Derek Schmidt reaps advantages of four statewide GOP campaigns to lead Kansas congressional race

Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University, says former Attorney General Derek Schmidt had taken control of the Republican primary in the 2nd congressional district and that large numbers of potential voters remain disappointed with the presidential options of Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden. (Sherman Smith/Kansas Reflector)

TOPEKA — Name recognition developed during more than 20 years in elective office and participation in four statewide campaigns placed former Attorney General Derek Schmidt as the clear frontrunner in the Republican Party’s primary to replace departing U.S. Rep. Jake LaTurner, a Kansas political analyst says.

In the only open Kansas congressional race of 2024, Schmidt took the lead among five GOP primary candidates in the eastern Kansas district. The 2nd District has been represented by a Republican for 28 of the past 30 years. The Democratic Party primary features two candidates, including former U.S. Rep. Nancy Boyda of Baldwin City. She was the upstart who defeated incumbent 2nd District U.S. Rep. Jim Ryun in 2006, but was ousted herself two years later.

Bob Beatty, professor of political science at Washburn University in Topeka, said public polling showed Schmidt had backing of 44% the survey’s participants. In that snapshot, Topeka attorney Jeff Kahrs had 4% and Delevan feedlot operator Shawn Tiffany held 3% with the rest undecided.

“Obviously, that’s a massive lead,” Beatty said on the Kansas Reflector podcast. “I think it’s safe to call Derek Schmidt the establishment candidate. That doesn’t mean he’s from the left or the right. It just means that he’s been in politics a long time. He’s very well known.”

Schmidt, who calls Independence his hometown, was endorsed by former President Donald Trump during the 2022 campaign for Kansas governor. He lost the race to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly by 21,000 votes out of 1 million cast, but carried 55% to 66% of the statewide vote in his three successful campaigns for Kansas attorney general.

In an interview Friday, Beatty said millions of dollars spent defining Schmidt two years ago in the contest for governor was paying dividends now. In a sense, Beatty said, Schmidt’s campaign could draft upon conservative messaging from previous campaigns.

LaTurner announced his decision not to seek reelection in April, which left relatively unknown candidates less time to leave a mark on potential voters. He hasn’t endorsed a primary candidate in the House race.

The Trump agenda

Neither Kahrs nor Tiffany had previously campaigned for major public office in Kansas, which meant they would struggle to capture the attention of voters. Schmidt, Tiffany and Kahrs have sought to highlight their affinity for Trump’s vision of government, Beatty said. Border security, inflation, federal debt, energy regulation, abortion and criticism of President Joe Biden were central elements of their congressional campaigns.

“The past two years of the Biden administration have made it more clear than ever that career politicians don’t have the answers to the problems facing America,” Tiffany said.

Kahrs’ campaign ad declared he was a “proven conservative” who was selected by the Trump administration to advance the America First agenda as a Midwest administrator in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Kahrs later worked as a senior adviser to LaTurner, who was elected to Congress in 2020.

“All three of the main candidates on the Republican side, they are campaigning as if there’s no Democrats in the district at all,” Beatty said. “One candidate, Sean Tiffany, doesn’t even like moderate Republicans.”

Chad Young of Lawrence and Michael Ogle of Topeka have been justifiably viewed as long-shot candidates in the Republican primary, Beatty said.

In the Democratic primary, Boyda is up against Matt Kleinmann, a community health organizer in Wyandotte County who played college basketball at University of Kansas. Beatty said in a low-turnout Democratic primary both candidates had a chance to win.

Boyda offered a unifying message and pledged to work among Republicans and Democrats to get the job done in Washington.

“Boyda has already made some statements that have angered a few, you know, more traditional Democrats. I’m seeing her as a bit of a disrupter in this primary, even though she is a former congresswoman,” Beatty said.

Beatty said Kleinmann was campaigning on economic and health care issues relevant to the working class.

“We will create opportunities, ensure everyone has the resources they need and safeguard the communities and freedoms that make America great,” Kleinmann said.

The presidential race

Beatty, who was interviewed for the podcast before Saturday’s wounding of Trump in Pennsylvania, said he was stunned by Biden’s weak performance in the June debate with Trump.

“I can’t underscore how disastrous that debate was, and how awful it was. I’ve attended 12 presidential debates. Never seen anything that bad,” Beatty said.

He said the debate didn’t alter an underlying desire among a portion of U.S. voters for the Republican and Democratic parties to place nominees other than Trump and Biden on November ballots. Trump’s first term and more recent legal problems turned off voters, he said, while questions about Biden’s age troubled voters.

Polling for two years demonstrated a significant percentage of the electorate was disappointed with the major party offerings, he said.

“Trump will say, ‘Oh, yes, I got convicted.’ Or, ‘Yes, I lost that case. But I was railroaded. I’m innocent.’ You know, even in the debate, he said, I didn’t have sex with the porn star. So, I guess his supporters can choose to believe him,” Beatty said. “Here’s the difference. It’s not believable when (Biden) says, ‘Oh, I’m just as good as I was four years ago.’ So, you’re insulting the voters by denying that you’ve lost a step.”

If Biden were to decline the presidential nomination for a second term, Beatty said the likely Democratic nominee would be Vice President Kamala Harris. Beatty said Harris, 59, would have an opportunity to invigorate Democrats and independents eager for a younger candidate. She would be able to select a running mate from a swing state such as Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, he said.

“Trump is winning all of those swing states at the moment,” Beatty said.

Beatty said he would have recommended Trump add U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, R-South Carolina, to the 2024 ticket. The finalists included U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. On Monday, Trump selected Vance to be his running mate.

The post Derek Schmidt reaps advantages of four statewide GOP campaigns to lead Kansas congressional race appeared first on Kansas Reflector.