Duke Buckner says he’ll unseat Rep. Jim Clyburn, SC’s top Democrat. Does he have a chance? | Opinion

Every two years like clockwork since 1992, South Carolinians have sent Democrat Jim Clyburn to Congress. His worst showing came two years ago when he got a massive 62% of the vote against Republican Duke Buckner. The lone Democrat in a deeply red state’s congressional delegation, Clyburn didn’t even see a primary challenge this year.

Standing in the way of a 17th term is a familiar foe, Buckner, who easily won Tuesday’s GOP primary and says he has a path to victory in the Nov. 5 election — even if most others don’t see it, even if The State Editorial Board gives him “no chance” against Clyburn.

Wednesday seemed like a good time to check in with Clyburn and Buckner about their rematch. Clyburn’s campaign took my call but didn’t respond to a question about Buckner’s confidence by my deadline the next day. Buckner was all too happy to revisit why our editorial board endorsed him in the GOP primary while giving him no chance against Clyburn in the general election.

This is also a good time for us to reiterate that we will make new endorsements in the fall — and for us to show how much we analyze all these races and listen to feedback from readers and the subjects of our writing.

Buckner was up early on Saturday, May 25, when I emailed all the congressional candidates The State Editorial Board’s endorsements in the primary. By 9 a.m., he had replied with a lengthy email telling me there actually was a chance he’d beat Clyburn. A few days later, the two of us were having a long phone conversation about his prospects.

“Would you and your editorial staff at the paper consider changing your conclusion regarding my chances of winning?” he politely asked. I listened, then I politely told him no, and explained why. By the end of our talk, I had offered to buy him a beer if he won. But I told him what I thought: He just can’t unseat Clyburn given Clyburn’s achievements, connections, fundraising and overall support in a voting district drawn to his advantage.

Wednesday I called Buckner to discuss all this again, envisioning Jim Carrey saying, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?” He brought up another movie: “Rocky II.”

Here’s how Buckner sees his path to victory this year, and why I don’t.

Buckner says everyone is concerned about the economy, and younger voters may not be as connected to Clyburn as their elders are. He mentions polling that could help him, showing that President Joe Biden’s net approval rating among Black voters plummeted last year and that younger Black voters are more Republican than older Black voters. He notes that Sen. Mia McLeod, the first Black woman to run for governor in South Carolina, left the state’s Democratic party in 2023, upset with it. And he argues money isn’t everything because Jaime Harrison raised more than Lindsey Graham but lost the 2020 U.S. Senate race in South Carolina. (Harrison did raise $130 million, but Graham raised $108 million — as Buckner saw firsthand, losing to Graham in that year’s GOP primary while raising just $26,000.)

In 2022, Buckner got 38% of the vote while amassing a fraction of Clyburn’s fundraising. Buckner spent $187,000; Clyburn, $3.2 million. Buckner says this is a good omen for his new campaign. But it’s not. Money gets a message out. And Clyburn has a lot more of it. So far this election cycle, he’s raised $1.4 million to Buckner’s $92,000. Edge: Clyburn.

Buckner, who like Clyburn is a Black South Carolina native, says African Americans are turning away from the Democratic party and Biden, whom Clyburn famously helped elect. But the Black community, like any community, is not monolithic. People will pick between Biden and former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5, but a Pew Research Center poll in April actually found that “Black voters are more confident in Biden than Trump when it comes to having the qualities needed to serve another term” and Pew also shared that 4 in 5 Black voters have allied with Democrats for 30 years. Edge: Clyburn.

Buckner also says two of three third-party candidates on the November ballot — the United Citizens Party’s Gregg Marcel Dixon and the Alliance Party’s Joseph Oddo — may take votes from Clyburn but only one — Libertarian Michael Simpson — might take votes away from Buckner. OK, but Dixon ran against Clyburn in 2022 and finished in third place, with less than 5% of the vote. And Oddo did even worse in the 2022 general election against U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace, managing a paltry 1% of the vote. Buckner’s math is fuzzy. Edge: Clyburn.

Lastly, Buckner says he won 5 of 14 counties in 2022 — Calhoun, Clarendon, Colleton, Dorchester and Jasper — and that Dorchester County has experienced huge growth since then so he expects his numbers to be even higher in that county. Left unsaid was the fact that the rest of the district includes Democratic strongholds in Charleston and Richland counties, where more than half the voters reside. Edge: Clyburn.

Buckner is smart and savvy. He’s a lawyer who has been a teacher, a journalist and a Walterboro City Council member. I look forward to hearing more from him and from Clyburn, a legend of South Carolina politics even if his campaign staff didn’t respond for this column. And I will buy Buckner that beer if I’m wrong.

But, as is too often the case with South Carolina’s gerrymandered voting districts, low-turnout primary elections, and the advantage of incumbency, this race is over before it really starts.