When is the first day of fall? What the Old Farmer's Almanac says about Tennessee outlook

We're still in the dog days of summer, but it doesn't mean we can't dream of fall weather.

Between the heat and now the rain, dreams of crisp fall days sipping a fun autumn drink might be circling, but there are still a couple of months before the first official day of fall and there are no guarantees that it will cool down significantly by then. The autumnal equinox— or the September equinox or the fall equinox — at the end of September will bring a change in season as days grow shorter and the bountiful summer harvest gives way to heartier plants that survive in cooler weather.

Here's when the first day of fall is and what Tennesseans can expect weather wise.

When is the first day of fall?

The official first day of fall is Sunday, Sept. 22, at 7:44 a.m. CT/ 8:44 a.m. ET, also known as the autumnal equinox.

The equinox is known as the astronomical start of the season, but there is another method used to measure the change in seasons.

The meteorological start to fall is based on the annual temperature cycle and the 12-month calendar. With this definition, each season begins on the first of a particular month and lasts for three months. This means summer will end on Aug. 31 and fall will start on Sept. 1, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac.

What is the autumnal equinox?

According to The Old Farmer's Almanac, an equinox is when the sun crosses the “celestial equator," which is an imaginary extension of Earth’s equator line into space. The equinox occurs when the sun’s center passes through it.

Earth experiences two different equinoxes each year.

In the northern hemisphere, when the sun crosses the equator going north to south, it marks the autumnal equinox. The vernal equinox is when it crosses from south to north.

What does equinox mean?

The word equinox is derived from Latin. Aequus (equal) and nox (night) directly describes the occurrence seen twice a year during the start of fall and spring.

When will it get cooler in Tennessee?

Tennessee is looking at near-average temperatures for fall this year, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac. As for what the forecast looks like, Accuweather's month-long forecast for September continues to show highs in the high 80s heading into the 90s, but the temperatures will start to drop at night and toward the end of the month in Middle and West Tennessee.

Of course, the mountains in East Tennessee will start to cool off a bit sooner than the rest of the state.

East Tennessee will sit closer to the mid-80s with high 70s for much of September, according to predictions from Accuweather.

Most of the state will start feeling a bit more fall-ish, once October starts and temperatures begin to dip down in the mid-60s during the day and nights start dipping to the mid-40s.

How much rain will Tennessee see this fall?

Tennessee will see more rain than usual this fall. The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts an above average precipitation this fall and so does Accuweather.

September's weather prediction by Accuweather doesn't show much anticipated rainfalls during the month in Tennessee, but as we head into October the state is expected to see an uptick in precipitation.

As always, this look-ahead forecast can change as weather events happen.

How does the Old Farmer's Almanac make predictions?

According to the Old Farmer's Almanac website, predictions are made by comparing solar activity with weather patterns. It reports using multiple academic disciplines for its predictions, including solar science, climatology and meteorology.

The weather forecast methodology is the modern version of a formula created by the Almanac's founder, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792, according to the website.

How accurate is the Old Farmer's Almanac's?

The Old Farmer's Almanac claims an 80% accuracy rate on its predictions.

The Cape Cod Times contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Old Farmer's Almanac 2024 Fall weather prediction for Tennessee