Could Biden’s weak debate performance hurt down-ballot Democrats?

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JUNE 27: U.S. President Joe Biden participates in the CNN Presidential Debate at the CNN Studios on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. President Biden and Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump are facing off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 campaign. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

As Democrats reel from President Joe Biden’s befuddled debate performance last week, political strategists are trying to weigh the impact the new narrative in the presidential election could have on competitive down-ballot races.

In Maryland, Republicans believe Biden’s shaky showing will energize their voters in the 6th Congressional District – far and away the state’s most competitive – and possibly in the high-profile open-seat Senate election as well.

“What happened Thursday night only benefits Republicans, and I would say up and down the ballot,” said Jim Burton, a GOP strategist and pollster, and former executive director of the Maryland Republican Party. “If Democrats are deflated – and they are – their voter modeling energy is mirroring the president’s energy.”

Democrats are already obsessing over Biden’s diminished standing in his rematch with former President Donald Trump. A Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Monday found that 41% of Democrats believe Biden should be replaced as their nominee for president. The poll did not, however, include a head-to-head matchup between Biden and Trump.

National media have been full of stories in recent days about how Democrats in tight Senate races and swing congressional districts are trying to distance themselves from Biden – and how Republican operatives are trying to tether their Democratic opponents to the president. With control of the Senate and House at stake this November, Democrats are feverishly polling key races to see if there has been a drop-off of support for their candidates as a result of Biden’s newly exposed political vulnerability.

The National Republican Congressional Committee on Monday began airing videos of Democratic incumbents in swing districts refusing to answer questions about Biden’s mental acuity.

“Extreme House Democrats watched Joe Biden destroy their dream of a House majority at the debate,” the NRCC wrote on the social media platform X. “They still think he is fit to serve.”

Maryland, a reliably blue state in White House elections, has two competitive congressional contests on tap this November – the Senate race between former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D), and the 6th District race with former Del. Neil Parrott (R) and former U.S. Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney (D).

Democratic leaders believe Alsobrooks and Delaney are strong nominees, but some concede that a lack of enthusiasm about the top of the ticket could potentially impact races in Maryland and beyond.

“One of my biggest worries is people who decide not to vote, and as a result, down-ballot [Democratic candidates] may suffer – in Maryland and nationwide,” said Terry Lierman, a former state Democratic chair. “This worries me as it relates to our taking back the House and keeping the Senate.”

The Maryland Senate race, featuring a unique and popular Republican in Hogan, has a dynamic all its own – which is not to say that it couldn’t be impacted by the outcome of the presidential election. But the 6th District contest, in a district that would have given Biden a 9.8-point victory in 2020 under its current boundaries, could be especially susceptible to national trends.

In the weeks leading up to the 2022 election, Parrott, then as now the GOP nominee, was thought to be gaining swiftly on the Democratic incumbent, U.S. Rep. David Trone, as national polls showed Republicans surging. In the end, he wound up losing by more than 9 points, as Republican performance in most places in the country fell well short of expectations.

The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia Center for Politics have put the 6th District in the “likely Democratic” category, meaning they believe Delaney is likely to hold Trone’s seat for the Democrats. Just 10 days ago, another national political tipsheet, Inside Elections, moved Maryland 6 from the “likely Democratic” to the “safe Democratic” column.

“If Parrott wins, it’s because the bottom has fallen out from underneath Democrats,” Inside Elections wrote.

Parrott in an interview Monday said he sees the ground shifting in the district since last week’s presidential debate. But he conceded that the ground won’t settle until it’s clear whether Biden will remain in the presidential contest.

“We don’t know what’s going to happen,” Parrott said. “This puts a lot of uncertainty into a lot of races. We don’t know who the Democrats are going to put up to be their presidential nominee. It’s going to impact all kinds of races down-ballot – we just don’t know how.”

Parrott said that even if Biden steps down as the Democratic candidate, his replacement will largely be supportive of the president’s policies – which, he argued, people in the 6th District have come to oppose.

“(California Gov.) Gavin Newsom, (Michigan Gov.) Gretchen Whitmer, (former first lady) Michelle Obama – the policies of all these folks are the same and they’re going to be rejected by the voters,” Parrott said.

Burton, the GOP strategist, said Parrott could also benefit because Delaney is a veteran of the Biden administration, who should be forced to answer for unpopular Biden policies.

Through a spokesperson, Delaney’s campaign declined to comment Monday about the impact of Biden’s debate performance on the 6th District race. The candidate herself spent time on X over the weekend drawing a contrast between her support of abortion rights and Parrott’s pro-life views.

“I am a mom of four that almost died from an ectopic pregnancy, and likely would have had @neilparrott had his way in the state legislature,” she wrote.

Democrats stick to tried-and-true campaign themes

That tactic is consistent with what other Democratic congressional candidates are doing, generally and in the wake of the presidential debate. For now, they are sticking to their talking points on abortion – a winning issue for Democrats in 2022 and more recent elections – and continuing to try to highlight Trump’s extremism and perceived personal and political instability.

A string of recent decisions from the U.S. Supreme Court is also fueling Democrats’ ire and pleas to vote for them, to counteract rulings that could dismantle government regulations and boost unchecked presidential authority.

Gina Ford, a spokesperson for Alsobrooks, said Monday the basic contours of the Maryland Senate race – and national policy debates – remain unchanged.

“The president had an unfortunate debate,” she said. “Donald Trump had an awful presidency. Marylanders not only understand the difference but are painfully aware of the dangers Donald Trump and a Republican majority in the Senate pose to our state and our country. This race in Maryland will determine who holds the majority.”

A Hogan campaign spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment Monday. Hogan also appeared to be staying on message in the aftermath of the White House debate, with missives to supporters on familiar themes like tax hikes and “Maryland’s skyrocketing budget deficit.”

Burton said Hogan can contrast his strong record of leadership as governor with Biden’s weak debate performance, because the president “showed no leadership.”

The Hogan-Alsobrooks race is unusual given the former governor’s relative popularity and past ability to attract Democratic and nonaffiliated voters. But Hogan fans will concede that despite his ability to win two gubernatorial elections, running a Senate race in a presidential year, with a constitutional amendment on abortion on the ballot this November, is an uphill battle – even with Hogan’s regular criticism of Trump.

Some political strategists have suggested that Hogan might actually do better in Maryland if voters believe Biden is going to be reelected, because they might then be less reluctant to support a Republican with Hogan’s profile under those circumstances.

A poll released last week, before the presidential debate, showed Alsobrooks 8 points ahead of Hogan in a multicandidate general election and also showed Biden topping Trump 56% to 30% in Maryland. That’s a wide margin but suggests Biden is running a few ticks behind where he was in 2020, when he beat Trump 65% to 32%. In some swing states, those few points could prove crucial in close down-ballot races.

But Mileah Kromer, a political science professor and director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College, predicted that between gerrymandered districts, solid Democratic nominees for open seats, and the Republicans’ fealty to Trump, Democrats in Maryland do not need to worry about a weaker Biden.

“Moderate and conservative Democrats are the swing voters in Maryland – but they hate Trump,” said Kromer, a pollster and author of a book on Hogan. “Democrats would only have to worry if they had a different Republican candidate [for president]. Imagine if they were running against Nikki Haley. The negative attention that Biden is getting for his debate performance ignores the fact that Trump is Trump – a very known commodity that Democrats don’t want to vote for.”

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