What does Biden’s exit mean for Texas Senate race between Ted Cruz & Colin Allred?

President Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race raises more than just questions about who will succeed him on the Democratic ticket. It also prompts questions about what his absence means for down-ballot races, including the Senate race in Texas between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred.

Republicans and Democrats think Biden’s departure befefits down-ballot candidates. But with months before Election Day and the top of the Democratic ticket not confirmed, it’s unclear exactly how Biden leaving the race will affect the Senate race.

“We have to kind of wait to see this thing sort out for a few days,” said Jim Riddlesperger, a TCU political science professor. “There’s a potential, obviously, that having a new face in the election will add a level of energy and excitement that was notably lacking this year.”

Biden ended his reelection bid against former President Donald Trump on Sunday after weeks of calls from within his party for him to withdraw. Numerous House Democrats said Biden needed to step aside following a June 27 debate performance that raised questions about his age and fitness for office.

Biden has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president and urged Democrats to unite behind her. Since his announcement, Delegates have largely united behind Harris as their presidential pick, including the Texas delegation, which voted overwhelmingly to back Harris as the nominee on Monday.

The Democratic nominee will be selected by delegates before or during Democrats’ national convention that begins Aug. 19, according to The Washington Post. Texas has 273 delegates.

Allred, of Dallas, is supporting Harris for president. Cruz has endorsed former President Donald Trump.

Will Harris energize Democrats?

Experts say Biden’s exit could bode well for Allred and other down-ballot Democrats.

Signs seem to point to a smooth transition to Harris as the nominee, which SMU political science professor Cal Jillson predicted will energize Democrats and help Allred. On the other hand, a more extended fight for the nomination could be off-putting for potential voters, he said in a Sunday interview.

“If it’s the first of those two, then I think there will be a rally effect to the Democrats,” Jillson said. “A relief rally that Biden has stepped back, the Democrats have a younger, more vibrant nominee. And I think that Democrats, maybe independents and even some alienated Republicans might rally to that.”

Shay Wyrick Cathey, vice chair of the Texas Democratic Party, anticipates Harris will indeed be the nominee. Democrats are encouraged that there will not be a gap in leadership and that the administration’s accomplishments can still be used as a campaign to help down-ballot races, she said. Cathey said she discussed the Senate race with the vice president during a recent trip to Dallas, telling Harris she needed to return to the state to help Allred win.

“Her face lit up and she said, ‘Absolutely — we think this is a viable race, and I want to do what I can,” Cathey said.

Allred has been polling ahead of Biden in several key dimensions, Rottinghaus noted. A poll from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University taken between June 20 and July 1 put Allred 3 percentage points behind Cruz among likely voters. Biden was nine points behind Trump.

“Without the albatross of President Biden’s candidacy around his neck, Allred’s got a little more flexibility,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor.

The poll found that Biden and Harris have similar favorability among likely Texas voters. Fifty-five percent of likely Texas voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden and 56% have an unfavorable opinion of Harris, according to the poll. Forty-nine percent had a favorable opinion of Cruz and 46% had a favorable opinion of Allred.

Reached with an interview request, Allred’s campaign directed the Star-Telegram to the congressman’s Sunday statement on Biden’s exit from the presidential race.

Allred has distanced himself from Biden on the border, denouncing the president’s immigration policies in a January resolution. Immigration has been a top issue in the U.S. Senate race.

Cathey points out that Allred has said he stood up to Biden on the border in campaign ads.

“So now we have a nominee that has been our immigration czar, who has kind of worked in line with President Biden, but those are his decisions,” Cathey said. “And so now, he gets to fully support Vice President Harris to see what she will do for the border.”

Harris is strongly associated with the Biden administration as vice president and will have to play to her strengths while avoiding Biden’s weaknesses, if the nominee, Rottinghaus said. That’s a challenge for Harris given their close link, but for Allred, it offers a “fresh look at a new dynamic,” he said.

“She brings a different kind of energy, and a different kind of platform and a different kind of persona to the race,” Rottinghaus said. “She is a more dynamic figure than Joe Biden and she is able to activate constituencies that Biden in the past hasn’t excited.”

What does Biden’s exit mean for Ted Cruz?

Biden’s exit from the race “only helps Republicans,” said James Wesolek, the Republican Party of Texas’ spokesperson, in a Monday statement. By withdrawing and “overriding the will of Democrat primary voters,” Biden is creating chaos among Democrats, he said.

“Vice President Kamala Harris, the so-called border czar who has rarely visited the border, is just as unfit to serve America as the absent-minded nominee she seeks to replace,” Wesolek said. “Republicans remain united behind Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, and will enthusiastically return them both to Washington D.C. this November.”

But Rottinghaus doesn’t see Biden’s exit making much of a difference for Republicans. Running against Harris will be a bit harder than running against Biden, he said.

Cruz will have to shift his messaging from focusing on Biden to focusing on Harris, Rottinghaus said, which is what the senator did in a Monday news conference.

Cruz hammered both Harris and Allred on their immigration policy and cast Allred as a “radical left wing Democrat,” not a moderate.

In 2021, Biden directed Harris to study the root causes of migration from Central America. She was not named “border czar” or charged with overseeing enforcement at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Texas Republicans have quickly capitalized on her border role, including Cruz in a Monday news conference. The remarks were shared with the Star-Telegram in response to an interview request.

“The Democrat Party is circling the wagons around Joe Biden’s border czar as the next nominee,” Cruz said. “If Kamala Harris is the nominee, understand what that means. That means that every elected Democrat in the House and Senate, their agenda is continuing the Biden-Harris open borders. The border czar will keep this same invasion going. That’s Collin Allred’s agenda.”