Could Milton become a Category 5 hurricane? It's almost there already

C. A. Bridges, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
·5 min read
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Milton spun up from a tropical storm to a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph sustained winds in less than a day, and more strengthening is expected as it crosses the warmer-than-usual waters of the Gulf of Mexico to slam into Florida.

Could it become a Cat 5?

What is a Category 5 hurricane?

The National Hurricane Center measures hurricanes on a scale from 1 to 5 based on the estimated intensity and potential for damage. It's called the Saffir-Simpson scale. Here's how they describe it:

  • Category 1: Winds 74-95 mph. Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days. Irene of 1999, Katrina of 2005, and several others were Category One hurricanes at landfall in South Florida.

  • Category 2: Winds 96-110 mph. Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Frances of 2004 was a Category Two when it hit just north of Palm Beach County, along with at least 10 other hurricanes which have struck South Florida since 1894.

  • Category 3: Winds 111-129 mph. Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes. Unnamed hurricanes of 1909, 1910, 1929, 1933, 1945, and 1949 were all Category 3 storms when they struck South Florida, as were King of 1950, Betsy of 1965, Jeanne of 2004, and Irma of 2017.

  • Category 4: Winds 130-156 mph. Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The 1888, 1900, 1919, 1926 Great Miami, 1928 Lake Okeechobee/Palm Beach, 1947, Donna of 1960 made landfall in South Florida as Category Four hurricanes, as did last month's Hurricane Helene, the fourth deadliest hurricane to hit the continental US since 1950.

  • Category 5: Winds 157 mph or higher. Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The Keys Hurricane of 1935 and Andrew of 1992 made landfall in South Florida as Category Five hurricanes.

Could Milton become a Cat 5 hurricane?

As of the 5 a.m. EDT Monday update, Milton was forecast to strengthen into a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane with winds up to 155 mph by Tuesday morning, according to the NHC. Instead, it surged up to 150 mph winds 24 hours earlier than expected, and more strengthening is still possible.

However, dry air and wind shear is expected to weaken it somewhat before it makes landfall somewhere on the Florida coast Wednesday.

We just don't know how much, and the storm is just under Cat 5 level already so it's certainly possible. The NHC will continue monitoring.

But whatever number the storm hits, the potential for life-threatening storm surge, extensive flooding, punishing winds and potential tornadoes remains.

"Milton has the potential to become one of Florida's most damaging and costly hurricanes, bringing a variety of life-threatening dangers," said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. "This includes an extreme storm surge of 10-15 feet along and near the coast, including in the Tampa Bay area, destructive winds and major flooding to one of the most densely populated areas of Florida, the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando."

Have Category 5 hurricanes hit Florida before?

  • Hurricane Ian swept across the Caribbean and Cuba, swamped Florida and moved up into the Carolinas in 2022, causing an estimated 160 deaths and $113 billion in damages. With 150 of the deaths occurring in Florida, Ian was the deadliest hurricane to hit the Sunshine State since the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and the costliest ever. It peaked at Cat 5 in the Gulf but weakened slightly to a Cat 4 before making landfall.

  • Hurricane Michael tore into the Florida Panhandle as a Cat 5 hurricane in 2018 and caused an estimated $25 billion in damage and 74 deaths, destroying businesses and homes with massive storm surge. An estimated

  • Hurricane Irma hit the state as a Cat 4 in 2017 after peaking as a Cat 5, ultimately causing the deaths of 134 people across the Caribbean and the eastern U.S. and an estimated 77.2 billion in damages. Irma had winds of 130 mph when it hit the Florida Keys and was a Cat 3 when it made another landfall in Marco Island. More than 73% of the state was without power at one point.

  • Hurricane Andrew pounded Florida in 1992 as a Cat 5 hurricane and is still the most destructive hurricane to hit the state. Altogether with damages from the Bahamas and the Southeastern U.S. more than 63,000 homes were destroyed and more than 124,000 others were damaged, causing $27.3 billion in damages. An estimated 65 people died from the storm, 44 of them in Florida.

  • The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane held the records for most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin for decades. It hit the upper Florida Keys as a Cat 5 with a storm surge of 18 to 20 feet, destroying the town of Islamorada and leaving a path of destruction across the Keys, nearly wiping some areas clean of buildings. It caused an estimated $100 million in damages (in 1935 dollars) and caused 423 deaths.

This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane Milton a Cat 5? Here are the Cat 5 storms that hit Florida