California pollster makes case for Gavin Newsom

The Scoop

Supporters of California Governor Gavin Newsom are circulating a polling memo making the case for the Democratic nomination for president.

The memo, which was shared with Newsom’s donors and political supporters before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race Sunday, analyzes seven recent public polls to conclude that Newsom is “one of the strongest possible candidates” and “as strong if not stronger as any of the top Democrats being mentioned as a potential candidate,” performing similarly to Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris and outperforming Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

“Newsom has better net favorability ratings and lower negatives than Biden and Harris” the California pollster Ben Tulchin wrote in the July 18 memo, addressed to Newsom. Tulchin, who has worked for Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris in the past, said he sent the memo independently because he was concerned about the direction of the party.

Newsom has told supporters before Sunday that he wouldn’t challenge Biden, a person familiar with those conversations said.

“While the future remains unpredictable and there may not be an opportunity for the Governor to run this election, nevertheless we thought it would be helpful if you had relevant data along with key talking points to be able to make the case that Newsom can win should such an opportunity present itself,” Tulchin writes.

He said in an interview that both candidates are stronger than Biden would have been.

“Gavin has strengths, Kamala has strength with younger voters and Black voters,” he said. “It’s just trying to get the party to be open to recognizing that we’re better with somebody else.”

Ben’s view

Vice President Kamala Harris, endorsed by the president and gathering momentum among Democrats, appears on track to be the Democratic nominee.

But whether she faces a convention challenge will be up to other potential candidates.

Newsom, with his national profile, media savvy, and fundraising ability, is in some sense the only other Democrat obviously able to step onto the national stage.

And as the memo suggests, some around him would like him to seize the moment.

Room for Disagreement

Newsom has his doubters in California as well, CalMatters found recently.

“Gavin Newsom has become a more politically polarized candidate in a more politically polarized time,” one pollster noted. “That’s one thing that a governor experiences when they put themselves in the national spotlight.”

Notable

• Newsom is one of the Democratic Party’s most astute observers of conservative media, Max Tani wrote.

• How does this thing actually work? Dave Weigel has answers.

• Newsom was, until today, a fierce defender of Biden’s campaign.

• An LA Magazine profile of Newsom and Harris called them ”the best of frenemies.”