What final metrics reveal about Tagovailoa: Where he’s great and where more is needed

Second in a 4-part series on Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa

A six-pack of Tagovailoa notes and metrics heading into the offseason:

▪ The biggest concerns, in an otherwise strong season, remain his performance when:

A). He faces stout defenses.

B). Late in close games.

C). When a heavy pass rush is in his face.

For his career, when trailing in a one-possession game with under five minutes remaining, Tagovailoa is 53 of 89 (59.6 percent) for 601 yards (6.8 yards per attempt) with six touchdowns, four interceptions and a passer rating of 83.6.

This season, he was 14 for 25 for 134 yards, with one TD and one INT, in those situations. That’s a poor 64.4 passer rating. And Miami was 2-3 in those games involving the NFL’s equivalent of “clutch time” in the NBA.

This season, Tagovailoa led the Dolphins to a late-game victory against Dallas (won on a field goal with no time remaining) and a fourth-quarter comeback win against the Chargers, capped by a four-yard TD pass to Tyreek Hill to give Miami a 36-34 lead with 1:45 left. Those were excellent performances and shouldn’t be glossed over.

On the flip side…

He threw a red zone interception with 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter in Philadelphia, with the Dolphins trailing by a touchdown.

He couldn’t hit Cedrick Wilson Jr., who was streaking open, with his team down a touchdown and two minutes left against Kansas City in Germany (there was clear miscommunication on that play), then couldn’t corral a slightly errant snap on fourth down.

Down 28-27 against Tennessee and 1:45 left, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins mustered only 19 yards on six plays, with Tagovailoa taking a sack on fourth down.

He threw an interception with just over a minute left and his team down by a touchdown in the regular-season finale against Buffalo.

▪ And there’s this: In the fourth quarter this season, Tagovailoa’s 75.9 passer rating was 18th among starters who played in at least 10 games; San Francisco’s Brock Purdy was at 123.8 and Buffalo’s Josh Allen was at 104.0.

It’s important to note that Kansas City All Pro Patrick Mahomes was at 71.7 in the fourth quarter this season, but he obviously has proven his greatness. Among qualifying quarterbacks, Mahomes was the only other 10 caliber QB who finished below Tagovailoa in fourth quarter passer rating.

▪ Tagovailoa played seven games against teams that had top 10 scoring defenses.

He was good against No. 4 Dallas (24 for 37 for 293 yards, a touchdown and interception, 98.1 rating) and very good against No. 9 Las Vegas (28 for 39 for 325 yards, 2 TDs, 1 pick and a 103 rating).

He was subpar in the second Buffalo game (62.7 rating; 1 TD, 2 picks) and the first KC game (21 for 34 for 193 yards; 87.0 rating) and the Baltimore game (22-for-38, 237 yards, 2 TDs, 2 picks; 71.9 rating) and the Chiefs playoff game (20-for-39, 199 yards, 1 TD, 1 interception; 63.9 passer rating).

He was OK in the first Bills game (22 for 34 for 282, 1 TD, 1 pick and a 92.8 rating). But that was a Buffalo blowout.

▪ When facing quarterback pressure, Tagovailoa had a dismal 57.5 passer rating; only Zach Wilson, Bryce Young and Mac Jones were worse among qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus.

Tagovailoa completed only 46 of 113 passes when pressured (40.7 percent) with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

The question is whether Tagovailoa’s accuracy can ultimately overcome his struggles making something out of nothing, a skill that Mahomes and Allen and Lamar Jackson possess because of their elusiveness and running ability.

▪ On the flip side, Tagovailoa was exceptional with a clean pocket: His 112.5 passer rating when he was well protected was third best in the league, behind only Purdy (125.4) and Detroit’s Jared Goff (114.5).

He completed an elite 76.6 percent of his passes when kept clean, and his 27 TD passes with a clean pocket tied Prescott for most in the league.

His 4057 yards with a clean pocket were 723 more than any other quarterback threw, which is a testament to Tagovailoa’s quick release and very good pass protection.

But his 12 interceptions when kept clean also led the league.

▪ Tagovailoa remained well above average on deep ball accuracy, or specifically, passes that traveled at least 20 air yards.

Among quarterbacks that threw at least 40 such passes, Tagovailoa completed the fourth-highest percentage of them (50.8), behind only Purdy (63.8), Houston’s CJ Stroud (56.1) and the Rams’ Matt Stafford (51.9). That’s according to PFF.

Tagovailoa’s 32 completions on passes that traveled 20 or more air yards tied with Stroud for third, behind only Dallas’ Dak Prescott (35) and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence (34).

His 1149 yards on such passes led the league. His 11 TDs on such passes tied with the Saints’ Derek Carr and Prescott for second most in the league, behind Purdy and Lawrence (11 each).

Tagovailoa’s seven interceptions on such plays were third most, behind Allen’s nine and Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts’ eight.

Here’s part 1 of the series on the pros and cons of a contract extension for Tagovailoa.