debate New York Times/Siena College national poll featured a stunning figure buried in the cross-tabs: Among Hispanic likely voters, Biden and Trump were essentially tied. It’s a far cry from 2020, when Biden won Hispanic voters by 21 points, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters.

Harris has a history of running well among Latino voters, winning a majority of their votes in her two statewide campaigns for California attorney general and losing them narrowly in her 2016 Senate bid, which pitted her against a Latina Democrat.

The results from a new Quinnipiac University survey that was in the field in the days just before Biden’s withdrawal offer additional evidence. The poll tested both Biden and Harris in matchups with Trump. While Biden had a 47 percent to 45 percent edge over Trump among Hispanic registered voters, Harris led Trump 52-46. The most recent Times/Siena poll, released Thursday, reported an even wider Harris advantage among Hispanic likely voters: 60-36.

In both Arizona and Nevada, Harris might have additional tailwinds that were unavailable to Biden. Arizona could have an abortion rights initiative on the ballot; polls suggest it has majority support. If so, it could spark turnout that would bolster Harris, who has spearheaded the Democratic Party’s post-Dobbs messaging.

In Nevada, which Trump has lost twice, Harris begins with a degree of familiarity unavailable to most presidential nominees. Being a Californian isn’t an unalloyed asset in its neighboring state, but over the past six years, Harris has spent an inordinate amount of time establishing relationships and courting local voters, dating back to the run-up to her unsuccessful 2020 presidential primary bid. Since becoming vice president, Harris has made at least a dozen visits. This year alone, she’s made a half-dozen.

Of course, it’s possible that without Scranton Joe atop the ticket, the Blue Wall becomes more compromised. The same profile that elevates Harris elsewhere could very well be a liability across the industrial Midwest, in places like Green Bay, Flint and Erie.

At the moment, the path to 270 electoral votes isn’t an either/or decision. The Harris campaign can move forward on both options. Her pick for vice president will provide the first signal as to where the campaign sees the most promise — tapping Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro or Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly or North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper would provide tacit confirmation of their approach.

The campaign will have to concentrate its firepower at some point. Hard decisions will need to be made about which states to pour resources into and which states to cut loose — a standard practice in every presidential campaign. But for the moment, the mere prospect of the electoral map opening up, rather than shrinking, is a promising development for Democrats after an unrelenting run of bad news in the presidential race.