Colorado State University changes 2024 hurricane season forecast. See predicted Florida impact

Colorado State University meteorologists released an updated forecast Tuesday, Aug. 6, for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, the day after Hurricane Debby made landfall in Steinhatchee in Florida's Big Bend.

Forecasters reduced the number of named storms down slightly from the July forecast, from 25 to 23 named storms. All other numbers remained the same, including the predicted number of major hurricanes, six.

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A major hurricane is one that has sustained winds of at least 111 mph, which is a Category 3 hurricane or higher.

"We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," CSU said.

Extremely warm water temperatures provide an environment allowing hurricanes to form and intensify, forecasters said. The presence of La Niña brings less wind shear. Wind shear helps prevent storms from developing and intensifying.

Every forecast for the 2024 season has predicted an above-normal season, with AccuWeather forecasters going as far as saying it's possible the 2020 record of 30 named storms could be broken.

Colorado State University predicting 23 named storms for 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

"We have maintained our forecast for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. We have reduced our forecast number of named storms slightly but have maintained all other numbers from our July update," CSU said.

The August forecast calls for:

• Named storms: 23

• Hurricanes: 12

• Major hurricanes: 6

What are the probabilities of at least 1 major hurricane making US, Florida landfall?

CSU is predicting:

• Entire continental U.S. coastline: 56%

  • The average from 1880-2020 is 43%

• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key): 30%

  • The average from 1880-2020 is 21%

• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key) westward to Brownsville: 38%

  • The average from 1880-2020 is 27%

What are the probabilities of at least 1 major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean?

• 61%

  • The average from 1880-2020 is 47%

How does the CSU August prediction compare to earlier forecasts?

Here's what Colorado State University forecasters predicted for the season in their July 9 forecast:

• Named storms: 25 (average is 14.4)

• Hurricanes: 12 (average is 7.2)

• Major hurricanes: 6 (average is 3.2)

Comparing June and July hurricane season forecasts

Here's a side-by-side comparison of CSU's July prediction for this hurricane season with the one issued on June 11. June's forecast was the same as the university's first prediction released in April.

• Named storms, June vs July: 23, increased to 25

• Hurricanes, June vs July: 11, increased to 12

• Major hurricanes, June vs July: 5, increased to 6

Hurricane Beryl likely 'harbinger' of what to expect this year

"Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season," Colorado State University said in its forecast.

"Deep tropical hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean (such as we saw with Beryl) is often associated with hyperactive seasons."

Hurricane Debby made landfall Aug. 5 as Category 1 hurricane

Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida in the Florida Big Bend area as a Category 1 hurricane around 7 a.m. Monday.

Sustained winds were 80 mph, making Debby a Category 1 hurricane at the time of landfall. Landfall came less than 12 hours after Debby strengthened from a tropical storm into a hurricane.

➤ Power outages: Number of customers without electricity in Florida

Although winds had already dropped to 75 mph by 8 a.m., forecasters warned life-threatening storm surge and "potentially catastrophic rainfall" are expected before Debby finishes with Florida and as it heads toward Georgia and the Carolinas.

Debby is expected to bring 6 to 12 inches of rain to Florida, with some areas seeing up to 18 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday morning.

"Rainfall across this zone may contend with or surpass those historic, 100-year values if even around a foot of rain falls within 72 hours," AccuWeather said. Forecasters there predicted rainfall in the Southeast could hit 32 inches in some areas.

National Hurricane Center's forecast for 2024 season

National Hurricane Center: The National Hurricane Center is predicting an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance for a below-normal season.

NHC forecasters predict:

• 17-25 named storms

• 8-13 hurricanes

• 4-7 major hurricanes

AccuWeather's forecast for 2024 season

AccuWeather: AccuWeather is predicting this season has the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in one season set in 2020.

• 20-25 named storms

• 8-12 hurricanes

• 4-7 major hurricanes

• 4-6 direct U.S. impacts

Why is the 2024 hurricane season expected to be so busy?

Indications as early as February have had forecasters on edge, predicting it will be an active season because of the combination of La Niña and record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic basin. The two together pack a powerful punch when it comes to hurricanes.

"La Niña typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity," Colorado State forecasters said. La Niña lacks the wind shear associated with El Niño that helps tear apart developing storms or keep others from intensifying.

"Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season."

Those warm Atlantic waters provide an environment favorable for both the development and intensification of hurricanes, CSU said.

What is the average number of hurricanes in a hurricane season?

Based on averages from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14.4 named storms, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The average number of hurricanes is 7.2 and the average number of major hurricanes is 3.2, CSU said. That makes predictions for 2024 well above the average.

The first named storm typically forms in mid to late June, the first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September, although there have been exceptions to all of these.

Countdown clock: When will 2024 hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season started June 1. It'll end Nov. 30, although storms can and have occurred outside of those dates.

Hurricane tracker: How to track tropical storms, hurricanes

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When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Next Florida sales tax holiday coming Aug. 24

"Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them," CSU said.

"Preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

A second two-week period to save on hurricane supplies will run from Aug. 24 to Sept. 6 in Florida. Save on hurricane supplies ranging from batteries and lanterns to pet and cleaning supplies.

This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: CSU 2024 hurricane season forecast changes. Busiest months arrive