Biden's out, Harris rises. How will a new nominee affect pivotal NY House races?

Joe Biden's exit from the presidential race Sunday and Kamala Harris' swift ascent in the hours following threw a curve into a bevy of competitive House races in New York that are critical to this fall's struggle for power in Washington.

The president's sagging poll numbers after a dismal debate performance last month were seen as troubling signs for down-ballot Democrats in federal and state races around the U.S.

But that political picture shifted rapidly after Biden pulled out on Sunday. Democrats quickly coalesced around his vice president, and a tidal wave of campaign donations washed into her coffers.

What will a new Democratic standard bearer mean for New York's battleground races? More voter enthusiasm for Democrats in those contests, but probably not enough to assure victory or even change the dynamics all that much, political observers said on Monday.

With Biden out and Harris rising, have NY's hot House races changed?

"It takes one significant negative away, but it doesn't guarantee that everything works out OK," Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime Democratic strategist, said of Biden's departure.

Harris, a former California senator and attorney general, is Biden's all-but-certain replacement in the race after a cascade of Democrats endorsed her on Sunday and Monday and every other potential rival for the job backed her as well. Biden had quit the race on Sunday after weeks of prodding following the June 27 debate.

In New York, at least four swing-district Democrats endorsed Harris on Monday after they and others with tough House races ahead initially held off. One was Rep. Pat Ryan, a Hudson Valley Democrat who had made an early public plea for Biden to step aside.

"The choice is clear, and the contrast is stark," Ryan posted on X, after listing the contrasts between Harris on abortion rights and other topics. "Vice President Harris fights for freedom. Trump wants to take it away."

Who in NY endorsed Harris so far? Which NY Dem delegates have supported Harris so far? Which haven't?

His Republican challenger, Alison Esposito, had already dismissed the idea that replacing Biden would spare Democrats "their demise in the November election." In an X post on Sunday, she argued their record on the economy, criminal justice reforms and immigration mattered more than their presidential candidate.

"Democrats can choose ANYONE they want at the top of their ticket," she wrote.

Harris can make stronger case for abortion rights

But Sheinkopf pointed to one likely gain for down-ballot Democrats if Harris is the nominee. As a woman, he said, she can make a stronger case for abortion rights than Biden could, capitalizing on an issue that she and other Democrats have stressed and see as a winning issue for their side.

Scott Minkoff, a SUNY New Paltz political science professor, saw another advantage: the removal of Biden's age as a difficult issue that down-ballot Democrats must confront in their campaigns. That ended once the 81-year-old president passed the torch to 59-year-old Harris, who's almost two decades younger than Trump.

Ryan's plea Pat Ryan is first House Democrat from New York to call for Biden to step aside

Harris a shot in the arm for Democratic voters?

But the biggest edge it gave Democrats was an enthusiasm surge for the coming weeks of campaigning, including a gusher of donations that will filter down to congressional and state races, Minkoff said. That will matter more than whose name appears at the top of ballots when voters go to the polls on Nov. 5.

"I think it's about mobilizing voters and increasing voter enthusiasm for the Democratic side," he said.

But the effect on New York's swing House races will be limited, Minkoff predicted. Regardless of who the Democratic nominee is, he said, Republicans will go after Democrats on immigration and crime — issues that have given Democrats trouble in suburban swing districts outside New York City.

"I don't think this fundamentally alters their races," he said.

What's ahead for NY's delegates? Biden drops out of presidential race. Do NY delegates have to vote for Biden or Harris?

As many as seven of New York's House races may be tight this fall — three of them entirely or partly in the Hudson Valley, including Ryan's 18th District. Former Rep. Mondaire Jones, who's running to unseat GOP Rep. Mike Lawler in the 17th District, endorsed Harris Monday night. Josh Riley, the Democrat taking on GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro in the 19th District, hasn't endorsed her.

Rep. Tom Suozzi, the Democrat who flipped a Republican-held seat on Long Island and in Queens in a special election this year, also hadn't endorsed Harris. That went against the grain in his party. By Monday afternoon, 13 of 16 House Democrats from New York had all declared their support for the vice president.

All 16 House Democrats are among the 307 New York delegates who will nominate a presidential candidate at or before the Democratic convention in Chicago, which begins Aug. 19. Numerous other delegates, including Gov. Kathy Hochul and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, also endorsed Harris on Sunday and Monday. Then, after the state's delegates held a virtual meeting Monday night, the Democratic Party announced that the entire delegation had backed Harris.

“As the state with the second most Democratic delegates in the country, I’m so proud of New York’s delegation for joining me to support Vice President Harris,”Hochul said in a statement afterward.

Chris McKenna covers government and politics for The Journal News and USA Today Network. Reach him at cmckenna@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Harris as Democratic nominee: What it means for pivotal NY House races