CMS superintendent expects to ‘meet 100%’ of 5-year goals. Is that realistic?

Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools’ new strategic plan revealed this month offers different student goals, but in several ways it echoes old plans for student success. Some are doubtful it will succeed.

The 2024-29 plan from Superintendent Crystal Hill, hired last year, wants to improve literacy, high school math performance and preparedness for life after graduation. It also calls for improvements to facilities and technology. According to Hill, the plan will take the district to “unprecedented levels of excellence without exception.”

“This initiative aligns with the district’s commitment to enhancing educational opportunities and ensuring the well-being of all students,” CMS said in a news release.

Here's our latest accountability reporting

Reality Check reflects the Charlotte Observer’s commitment to holding those in power accountable. Here are three of our stories from this week:

→ Irate CLT passengers keep griping about TSA lines. What’s behind all the delays?

→ Marshals task force in Charlotte police shootout wasn’t using body cameras, lawyer says

→ CMS superintendent expects to ‘meet 100%’ of 5-year goals. Is that realistic?

The new plan shares some priorities with one from 2019. Both call for a consistent K-12 curriculum and share goals around closing achievement gaps between student groups, providing more social and emotional support to students and focusing on staff professional development.

A nonprofit that pioneered a key tagline in the plan says CMS may be blazing a new trail in North Carolina public education by being one of the first districts to add the phrase to its plan. An academic and a prominent Mecklenburg County official, meanwhile, are raising questions about the plan setting unrealistic goals.

The Three E’s

One difference in the new plan is a focus on the number of students on track to become “enrolled, enlisted or employed,” after graduation. But past data on these measures is limited, so CMS is taking a year to determine where students are starting out now.

Education advocacy nonprofit MyFutureNC developed the “3E” tagline for its financial summit last year in hopes of helping students explore options after high school.

CMS is one of the first districts in the state to incorporate it into its strategic plan, according to MyFutureNC Deputy Director Jessica Swinecki.

“While I am personally unaware of other districts who have included this measurement in their strategic plans, I am excited that CMS is committed to this goal and hope others will follow suit,” Swinecki said.

It can be hard to measure, though. While data is available about on-time college enrollment by county and school district, no such data about enlistment and employment rates by district is currently available.

CMS says it’s working on picking things to monitor throughout this school year to develop a goal for the three E’s this time next year.

Reading and literacy

CMS’ reading and literacy plans call for increases between 4% and 5% on standardized tests – monumental gains by most estimates. School districts rarely see consistent annual increases of even 3% in reading and literacy.

Hill says she’s confident the district can meet its ambitious goals.

“The thoughtful work that went into this plan resulted in a strategy that is both ambitious and realistic,” Hill said.

However, some experts disagree.

“I don’t think it’s likely these goals are achievable in this time frame,” said Donal Mulcahy, Wake Forest University education professor. Mulcahy cautions that using data, like that from DIBELS tests, can be manipulated to show success, but it doesn’t mean students know how to read and comprehend material.

CMS leaders say the goals will be met by offering pre-K programs with better training for teachers and social-emotional learning programs that enhance early literacy skills. To improve test scores, CMS wants to add more non-fiction reading into other subjects like history and science.

However, some county leaders say the plan is too vague.

“This plan has hardly any specifics about reading goals that have a track record of working,” said Arthur Griffin, a Mecklenburg County commissioner and former CMS school board member. “Without a good plan they certainly aren’t reaching these goals. Even with a good plan, I doubt they would achieve what they are setting out to do.”

Third grade is especially important because it’s considered the dividing line between learning to read and reading to learn.

Roughly 75% of students who don’t read on grade level by the end of third grade never catch up, according to Read Charlotte, a nonprofit dedicated to improving children’s reading in Mecklenburg. Those students are four times more likely to drop out of school, earn less money and end up in the criminal justice system.

By comparison, 96% of students who read on grade level by the end of third grade will graduate from high school.

“Knowing how to read and comprehend is vital for a child’s development,” said Nikki Keith, CEO of Freedom School Partners, a Charlotte nonprofit that offers literacy programs. “Study after study shows that the better a person can read the more likely they are for success in life in the short, medium and long term.”

Gap for Black, Hispanic students

The children who are most at-risk for not being at or above grade-level in reading are often those from low-income families, those with have disabilities and those who are not fluent in English. District data also shows an achievement gap, with Black and Hispanic students having lower reading scores on average than white students.

For the 2022-23 school year in CMS, 39% of students with disabilities, 49% of multilingual students, 52% of Hispanic students and 63% of Black students met K-2 literacy benchmarks.

“Literacy has remained low in CMS for a long time, especially for students of color,” Griffin said. “CMS needs to aim higher and make sure every student, not just the wealthy, can have a shot at greatness.”

CMS failed to meet its five-year student goals that expire this October and remains behind other N.C. districts in catching up from pandemic-related learning losses. But it’s problems aren’t unique. For instance, reading EOG scores in Cumberland County Schools missed targets for passage by about 5% in the last two school years.

Still, CMS superintendent Crystal Hill remains confident the school district will meet its goals.

“We expect to achieve those goals each year, 100%,” Hill told The Charlotte Observer. “If we can stick to our plan and implement our plan and progress-monitor our plan along with making sure that each individual entity is a wrap-around for us… if all of those things come together and we work as one, we absolutely will meet our goal.”