Fischer, Trump lead statewide in Fischer’s new Nebraska poll

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LINCOLN — U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer and former President Donald Trump hold sizable statewide leads this summer, according to a Fischer campaign poll shared this week with the Examiner. 

Fischer held a 26-point edge in the poll of 698 likely Nebraska voters by Torchlight Strategies, a conservative pollster. The survey of landline and cell phone users, taken July 8-11, listed a 3.7% margin of error.

Half of respondents — 50% — indicated support for Fischer. Nearly a quarter — 24% — preferred nonpartisan union leader Dan Osborn. About 17% of those surveyed were undecided.

Osborn’s campaign is gathering signatures to appear on the fall ballot. It plans to turn in the signatures Aug. 19, a spokesman said last week. His campaign had no immediate comment on the poll.

Osborn outraised Fischer in the second quarter, $1.04 million to Fischer’s $679,000. But she holds the cash advantage, with $3 million in cash on hand compared to his $650,000. 

A third candidate in the race, Kerry Eddy of the Legal Marijuana NOW Party, raised far less, $17,765, and had $7,800 in cash on hand. The poll showed Eddy drawing about 9% support.

No Democrat in the race

No Democrat is running in the race after Osborn wooed the Nebraska Democratic Party before the primary and then declined to seek the party’s  endorsement the day after the primary.

The poll indicates Democrats have less decisively flocked to Osborn than to a standard Democrat. And he remains relatively unknown by most of those surveyed.

More than 75% of the Nebraskans surveyed had no opinion of Osborn, didn’t know who he was or declined to share an opinion of him. Fischer was known to all but 14% of those polled.

Osborn’s campaign has said the race is closer than indicated by the Fischer poll. The campaign has pointed to a Public Policy Polling survey from May that indicated Fischer led 37%-33%, with a 3.7% margin of error. 

An internal Fischer poll at about this time in her 2018 race against Democratic State Sen. Jane Raybould of Lincoln showed Fischer leading by 10 percentage points, her campaign said.

A quick look

Senate race (statewide)

Fischer 50% 

Osborn: 24% 

Eddy: 9% 

Undecided: 17%

Presidential race (statewide)

Trump 52% 

Biden 33% 

Someone Else: 11% 

Undecided: 4% 

Presidential race (2nd District) 

Trump 42%

Biden 42%

Someone else 12%

2nd District House race

Bacon 46%

Vargas 43%

Undecided: 11%

Source: Fischer campaign poll by Torchlight Strategies

Fischer, in a statement, said she has visited all 93 counties, has campaign chairs in every county and has built a door-knocking operation that will help her turn out her voters this November.

“These milestones are a testament to the widespread support we have across Nebraska, and our commitment to earn each and every vote,” she said in the statement.

A peek at 2nd District presidential

Political observers expected Fischer and Trump to lead in polling, given the nearly 2-to-1 registration advantage that Republicans hold over Democrats statewide.

The Fischer poll indicated Trump holds a 52%-33% statewide lead over President Joe Biden, who has been dogged in recent days by speculation over his future in the race. They did not include Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the survey.

The poll also dug a deeper into the one slice of Nebraska that’s drawing national attention, the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District, where Trump and Biden were tied at 42%.

In the 2nd District, the poll sampled about 300 people on the presidential race, Torchlight co-founder John Rogers said. That’s enough to get a good idea about both candidates’ support. 

That polling result could spell trouble for Biden, given that the presumptive Democratic nominee won the 2nd District’s stray Electoral College vote in 2020 by 6 percentage points.

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that award an Electoral College vote to the general election winner in each congressional district.

Nebraska’s 2nd District backed Biden in 2020, Trump in 2016, Mitt Romney in 2012 and former President Barack Obama in 2008, sending each a single electoral vote.

Gov. Jim Pillen has said he would like to call a special session to switch the state to winner-take-all this year. Maine lawmakers have said they’ll match that in the Democratic-leaning state if Nebraska does.

Poll also peeked at Bacon-Vargas House race

The poll also surveyed the 2nd District House race between Republican incumbent Rep. Don Bacon and State Sen. Tony Vargas of Omaha.

The poll indicated Bacon leading by 3 percentage points, 46%-43%, with 11% undecided, which is within the 6.3% margin of error of that smaller slice of the statewide survey.  The latest snapshot echoes the candidates’ first match-up in 2022.

Bacon beat Vargas by 3 percentage points that year. This time, Vargas has an edge over Bacon in cash on hand, with $2.5 million to Bacon’s $2.2 million, but both have more than they did in July 2022.

Vargas raised $1.36 million in the second quarter. Bacon raised $970,000 for his campaign. Both expect millions in outside spending on the race from local and national groups.

The Vargas campaign this spring shared a poll that showed them leading narrowly as well, within the margin of error.

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