Biden's exit blows a hole in the political rise of ambitious Democrats

Things just got a whole lot more complicated for 2028 hopefuls.

Democrats have no shortage of rising stars who were just four years away from a potential run for the White House. Now they are faced with an urgent question: Do they throw their hat into the ring now that President Joe Biden has stepped aside, or do they rally around Vice President Kamala Harris — holding out for their moment, even if it could now take eight more years?

By choosing to endorse his vice president rather than backing an open process, ambitious Democrats face a whole new host of political calculations. Harris is at a major advantage, set to inherit a built-out campaign infrastructure and millions in funding, as well as a slew of endorsements from across the Democratic Party. And another big thing on her side is that Democrats are ready to redirect their focus from intraparty squabbles to the fight to take on Donald Trump.

“We cannot afford to have any more fractures in the Democratic bone, especially when it comes to our base, because we know the opposition are unified in their mission,” said Antjuan Seawright, a South Carolina Democratic strategist. “It’s so important that we are unified, one band, one sound.”

Though many serious challengers appear to be standing down, it’s unclear if all of them will. There have been murmurs in recent weeks about a number of top Democratic governors, though they could face a potentially uphill climb in securing delegates after Biden endorsed Harris. And as for their future political futures, top Democratic strategists note that they might be better off supporting her and vying for a role in her administration, whether it be as her vice president or a member of her Cabinet.

But even that carries some risk. After all, Harris could fail. Anyone attached to a ticket that couldn’t beat Trump, who Democrats widely believe is a weak candidate, could carry that stench in 2028.

“I think it’s a complicated calculus. I think it’s, first of all, can you get 300 signatures? This is a threshold question,” said Pete Giangreco, a veteran Democratic strategist who worked on former President Barack Obama’s campaign. “The next question after that is, is it worth it? Because, in all likelihood, it’s Vice President Harris who is almost certainly going to win the nomination.”

Harris is no doubt best positioned to secure the party’s delegates in the weeks ahead. After the president’s announcement on Sunday afternoon, Biden campaign aides were told in an all-staff call that they would keep their jobs and pivot to helping Harris beat Trump, working to expand the president’s 2020 coalition that sent him to the White House. She also inherited the tens of millions of dollars that filled Biden’s campaign coffers, with the campaign moving quickly to rename itself “Harris for President” on Sunday.

But a number of top Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi didn’t explicitly throw their support behind Harris on Sunday, raising questions about which route the party will take in the days ahead. Obama said he had faith that the party would create a process that would allow for an “outstanding nominee,” in a statement that didn’t mention Harris.

“I think that people would be willing to coalesce around the vice president, but I don’t think they want a coronation. So I think that that’s what the process over the next few weeks has to be — that she shows that she’s the best candidate, she’s in the best position and she’s the best person to take on the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump,” said Mustafa Rashed, a Philadelphia-based Democratic consultant. “I think if she can nail those things, then she has a good chance to do it. But that’s not an easy undertaking. And you want the process to be quick, you want it to be thorough and you want it to be decisive.”

Two apparent strategies emerged among the 2028 hopefuls Sunday night. Some governors, like Andy Beshear of Kentucky and JB Pritzker of Illinois, held off from throwing their support behind Harris. The Illinois governor has been working behind the scenes for years preparing for a future presidential run. His political team is made up of veterans from two past political campaigns for governor, including the seasoned campaign manager Anne Caprara. The question is whether running for president risks Pritzker, who co-chaired Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2008, being seen as pushing out a woman — and a woman of color — in what would be a historic candidacy.

Unlike other potential presidential candidates, Pritzker is a billionaire who can self-fund a campaign and wouldn’t need Biden’s campaign funds to move forward. He can write a check and build infrastructure in every state and get on TV tomorrow, according to Illinois campaign veterans who were granted anonymity to speak freely about a sensitive subject.

But other Democrats like Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro — who have all been floated as top VP contenders — as well as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, moved quickly to throw their support behind Harris. The California governor’s ascension has long put him on a collision course with Harris. They both emerged from the blue melee of San Francisco politics with the help of an overlapping set of donors, mentors and consultants. Newsom has fueled presidential speculation as he has taken on the party’s national fights, lambasting Republicans and seeking to help Democrats make electoral inroads in red states.

But Newsom has also transformed himself into one of Biden’s most resolute surrogates, standing by the president even as Democratic calls for his resignation proliferated, and he has repeatedly and adamantly said he would not challenge Harris or run for president in 2024. He and Harris would have also had to compete for California donors and supporters with whom both have relationships. His quickest road to the White House would likely be Harris losing, creating an open 2028 field for Democrats.

“Anybody who has presidential aspirations, my advice to them is like, stop,” said Michael Ceraso, a veteran Democratic strategist who worked on Bernie Sanders’ and Pete Buttigieg’s campaigns. “You will be better off serving the party because people will see that. And then as that time comes, if you’re ready and available — you obviously have a lot of things that you can’t control right now — then go and run for president.”

If it’s clear in the days ahead that the party is closing in on Harris as the nominee, 2028 hopefuls will have to decide whether they’d like to run with Harris as her vice president. Giving Harris a boost where she’s vulnerable by serving as a running mate with swing-state appeal could also serve as a launching pad for one of the party’s rising stars. And if not that, there’s always the Cabinet.

“If she wins, some of them may be Cabinet members, right? So you have to look at what’s actually on the ground in front of you and make a decision about what it would involve,” Rashed said. “Do you want to be the secretary of Transportation? I mean, hell, do you want to be her vice president?”

Shia Kapos and Jeremy White contributed to this report.