The debate was painful … no matter who you support

Between Joe Biden’s displaying his stuttering disability and Donald Trump’s bare-faced lying, the so-called debate was painful … no matter who you support.

Those in Joe Biden’s camp were encouraged by his accomplishments over the past near four years — even though his stuttering took the main stage and made some of what he was saying sound like gibberish. It was not made better by his glassy-eyed appearance, which looked like the way I feel after taking cold medicine. This is not what anyone expected. It clearly showed that even the president of the United States is human.

Supporters of Donald Trump could not help but be astounded by the amount of lying that came out of his mouth. Analysts, who are considered by both sides to be unbiased, counted more than 50 bare-faced lies put forth by Donald Trump during the debate. He even lied about situations and events that many viewers of the debate had seen with their own eyes.

In short, Joe Biden’s stuttering disability and glassy-eyed appearance make him a bad debater. And Donald Trump’s predisposition to pathological lying makes him not trustworthy, a candidate for psychological assistance and, if not, then at least intensive training in ethics. I write these observations without prejudice to either candidate.

So then who will win in November? Honestly, the jury is still out as the campaigns do not get into full swing until September, when many voters start to pay attention. In the meantime, here is my prognostication.

The Democratic candidate with the highest chance of beating Donald Trump remains Joe Biden, primarily due to his incumbency advantage and previous victory over Donald Trump in 2020. Despite concerns about his age and mental fitness, Joe Biden's current position as president and his ability to garner support in key swing states make him a strong contender.

However, other potential candidates like Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer could also pose significant challenges to Donald Trump, depending on their ability to mobilize the Democratic base and appeal to swing voters.

Democratic party influencers and contributors will soon choose their best candidate. Right now Joe Biden leads in the polls that indicate an electoral college victory. But it's four months out until the election and keeping Joe Biden on the ticket may be risky.

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Here is my thinking.

Predicting the outcome of a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden has more to do with the outcome of the Electoral College than about the outcome of the popular vote. I am considering the current polling data, historical voting patterns and key battleground states.

Joe Biden has the incumbency advantage. He is the sitting president, although concerns about his age, stuttering tendency and approval ratings could mitigate this benefit.

Recent polls don’t offer many clues, as both Joe Biden and Donald Trump lead in different surveys. The overall national polling average tends to show a close contest.

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Swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia will be crucial. Joe Biden won these states in 2020, but today they remain competitive, with Donald Trump showing strength in some recent polls.

Based on current data and trends, the projected outcome of the electoral college could be very close. Right now the safe Democratic states include California, New York, Illinois, etc. (around 200 electoral votes) compared with safe Republican states of Texas, Florida, Ohio, and a couple more (around 180 electoral votes). The battleground states that will make the difference are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina (around 158 electoral votes).

Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes, went for Joe Biden in 2020 and is currently leaning Democratic.

Michigan has 16 electoral votes, went for Joe Biden in 2020 and is also currently leaning Democratic.

Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes, went for Joe Biden in 2020 and is now a toss-up.

Arizona has 11 electoral votes, went for Joe Biden in 2020 and is now a toss-up.

Georgia has 16 electoral votes, went for Joe Biden in 2020 and is now a toss-up.

North Carolina has 15 electoral votes, went for Donald Trump in 2020 and is now a toss-up.

The bottom line is this. If Joe Biden retains his 2020 wins and manages to hold on to the key battlegrounds, he could secure the election with around 306 electoral votes. If Donald Trump flips a few key battlegrounds like Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia, he could win with around 279 electoral votes.

Therefore the outcome of a Donald Trump versus Joe Biden rematch in 2024 will likely hinge on a few key battleground states. The race is expected to be very competitive, with both candidates having viable paths to securing the necessary 270 electoral votes. The final outcome will depend on the final selection of party candidates, voter turnout, forthcoming campaign strategies and any significant political developments leading up to the election.

Oh, and one final thought, the idea of replacing Joe Biden with another last-minute candidate who does not suffer from a stuttering disability, or for that matter of replacing Donald Trump with a candidate who does not suffer from a pathological liar disorder, are politically dangerous moves. Both candidates have significant support and are fighting over a relatively small swath of undecided voters.

Bill Gindlesperger is a central Pennsylvanian, Dickinson College graduate, Pennsylvania System Of Higher Education (PASSHE) Governor, former Shippensburg University Trustee, awarded numerous patents, as well as Founder and Chairman of eLynxx Solutions. eLynxx provides cloud-software for sourcing and managing print and mail marketing. He is a board member, campaign advisor, successful entrepreneur, published author and commentator. He can be reached at Bill.Gindlesperger@eLynxx.com.

This article originally appeared on The Herald-Mail: The debate was painful … no matter who you support