Bellwether seat dispatch: The Tory crisis could be the end of ‘nice’ Penny Mordaunt in Portsmouth
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No-one in Parliament wields a sword quite like Penny Mordaunt.
When the Tory member for Portsmouth North carried the heavy ceremonial weapon during the coronation of King Charles III, in her role as Lord President of the Privy Council, she was widely praised for her stamina.
Outshining many of the great and the good in attendance, Mordaunt’s accomplished performance of ancient pageantry saw her unofficially crowned the breakout star of that historic day last May.
But a year is a long time in politics. Now, with just days to go until the General Election, Mordaunt is fighting for her political life on Britain’s south coast.
On a baking hot day in her constituency, no-one is mentioning the sword any more. While there’s clearly still affection for Mordaunt as a local MP, there are plenty who won’t let that get in the way of their vote.
Constituents like Tony Burnham, 74, who has met Mordaunt and confirms she is “alright”. And who will Burnham vote for? “Anybody but the Tories.”
Mordaunt has already made two Tory leadership bids. If she survives the electoral hurricane predicted to sweep through the party’s ranks next week, she is seen as a possible successor to Rishi Sunak.
But when there remain almost no safe Tory seats, this is a big “if”.
A poll published this week by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus suggested the Conservatives would be relegated to third place behind the Liberal Democrats, with Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition.
The survey had the Conservatives on just 60 seats – down 305 from the 365 they won in 2019.
Mordaunt, who is Leader of the Commons, was among the potential future leadership candidates forecast to be wiped out on election night.
Why is it a bellwether seat?
Portsmouth North has voted for the winning political party in every general election since the seat was re-established in 1974. Mordaunt has held it since 2010, but with Labour on track for a landslide victory on July 4, her future here looks more than a little uncertain.
Mordaunt appears to be under no illusions: the Conservatives are very much “the underdog” in this election, she told The Independent earlier this month.
But while one of her Tory colleagues, Sir Philip Davies MP, has reportedly bet against himself (the member for Shipley, West Yorkshire, has been accused of placing an £8,000 bet that he would lose his seat),
Mordaunt, a Royal Navy reservist, has come out swinging in the contest. In heated seven-way TV debates this month, she repeatedly clashed with Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, taking a combative approach that left little doubt that she refuses to go down without a fight.
She is currently defending a majority of 15,780. Labour would need a swing of 17.2 per cent to win the seat. While this may seem a tall order, Sir Keir Starmer’s party has managed bigger swings in recent by-elections elsewhere, and Portsmouth North is now said to be regarded as a Labour battleground.
About the area
Portsmouth boasts a proud naval history, being home to the Royal Navy for centuries. Many of the British troops heading out for D-Day during the Second World War departed from the Hampshire port. In 1982, task force ships were deployed to the Falklands conflict from here, too.
But while the city’s maritime heritage brings tourists flocking to Portsmouth Historic Dockyard (home to HMS Victory) and several naval museums, these lie beyond the boundaries of the Portsmouth North constituency.
Away from the shining attractions of the self-described Great Waterfront City, some voters feel their local area is overlooked and unloved.
“It’s a slum,” says Shirley Day, 68, on London Road, the main shopping thoroughfare in the North End district. “It’s appalling and I don’t think it’s fair that people should have to live in such depressing surroundings.”
We’re standing within metres of a mobility scooter shop, an amusement arcade, a vape shop, a Lidl and an Iceland.
The local pubs seem lively enough on a weekday afternoon. Thatchers is bedecked with the flags of all the football teams playing in the Euros.
But the late former Conservative prime minister who shares the pub’s name was part of the problem, believes Day, who partly attributes the decline of the area to Margaret Thatcher “making the working class the underclass.”
In the past, the Conservatives might have hoped to win the support of someone like Day, who voted Tory in 2019 and feels Mordaunt has “done a lot” for the constituency. But she is firmly opposed to voting for them this time.
“I won’t vote Conservative or Labour,” says the cleaner. “Probably [I’ll vote for] Reform. I can’t vote for people I really don’t believe in.”
A couple of miles to the north on Cosham High Street, Caroline Tobitt, 43, is similarly disappointed by the state of the civic space beyond the door of her tattoo parlour, MorningStar. “Let us get under your skin,” reads a sign in the window. Its neighbours include a bingo hall, a Poundstretcher and a handful of charity shops.
“This is a lovely little high street and it’s been left to…” Tobitt trails off, suggesting the neglect is self-evident. Investment has gone elsewhere in the city, she says angrily.
She voted Conservative in 2019 “just because Boris Johnson stood”, thinks his ousting was “appalling” and plans to spoil her ballot on July 4.
Who are the candidates?
Mordaunt grew up in Portsmouth. Her father was born in the local Hilsea barracks and served in the Parachute Regiment. Her mother worked as a special needs teacher but died of breast cancer when Mordaunt was 15.
State-educated Mordaunt was the first of her family to go to university, studying philosophy at Reading. Before entering politics, she worked in communications. In 2015 she became the first female minister for the Armed Forces, and in 2019 the first female Defence Secretary.
But her military credentials haven’t always helped her. In 2014, she was criticised for delivering a speech to the Commons on poultry welfare in which she repeatedly inserted the word “cock” as part of a forfeit she was set by marine officers while doing her reservist training.
Though it happened a decade ago, not all her constituents are ready to forgive her. “It’s not that I don’t like [her],” says Hannah, 35, who is shopping in Ushers greengrocer on Cosham High Street. “But [that speech] was a bit distasteful. People make mistakes but since then I’ve thought ‘you’re not really taking this seriously.’”
Mordaunt, who is seen as a moderate Conservative, is going up against Labour’s Amanda Martin, also a Pompey girl (a local nickname for the city), who has worked as a teacher for 24 years. The mother-of-three has served as president of the National Education Union.
“For too long Portsmouth North has been run by Tory politicians who simply do not care about our public services and the opportunities and, to be honest, about the people who live in our communities,” she has said. “They have led from the front and been proud of the chaos and hardship they’ve caused.”
During our visit to the seat she’s contesting, The Telegraph drives to the address listed on the local Labour party website. It turns out to be the home of the local Unite union and apparently not the Labour party. Still, we meet a friendly man about to go out canvassing with Martin.
“Can we join you?” we ask.
He phones Martin to check. The answer comes back: no. Mordaunt, likewise, does not respond to requests for a chat. Both are presumably far too busy battling for victory against each other – and against the other three local candidates, who pose far less of a risk. Simon Dodd is standing for the Liberal Democrats (the biggest party on Portsmouth City Council); Duncan Stuart Robinson is standing for the Green Party and Mel Todd for Reform UK.
View from the high street
As elsewhere, it’s not hard to find those of an “anyone but the Tories” persuasion on Cosham High Street. Burnham, a retired BT engineer who says he voted for them once but “by mistake”, says he’d even elect the Monster Raving Loony Party if they stood a chance of getting the Conservatives out. He describes himself as a centrist, yet isn’t particularly enthused by what Starmer’s fairly centrist Labour party is offering.
Former Conservative voter Lisa, 52, has also had enough of the party she supported in 2019. She plans to vote for Reform UK, the rightwing populist party led by Nigel Farage.
“Farage is going to sort the country out with taxes,” she says, referring to Reform’s plans to cut taxes and some spending, which economists have said don’t add up.
Why have the Tories lost her support? “The NHS – you can’t get a doctor’s appointment and they’re not sorting that out. They’re not doing enough for the country.”
If Mordaunt was leader, she might be more tempted, she adds. “She’s actually really nice,” says the hairdresser. “But they’ve had too many chances over the years and it needs a bit of a shake-up.”
A shake-up is undoubtedly coming, but it may not be the sort Lisa wants. “I’m not sure about Labour,” she says. However, she praises Starmer as “a bit more grounded, a bit more working class.”
She adds: “The Conservatives don’t understand us working class. They don’t really help us. I’m hoping Labour will.”
But even among loyal Labour voters, it can be hard to locate much zeal for their current project. Dave Hansford, 59, a civil servant commenting only in his capacity as a PCS union representative, says he’ll vote Labour as usual. “I wouldn’t say [I’m] excited,” he says. “It would be nice to have sensible, stable politics.”
Outside Gregg’s, long-time Conservative voter Kettisha Forbes, 77, is doing the crossword with a hot drink. “I adored Boris,” she sighs. “He was a character. Of course he made mistakes, but I’m sure Winston Churchill did too, and we know what he did for the country.”
Friends who are lifelong Conservatives don’t know where to turn any more, she says; but she will vote for Mordaunt, as she feels the party is “going in the right direction.”
Back in North End, we stumble upon something even rarer: a voter expressing full-throated admiration for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. “He’s young and has the vibrancy the country needs,” says Carla Fanfair.
“He championed us through Covid and for that alone I hold him in high stature.”
What are the burning local issues?
“Portsmouth is a bit different to a lot of the other south coast cities because there’s a lot of poverty,” says Hannah. Her grandfather served in the Navy and his father died in the First World War. So it’s hardly surprising she wasn’t impressed by Sunak’s misjudged recent decision to leave the D-Day 80th anniversary commemorations in northern France early, to record an ITV interview.
“There was nothing more important he should have been doing on that day,” she says, with some emotion.
In a city with such strong Armed Forces connections, and a sizeable community of veterans, forgiveness for this error may take time. The problem for Sunak, of course, is there isn’t much time left.
A couple of voters mention the diminished number of banks on Cosham High Street – a complaint echoed in hollowed out town centres around the country – while other common concerns about housing, the cost of living and NHS waiting times are also raised.
“I’ve had skin cancer and had to wait months on the list,” says Hansford. “It was worrying waiting that amount of time.”
Tobitt has also observed the NHS crisis first hand. “Nurses are leaving,” she says. “I went to get some tests done the other week and while I was having them done, the nurse was checking job vacancies.”
Lisa, who runs her own hair salon, is annoyed by how many foreign-born barbers were allowed to set up businesses near hers. “It’s not fair on us,” she says.
Down at the international ferry port, a few drinkers sit outside The Ship & Castle pub in the fierce June sunshine. The hulking side of a passenger liner rears up in the near distance, beyond a high metal fence topped with barbed wire. We’ve reached the edge of fortress Britain but can’t quite see where it ends.
As polling day in her bellwether seat approaches, it’s possible that Mordaunt might just have some idea.
