The 2024 presidential race is far from over: 4 big GOP advantages | STAFF COMMENTARY

Democrats are energized with a new candidate at the top of the ticket, but they shouldn’t celebrate too soon.

Saturday marked 100 days until the election — an eternity in national politics. A million things could happen in this historic presidential election to shift momentum and polling several times before Nov. 5. Look at how much has happened since June 27, when Biden’s debate debacle kicked off his downward spiral. Day by day, hour by hour, calls mounted for Biden to exit the race. Two weeks later, former President Donald Trump was nearly assassinated during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. A wave of sympathy and support carried him into the Republican National Convention. Three days after Trump’s nomination speech, Biden ended his bid for reelection in a letter shared on X, formerly Twitter.

The last days of July have been consumed by Vice President Kamala Harris collecting endorsements and donations from the biggest party leaders and benefactors.

Despite bipartisan calls for unity after the attempt on Trump’s life, the nation’s two biggest political parties again seem sharply divided. Many voters feel deceived by the White House, Democrats and press about Biden’s fitness for office. And many voters also fear a second Trump term. Both sides feel this election carries enormous consequences, and it does.

Democrats are benefiting from a honeymoon effect after rallying behind Harris. Money is flowing and polls are climbing, but national polls are never the most consequential — especially in July. For example, Trump was consistently behind in 2016 and still won. And polls in July are really measuring July. Polls in August will also be unreliable. Democrats will have a post-convention boost, but then the race will likely tighten.

For those of us who pay close attention to politics, it’s hard to imagine that some Americans won’t care about this election until after Labor Day or closer to November. But I promise it’s true. Many voters are still in summer mode, and next month many families will be in back-to-school mode. While they may be aware of what’s going on with the presidential election, they may not be fully invested until closer to Election Day.

And if Democrats think they can win with fundraising and “brat,” they might find they overinflated the importance of a TikTok following. Views aren’t votes. And while Democrats have some advantages with younger voters, women, and on issues like abortion, the GOP has four big advantages that shouldn’t be ignored.

The economy

Democrats who tout improving economic numbers come off as completely out of touch to someone struggling to buy cereal. It doesn’t matter if the inflation rate is slowing down if consumers feel like their grocery bills keep going up. The abortion issue has been galvanizing for Democrats, but it doesn’t directly impact everyone the way the economy does. Consider what a voter said to me in an email this week: “I’m pro-choice, but the truth is abortion doesn’t affect me much and it’s not my top concern. I want a president who is going to make it easier for me to make ends meet.” The candidate who convinces Americans — especially those in battleground states — that they have policies and plans that will lead to a lower cost of living will be effective. That’s especially true with independents who tend to care less about the backbiting and culture wars in politics and more about how elected officials will impact their household budgets.

Public safety

Much like JD Vance is being haunted by a 2021 interview in which he questioned Harris’ fitness for office because she doesn’t have biological children, she is being dogged by a 2020 interview in which she supported the “defund the police” movement. That won’t play well with the suburban voters both parties need to win in battleground states. And though Democrats can — and love to — point to decreasing crime rates, voters don’t connect with numbers and statistics as much as politicians think they do. Americans question if they feel safe. They evaluate whether they feel comfortable going to certain places or doing certain activities. And while they don’t support the use of militarized police or excessive force, they do want their communities to have good, well-funded police departments. They usually “back the blue” and respect those who protect and serve. Republican candidates tend to benefit from voters who value law and order.

Stability

Voters sense an instability in the world, and it gives them an uneasy feeling. While there’s always room for debate about foreign policy and whether the U.S. should fund wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, it’s the feeling of instability that voters don’t like. Young Americans have been protesting the war in Gaza, where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised “total victory.” Ukraine’s challenges continue to mount after 30 months of war with Russia. Trump has said he would end the conflicts in a day. While voters may not fully believe that bold statement, they notice these wars didn’t break out on his watch. It doesn’t necessarily matter what the facts are, how Trump handled a global pandemic or whether his plans would lead to peace or prosperity. If some voters feel like the world was calmer and more stable when he was in office, that could work to his advantage in November.

The border

An overwhelming majority of Americans think the government is doing a bad job handling the U.S.-Mexico border, and many see it as a crisis. On Biden’s watch it no longer became a crisis restricted to the Sun Belt. The crisis has landed in northern states, Rust Belt states, Maryland and more. While Americans do have different views about how the crisis should be handled, there is bipartisan agreement that the current situation is poorly managed and needs to change. And though many voters see Trump’s promise to “build the wall” as more of a campaign gimmick than a plan that will fully come to fruition, they believe it’s one of his priorities. For voters who also see it as a priority, they may vote Republican in November.

Candy Woodall is the opinion editor at The Baltimore Sun. She wants to know how you feel about the 2024 election and can be reached at cwoodall@baltsun.com.