Democrats' VP chatter turns to swing state governors. Which could turn their state blue?

As Kamala Harris appears destined to seize the Democratic nomination for president, conversations over her potential running mate are swirling around several key governors who could help boost the ticket’s chances in critical battleground states and lift down-ballot candidates in November.

Swing-state governors such as Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro and North Carolina’s Roy Cooper have endorsed Harris’ presidential run and are among those frequently discussed as possible VP contenders. Neither have ruled out joining a Harris ticket.

Their states are key battlegrounds in the fall, and Pennsylvania in particular has the power to sway the outcome of the presidential race.

Gov. Andy Beshear has also drawn attention as a Democratic governor who won reelection in a deep red state and could help broaden Harris’ appeal.

Could a homegrown candidate in the No. 2 spot help Democrats reframe the race and put their home states into play, both up and down the ticket?

“I think it would only help in those states,” said Jessica Taylor, an analyst and governors editor with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

“Harris has the potential to generate, I think, more enthusiasm among Democratic base voters: young voters, Black voters in Philadelphia,” Taylor said. “And I think someone like Shapiro could also bring in some more of those blue collar, rural voters too. And you know, that's the same types of voters they need to appeal to in Michigan and Wisconsin as well.”

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer appears to have removed herself from the conversation, telling reporters Monday she doesn’t plan to leave Michigan, another top battleground state, for a spot on the presidential ticket.

Whitmer has thrown her support behind Harris, putting to bed speculation that she might seek the top nomination herself.

Harris has quickly consolidated support from Democrats across the country, and she’s won the endorsements of many Democratic governors – some of whom, like Whitmer, could have challenged her for the presidential nomination.

More: Kamala Harris’ VP pick: Who’s up and who’s down on her running mate list?

Now the conversation shifts to who Harris may tap as a running mate and what credentials that person brings to help balance out the ticket.

Republicans are likely to start attacking Harris as a West Coast liberal, Taylor said. And a Midwestern everyman could help shore up Democrats’ appeal in battleground states.

“Democrats have a historic ticket in front of them,” said Mike Ceraso, a Democratic strategist and founder of the communications firm Winning Margins.

“We’ll need a vice president candidate with policy chops and with a style of communication that reaches voters in rural and small towns, which are increasingly Black and brown. These are the voters the VP will need to have a winning coalition.”

Here's a rundown on the contenders:

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro ‘would translate well’ in other swing states

Alison Dagnes, a professor of political science at Shippensburg University, said she understands why Shapiro is being talked about for vice president: He's shrewd, tech-savvy and a proven winner in the battleground state with the most Electoral College votes at stake.

"His social media game is on point," Dagnes told the USA TODAY Network. "I have gotten Josh Shapiro TikToks and Instagram Reels and Stories from students, former students who don't even live in Pennsylvania anymore."

Prolific campaigning and fundraising has fueled two decades of sustained election success for Shapiro.

His resume in this pivotal swing state includes terms as a county commissioner, state legislator and attorney general. He won his gubernatorial race by 12 points, and his approval rating as governor — according to polling from the Commonwealth Foundation, a libertarian-leaning policy group — has been as high as 60% and has never fallen below the mid-50s.

Shapiro's presence at the top of the party's ticket could also benefit down-ballot Democrats in Pennsylvania.

In the 2022 midterms, when he was elected governor, Democrats picked up a U.S. Senate seat and retook control of the state House of Representatives for the first time in more than a decade.

Shapiro could bolster the ticket with his disciplined campaigning and ability to stay on message, said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.

“That’s why he’s been such a rising star to Pennsylvania politics for two decades,” he said. “I think he would translate well (in all the swing) states.”

He’s not, however, without his critics.

To those on the left of the Democratic Party, Shapiro’s history of centrist messaging may be less than inspiring.

“Any prospective VP pick, including Gov. Shapiro, must champion popular progressive policies like canceling medical debt, raising the minimum wage, and capping rent increases at the federal level," said Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of the progressive group Our Revolution. "President Biden recently embraced these popular polices, and base voters will expect that they remain front and center in the Party platform.”

And although Dagnes sees an eventual White House run in Shapiro's future, she's not as convinced he’d be the ideal choice for Harris.

She noted that his Jewish heritage and vocal support for Israel could be problematic in parts of the country where acts of antisemitism are rising. The Biden-Harris ticket has also faced pushback from Arab and Muslim American populations who oppose Israel’s actions in Gaza.

NBC News reported Monday that Shapiro left the door open to running as Harris’ vice president if it were offered to him.

"She will make that decision when she is ready," he told reporters in Pittsburgh. "And I have all the confidence in the world that she will make that decision along with many others in the best interest of the American people."

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper could also boost critical governor’s race as VP pick

North Carolina's Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, has served two terms while Republicans maintain a supermajority in the state Legislature.

He clinched a win over his Republican rival in 2016 by less than a percentage point and increased his margin to about 4.5 percentage points in 2020 – both years when Republican Donald Trump won North Carolina’s presidential race.

This year, Democrats have been eyeing North Carolina as a possible battleground state to help expand their electoral map in 2024.

Cooper’s electoral success in this purple state could give Democrats a regional advantage, said Michael Bitzer, political scientist at North Carolina's Catawba College.

“This is a different North Carolina from 20 years ago, and certainly this dynamic of working on the margins of victory, you know, you want as strong a candidate as you can possibly get,” Bitzer said. “And Cooper would present that, at least here in North Carolina.”

Not only could Cooper help Harris, but he could also set the tone for high-stakes down-ballot races in the state.

“I've been a little skeptical of North Carolina as a reach state, but Cooper could put that back in play," said Taylor, the Cook Political Report analyst. "And, you know, there's a very important governor's race there to succeed him too.”

Cooper has endorsed Democrat Josh Stein to succeed him in the race against firebrand Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson. It’s one of the most high-profile governor’s races in the country this year, and any high-profile help at the top of the ticket could boost Stein’s chances.

Nadine Gibson, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina Wilmington, said Cooper could help mobilize voters and "motivate more people to vote than the Biden-Harris ticket.”

"A lot of winning elections is about not only persuading swing voters, but also about mobilizing voters," Gibson said. "There is an argument that there's a lot of untapped Democrats in North Carolina."

On Monday, Cooper appeared on MSNBC's Morning Joe show where he declined to comment on VP speculation and instead shifted the focus back to Harris, who he has endorsed.

"I appreciate people talking about me, but I think the focus right now needs to be on her this week,” he said. “And she needs to concentrate on making sure that she secures this nomination and gets the campaign ready to go.”

‘It’s really a broader message that matters’ with Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear

Adding Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear to the ticket is unlikely to swing the red state in favor of Democrats, said University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss.

Trump swept to victory there in 2020 with about two-thirds of the vote, defeating Biden 62% to 31%.

But Beshear could help Democrats pick up voters in other states with demographics similar to Kentucky’s, he said.

“Adding a Kentucky governor (to the ticket) ought to help in Ohio, in parts of Pennsylvania,” Voss said. “It’s really a broader message that matters, not a favorite son phenomenon.”

Mike Ward, a longtime Democratic activist, thinks Beshear’s ability to relate to rural Americans could be an asset well beyond Kentucky.

“They feel left out and neglected, and Andy (Beshear) has shown again and again and again that he did not leave them out in Kentucky, that he showed them every ounce of respect and attention that he showed to the areas of the state where he got a lot higher percent of the vote,” Ward said.

Others disagree.

More: Why Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is — and isn't — the best candidate for vice president

In 2019, Beshear won the governorship by the narrowest of margins — less than half a percentage point, or just over 5,000 votes.

And although he won by a wider margin in 2023, most of his votes came from the state’s population centers, said Danny Briscoe, a longtime Democratic consultant in Kentucky.

“He carried Lexington, he carried Louisville, he carried Owensboro, he carried Ashland, he carried Bowling Green, he carried Richmond, he carried Frankfort,” but Beshear lost in 91 of Kentucky's 120 counties in his 2023 race for governor, Briscoe said. That throws into question his success with the rural vote.

The Kentucky House and Senate are both held by Republican supermajorities, and it’s unlikely that a Beshear vice presidential pick would have much impact on those down-ballot races, University of Kentucky political scientist Voss said.

“One could argue he'd attract more than the usual enthusiasm, but I doubt it, given that he couldn't extend coattails even to the Democratic candidates who shared a ballot with him last year,” Voss said.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom may be out of the veepstakes but could still be influential

While it remains unclear whether Whitmer is under consideration to be Harris’ running mate, she seemed to express disinterest in the role.

While she avoided questions from the media at public events Monday, she responded to one reporter on her way to the car who asked whether she’s prepared to take the vice presidency if offered.

“No, I’m not planning to go anywhere,” Whitmer said.

That might come as a disappointment for Democratic candidates in Michigan staring down competitive races this fall.

The state has an open U.S. Senate seat following the retirement of Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, which could decide party control of the chamber. The state also has several competitive congressional campaigns, and Democrats’ narrow majority in the Michigan House of Representatives is also on the line.

Bernie Porn, the pollster for EPIC-MRA in Lansing, said Whitmer joining Harris’ campaign as her running mate could provide a boost for Democrats.

“I think it would be a benefit down ballot in Michigan if that were to happen,” he said.

However, it’s remains uncertain whether voters might respond positively to having two women on the ticket.

“Although I would love to test it out,” Porn said.

In California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom appears to have similarly ended any speculation that he would seek the Democratic presidential nomination this week when he endorsed Harris for president.

But he hasn’t entirely quieted rumblings that he is a contender for Harris’ 2024 running mate.

But unlike many others named as possible vice presidential picks, Newsom comes with a handful of legal hurdles and thorny strategic obstacles that election experts and Democratic strategists say makes his selection unlikely – if not impossible.

National Democratic strategist Bob Shrum points to the 12th Amendment, which says the candidates for president and vice president cannot be from the same state.

“Gavin Newsom would have to move out of state and resign as governor,” Shrum said. “Because Harris is never going to give up her California residency.”

It’s just as unlikely Newsom would relinquish his role as governor or his California residency. He is a fourth-generation San Franciscan, his late father a state appeals court judge who made his millions in wineries, restaurants and hotels stretching across the state.

Shrum, director of the University of California’s Center on the Political Future, said he still expects Newsom to play a significant role in the 2024 election.

“I think he'll continue to be a very effective surrogate and campaign hard,” he said. “He is telegenic, he is fluent, he is eloquent, so I think he can make a real contribution for Harris.”

Other Democratic governors who might have future White House ambitions, like Wes Moore in Maryland and J.B. Pritzker in Illinois, have also endorsed Harris.

Moore has ruled out running as a vice president, telling reporters on Monday that he spoke with Biden and Harris on Sunday but has “no interest” in the position of vice president.

“I have no interest and I’ve expressed that,” he said, “I love my job.”

Asheville Citizen Times reporter Joel Burgess and The Herald-Mail reporter Dwight A. Weingarten contributed to this article.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Democrats gauge which swing state governors pack biggest VP punch