Chicago temperatures to soar to mid-80s as rain may end spring’s record dry spell

It will feel “a lot more like summer” in Chicago by the end of the week, with high temperatures forecast in the mid-80s starting Thursday as Chicago finally may get a respite from what’s been the city’s driest spring on record, according to the National Weather Service.

Chances of showers in the first half of the week will give way to high temperatures in the mid-80s starting Thursday and lasting through at least Sunday, according to the weather service. Following an uncharacteristically dry spring, Tuesday brings the “best chance” of rainfall, with scattered chances of precipitation during the remainder of the week, said meteorologist Rafal Ogorek. Tuesday’s forecast holds an 80% chance of showers amounting to between a tenth and quarter of an inch of rain.

“Probably today and tomorrow are going to be the last days in the 60s,” Ogorek said. “We’re probably not going to go back to well below normal temperatures, like we’ve seen recently, for the foreseeable future.”

With just 15 days left in meteorological spring, which spans from March 1 to May 31, spring 2021 is the driest on record since records started being kept in 1871, according to the weather service. Since the start of March, Chicago has only received 2.32 inches of rain, more than 6 inches below normal. Water levels in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron have dropped 15 inches in the past 12 months, according to the weather service.

This year comes on the heels of five consecutive wet springs with heavy rainfall that nearly broke the record in the other direction. Spring 2020 brought nearly 17 inches of rainfall in Chicago, according to the weather service.

Any thunderstorms Monday are expected to remain south of Interstate 80, with a low risk of flooding, according to the weather service. Wind gusts as high as 20 mph in Chicago are forecast Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, according to the weather service.

While the Chicago area has had a drier spring than usual, areas south of Chicago have accumulated more rain in May than in previous years, Ogorek said.

With scattered showers sprinkled throughout the week, it is “unlikely” that spring of 2021 will remain in its current position as the driest on record, the weather service said. The weather pattern across the central U.S. is forecast to be “a bit more active” this week and next, likely carrying “a bit more rain” than seen so far this spring, Ogorek said.

The next driest spring was in 1887, when the city received 2.73 inches of rain, according to the weather service.

Still, that Chicago will get enough rainfall to move spring 2021 from the record-holding position of the driest on record is “not a guarantee,” Ogorek said.

cproctor@chicagotribune.com

Twitter @ceproctor23