Florida Republicans more sure than ever about Trump, unsure about what’s next for DeSantis and Rubio

Florida Republicans left their national convention more sure than ever that former President Donald Trump will return to the presidency, but uncertain about what the future holds for the state’s two other favorite sons.

The political outlook for the state’s two other most prominent political leaders, Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, was cloudier as Republicans wrapped up their week in Milwaukee than it was when they began arriving.

Trump’s selection of U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio as his pick for vice president was praised by Republicans everywhere, including Florida. But it greatly complicates the political calculus for DeSantis and Rubio, both of whom have had their own presidential ambitions thwarted by Trump before — and possibly again by the Vance choice.

One thing the Vance pick didn’t do is alter the 2024 outlook in Florida. Democratic protestations notwithstanding, there wasn’t any evidence suggesting Trump would have any difficulty winning Florida’s 30 electoral votes before the convention, and no indication of any change coming out of the convention.

DeSantis

DeSantis, who was propelled to the governor’s office in 2018 on the strength of Trump’s endorsement, then unsuccessfully challenged him for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, is widely expected to run for the nomination again in 2028.

Vance, especially if he’s the sitting vice president, would be a formidable candidate for the presidential nomination — especially if Republicans see him as heir to Trump and his MAGA movement.

“The thing that we can say with confidence is, should Trump win in November, it will put Senator Vance in a strong position to win the nomination in 2028,” said Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University.

Analysts and political insiders are divided over whether the Vance selection merely complicates the 2028 strategy for DeSantis — or dooms his chances.

“I think Vance was particularly harmful for DeSantis’ ambitions,” said Mac Stipanovich, a longtime high-level Florida Republican strategist, who’s left the party and is now a critic of both DeSantis and Trump.

Stipanovich said Vance is “the better DeSantis. DeSantis takes great pride in his middle class background. Well, the author of ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ (Vance) will see that bet and raise it. DeSantis takes great pride in being a Navy lawyer who did a tour of duty in Iraq. Vance was a Marine in Iraq, not a Navy lawyer … DeSantis is awkward and stilted in public. J.D. Vance is a guy you’d want to go have a beer with.”

“Of all the potential candidates that Trump could have picked, Vance was the worst, in my judgment, in the context of DeSantis’ ambition,” he said.

Sean Foreman, a political scientist at Barry University, said it’s a mistake to write off DeSantis.

“DeSantis lost the primary and he was diminished nationally from his failing presidential campaign. But he’s not politically dead,” he said.

“I don’t think the selection of Vance precludes a future presidential campaign. Vance now wears the MAGA mantle moving forward, and if the Trump ticket wins he’ll be the vice president. He’ll be well-positioned for a 2028 nomination run,” Foreman said. “The initial reaction is that the sitting vice president would be the frontrunner, but that doesn’t make him a shoo-in. It’s a whole new cycle.”

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Richard DeNapoli, a convention delegate who is Broward’s elected state Republican committeeman and a former county GOP chair, also said it would be incorrect to assume Vance dooms DeSantis in 2028.

“It doesn’t mean that (other) people aren’t going to run,” he said. A vice president generally doesn’t glide into the nomination and “we don’t know what kind of a vice president he’s going to be because you’ve seen so many different versions of it in the last 20 years.”

Michael Barnett, a convention delegate and former Palm Beach County Republican Party chair, said he doesn’t think DeSantis would be deterred by a Vice President Vance. Like DeNapoli, he said vice president doesn’t automatically translate into presidential nominee.

“He’ll have a break between 2026 and 2028 where people are expecting that he’ll be on the ballot for president,” Barnett said. “Whatever happens in 2028 it will be a crowded race. I fully expect to see Governor DeSantis and J.D. Vance on the ballot.”

(DeSantis appointed Barnett to fill a vacancy on the Palm Beach County Commission; he’s running for a full term in the job.)

Convention delegate Michele Merrell, who is Broward’s elected state Republican committeewoman, termed the futures of both DeSantis and Rubio as “extraordinarily bright.”

Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party, scoffed at the notion that DeSantis has a political future.

“What political aspirations? His political future is over. He has no path,” Fried said during a video news conference on the last day of the Republican convention. “And so now that Trump has given the nod to J.D. that he is going to be MAGA 2.0, I truly don’t know where Ron goes from here, and quite honestly, on behalf of myself as a Floridian, it couldn’t happen to a nicer person.”

Fried — who lost the 2022 Democratic primary for governor to Charlie Crist, who overwhelmingly lost the general election to DeSantis — spent four years criticizing DeSantis when she was state agriculture commissioner during his first term as governor.

The key may be who Trump supports as his successor.

“I don’t think it will forestall a primary, but I think whoever Trump endorses, that will be the biggest factor,” DeNapoli said.

Stipanovich agreed. “As long as Trump draws breath, he’s going to matter in a Republican primary. And I don’t think there’s a chance in hell” that Trump would endorse DeSantis over Vance, he said.

Rubio

The state’s senior senator was one of the finalists Trump considered as vice president. Rubio and Vance were both once fierce Trump critics, but have transformed themselves into Trump champions.

The state’s senior senator was passed over by Trump, even after he repeatedly praised the former president and echoed virtually everything Trump said, often minimizing anything that some people would regard as extreme.

Donald Trump Jr. was widely reported to have strongly favored Vance as his father’s running mate. And son Eric Trump told the Florida delegation that the constitutional question remained a hurdle.

The 12th Amendment to the Constitution prevents electors from casting a state’s electoral votes for a presidential and vice presidential candidate from the same state, setting up a scenario under which Rubio would have had to move from Florida.

Republicans also hope that Vance, an Ohio senator, can help Trump chip away at the Democrats’ “blue wall” of northern industrial states, though political scientists who have analyzed results have concluded that vice presidential picks don’t alter the results. People base their votes on the top of the tickets.

Though Trump and Rubio had a nasty competition for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, the senator became a strong supporter and influential foreign policy adviser once Trump became president.

Rubio is vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, making him one of the so-called Gang of Eight in Congress who are regularly briefed on highly sensitive information, and a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee. That background has many Floridians hoping Trump would nominate Rubio as secretary of state if he wins the presidency.

“I wanted Marco as vice president. We’ll take him as secretary of state,” Barnett said.

Even if that doesn’t happen, Rubio would be in a position to wield significant influence on world affairs, especially if Republicans win control of the Senate, which many political analysts see as a foregone conclusion.

“It’s clear that Senator Rubio would be on a short list of potential cabinet secretaries, with State being particularly one of the places where he could potentially be a choice,” Wagner said.

Although he’s a “logical candidate,” Foreman cautioned against “getting ahead of ourselves too much” with such speculation.

In the spotlight

Rubio (nine minutes) and DeSantis (eight minutes) both had convention speaking slots in primetime. Their rounds also included subsequent breakfasts of the home-state convention delegation.

Their televised speeches were on Tuesday, the night reserved for multiple Republicans who had sought their party’s nomination — Rubio in 2016 and DeSantis in 2024 — and were vanquished by Trump.

All the former opponents turned acolytes touted Trump, while he watched from his box in the arena, as he basked in the praise. The next night, Rubio got to sit next to Trump and watch some of the proceedings from the nominee’s box at the convention arena.

At least DeSantis got a laugh from Trump, which came when DeSantis referred to President Joe Biden’s time in office as the “Weekend at Bernie’s presidency,” a reference to the movie in which people pass off the corpse of their dead boss as still alive.

Political moves

Senate appointment: If Rubio becomes secretary of state or another cabinet position, DeSantis would get to appoint a replacement senator.

“The ability to fill a vacant Senate seat is one of the more significant powers that a governor has and can be quite influential on a larger political universe,” Wagner said.

Stipanovich said he doubts the governor would engineer a Senate appointment for himself. It would seem like too much of a shady political maneuver that could leave a negative impression for some voters, he said.

Governor’s race: The convention was a chance for the potential candidates for the 2026 Republican nomination for governor to show themselves off before committed party activists and financial supporters. Term limits prevent DeSantis from running again.

Prospects politicking at the convention included Attorney General Ashley Moody, Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson and U.S. Reps. Byron Donalds, Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz.

Stipanovich said there’s been thought among some — he categorized it as “happy hour speculation” — “that because of (U.S. Sen.) Rick Scott’s presidential ambitions, he would return to run for governor in 2028 again.” Although Scott has served two terms, totaling eight years, as governor, he’s been out of that office so he legally could run again. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez told NBC News he was thinking of running. And Politico reported from Milwaukee that some Republicans had mused about the idea of Rubio as “a possibility” to run for governor.

Optimistic Republicans

Floridians who’ve been delegates before said this year’s convention was more unified and more energized than previous quadrennial gatherings they’d attended.

“The intensity here is something I have never experienced,” said Merrell, the state Republican committeewoman from Broward. “I never thought we could top 2016. However, this week (has been) in the stratosphere.”

DeNapoli said “everyone’s been in a happy mood. A lot of positive energy. A lot of excitement, confidence.”

Barnett described 2024 as having “more energy and more excitement, and less uncertainty. More unity.”

For Florida delegates, that’s partly seeing the state as solidly Republican after decades as a swing state that could go either way in presidential contests, and partly from optimism that Trump will win the presidency.

“We’re getting ready to win. We’re getting ready to take back this White House, starting with Florida,” Barnett said.

National attention, and the candidates, are less likely to devote time and money to Florida. “Florida is slipping away from the competitive column,” Foreman said.

Democrats, hoping to avoid a collapse of enthusiasm among their voters that could hurt candidates lower down the ballot, insist Florida could produce a surprise.

A state Democratic Party fundraising email blast on Friday asserted that “Donald Trump’s margin in Florida has NARROWED — making it only a 4 point difference.” Its evidence: A headline from a news site that’s become known largely for clickbait.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.