How did we get purple? What to know about Wisconsin politics ahead of the RNC.
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When the Republican National Convention comes to Milwaukee in mid-July, it'll be bringing the party's message and nominee to one of the swingiest of swing states, where a few thousand voters can determine a presidential election.
In recent history, the GOP brought its convention to both purple states and more solidly Republican ones. In 2020, the RNC was planned for North Carolina, a state that former President Donald Trump ultimately won by just over a percentage point. In 2016, it was held in Ohio, where Trump had a much higher margin of eight points that year.
Wisconsin is in the first, purple category. There are many factors that make Wisconsin neither solidly red nor solidly blue. But one thing is sure: It's not lost on the Republican Party that Wisconsin is a key state in 2024, and bringing the convention here puts the party directly in front of critical voters.
If you're just tuning into the landscape of Wisconsin politics ahead of the RNC, here's a primer about the state's political geography, presidential voting history and party control of state government:
Is Wisconsin a red or blue state?
The best way to describe Wisconsin is that it's a purple state. National political commentators will also refer to Wisconsin as a swing state or battleground state, because it's one of the truly competitive states that decide who wins the presidential election.
Other swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Who did Wisconsin vote for in the last presidential elections?
It's a common refrain on both sides of the aisle that if a presidential candidate wins Wisconsin, they win it all. While there are some exceptions, it's largely true.
In 2020, Wisconsin voted for President Joe Biden, who won the presidency. Biden took 49.6% of the vote, compared to Trump's 48.9%. That's a difference of less than 21,000 votes.
In 2016, Wisconsin voted for Trump — also choosing the candidate who won the race. Trump took 47.2% of the vote, compared to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 46.5%. That's about a 23,000-vote difference.
Let's look a little further back in history. In both 2008 and 2012, Wisconsin voted for President Barack Obama, a Democrat.
The last time Wisconsin didn't vote for the winning candidate was in 2004. The state voted for Democratic nominee John Kerry by less than a percentage point. The same was true in 2000 — Wisconsin voted for Democratic nominee Al Gore by a very slim margin.
Is Milwaukee a Democratic or Republican city?
Milwaukee — the most populous city in Wisconsin — is hosting the RNC. And there's no doubt that the city is blue.
In 2020, Biden got nearly 70% of the vote in Milwaukee County. In 2016, Clinton got about 66%.
Still, there are signs that Black voters in Milwaukee have waning enthusiasm for a 2020 rematch. Since 2004, turnout among Black voters in Milwaukee has significantly lagged white voter turnout during presidential contests, with the exception of 2012.
Milwaukee has both a Democratic mayor, Cavalier Johnson, and county executive, David Crowley. Both have supported bringing the RNC to Milwaukee, citing the expected economic impact and international spotlight on the city.
More: How big policy wins put Cavalier Johnson and David Crowley in the political driver's seat
What parts of Wisconsin vote Republican and what parts vote Democratic?
It's easy to look at a map of Wisconsin's election results and recognize that the state's largest cities are hubs of Democratic votes, while more rural areas turn out for Republicans.
But there's been some recent shifts in voting trends that are worth noting.
Take the WOW (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington) counties that surround Milwaukee, often seen as a shorthand for understanding the views of suburban voters. Once a Republican stronghold, the counties have been moving in a bluer direction.
More: Gilbert: What 30 years of voting history tells us about Wisconsin's shifting suburban vote
There's also the booming population of Dane County, where Madison is located. More voters moving into an already heavily Democratic area could make it even harder for Republicans to match those high margins elsewhere in the state.
More: NBC to look at fast-growing Dane County as predictor of 2024 presidential election
Meanwhile, rural Wisconsin has been trending redder. Taking all of Wisconsin's towns together, Trump carried them by 25 points in both his presidential elections. In 2012, Republicans won the towns by 12 points, according to a Journal Sentinel analysis.
Does Wisconsin have a Democratic or Republican governor?
Wisconsin has a Democratic governor — Tony Evers — who was first elected in 2018 and reelected in 2022. In 2022, he defeated Republican candidate Tim Michels by about 51% to 48%. Evers, a former state schools superintendent, has focused on issues like education, child care and broadband access.
Before Evers, Republican Gov. Scott Walker held office for eight years and made profound changes in Wisconsin, like signing Act 10, which limited collective bargaining for most public employees, and expanding private school vouchers. Walker is a delegate to the RNC and recently delivered remarks at Trump's rally in Racine.
More: We know Trump will be the RNC nominee, but here's why conventions are still important
Does Wisconsin have a Republican or Democratic Legislature?
This is another area where Wisconsin is split. While the state has a Democratic governor, Republicans have held power of the state Legislature for over a decade. In 2023, Republicans held 64 of the 99 Assembly seats, and 21 of the 33 seats in the Senate.
But that could change in 2024. Lawmakers are running in new districts that replaced maps that were considered some of the most gerrymandered in the nation. If Democrats do take a majority, they're more likely to do so in the Assembly first, because not all Senate seats have an election this year.
More: A game-changing moment for Wisconsin Democrats. New maps put legislative majorities within reach
If they took control of the Legislature, Democrats would likely try to pass policies that Republicans have rejected, such as legalizing marijuana and increasing the state's minimum wage.
Who represents Wisconsin in Congress?
In the U.S. Senate, Wisconsin is represented by one Republican, Ron Johnson, and one Democrat, Tammy Baldwin. Baldwin is up for reelection this year in a nationally watched race against Republican challenger Eric Hovde.
Wisconsin is one of only a few states with a senator from each party. And Johnson's and Baldwin's voting records are the most different among senators from the same state over the past two decades.
In the U.S. House, two Democrats represent Wisconsin: Rep. Mark Pocan from the Madison area and Rep. Gwen Moore from Milwaukee.
Two of the more competitive districts are currently represented by Republicans — the western 3rd District held by Rep. Derrick Van Orden and the southeastern 1st District held by Rep. Bryan Steil.
Other Republican members are Rep. Tom Tiffany from the northern 7th District, Rep. Glenn Grothman from the central 6th District and Rep. Scott Fitzgerald in the 5th District west of Milwaukee. Several Republicans are running in a primary to replace Rep. Mike Gallagher in the northeastern 8th District.
More: Wisconsin has new legislative maps, but won't have new congressional ones. Here's why.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Ahead of RNC, a look at Wisconsin politics, history as purple state
