Forecasters up predictions to ‘above normal’ hurricane season due to record warm sea temperatures

Shira Moolten, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
·2 min read

Meteorologists with Colorado State University have upped their forecast to an “above normal” hurricane season in the Atlantic this year due to the “extreme anomalous warmth” of sea surface temperatures.

The intensifying effect of that warm water may have won out over the tempering effects of El Niño, forecasters said in the report issued Thursday.

“While we continue to anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic now has record warm sea surface temperatures,” the updated report reads. “El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear.”

Thursday’s forecast is the second time the forecasters have upped their predictions.

In the initial forecast released in April, CSU meteorologists called for 13 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which were expected to be major. In June, meteorologists increased their forecast to 15 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major.

The new forecast, announced Thursday, now predicts 18 named storms and nine hurricanes, four of which will be major.

Related Articles

The forecast already includes an unnamed subtropical storm in January and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June.

Uncertainty in the outlook remains “larger than normal,” forecasters wrote.

High levels of uncertainty have been a recurring theme in predictions of the 2023 hurricane season. The combination of a strong El Niño and extreme warmth the Atlantic is largely unprecedented, experts say.

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration announced predictions of a “near-normal” hurricane season in late May. The agency called for between 12 and 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes in its 2023 outlook, while also underlining the unusual amount of uncertainty.

“When we looked at it, we were like, ‘Wow, there is a lot of uncertainty in the outlook,'” Matthew Rosencrans, director of NOAA’s Climate Test Bed, said at the news conference announcing the predictions in May.

So far, NOAA has not announced any updates to its forecast.

CSU will issue another update on Aug. 3.