Forecasters are tracking a new disturbance in the Atlantic. What’s the MS Coast forecast?

Martha Sanchez
·2 min read
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A disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean moved slowly toward the Caribbean on Monday, where forecasters say it could be the first storm to develop since Hurricane Beryl pounded the region early this month.

The disturbance is in the central Atlantic Ocean and heading toward the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles, the National Hurricane Center said Monday morning.

Forecasters said the disturbance will hit a tropical wave this week and could strengthen to a tropical depression by Friday. It appears to pose the greatest risk to Florida but meteorologists warned early forecasts are often unreliable and can change.

The disturbance could slowly evolve into the “potential of something near Florida over the weekend,” Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore wrote on social media. “Still a low confidence forecast of where and what it will be.”

National Hurricane Center forecasters said the disturbance has a near zero chance of becoming a tropical depression within two days. It has a 50 percent chance of development through the next week.

“The big question is, does it head over Cuba? Or does it work its way off the southeast coast?” Cantore said on CBS Mornings. “These are storms that can develop in a hurry, so we’ve got to watch this one.”

The disturbance ends weeks of calm in the Atlantic after Hurricane Beryl pounded the Caribbean as a Category 5 storm, then weakened and hit Texas with Category 1 force that left nearly 3 million homes and businesses in the dark. Saharan Dust that had blanketed the Atlantic began to settle last week, which improves the chances of tropical activity.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are tracking a disturbance in the Atlantic Monday morning.
National Hurricane Center forecasters are tracking a disturbance in the Atlantic Monday morning.

The latest disturbance does not suggest a significant threat to the Caribbean “even if the system develops before reaching the islands”, meteorologist Michael Lowry wrote in his newsletter on Monday.

The disturbance will likely develop as it nears the Bahamas late Friday or Saturday. Lowry said models “show a weak tropical system largely turning near or east of Florida this weekend.”

“Models suggest the potential for further development,” he wrote, “but it’s by no means a slam dunk.”