Fort Collins' power provider shares 20-year plan: No coal, way more renewables. And gas.

Platte River Power Authority presented its formal plan for how it proposes to meet the energy needs of its customers over the next several years: by introducing a new carbon source and exponentially adding renewable energy sources while pursuing emerging technologies.

For a year, the power provider for Fort Collins, Loveland, Estes Park and Longmont has been under pressure from citizen groups to abandon its plans to add natural gas-fueled turbines, even as it plans to stop using coal by 2029. That's because PRPA made a commitment to try and achieve a portfolio of 100% carbon-free energy sources by 2030.

But PRPA says it needs the new aeroderivative gas turbines in order to "make renewable energy reliable," saying these turbines can ramp up and turn off on a dime when energy can't be produced by wind and solar.

The utility says other proven technologies on the market today can't entirely fill those gaps for "dispatchable capacity" while the utility builds up renewable sources and abandons coal.

In the next 20 years, PRPA plans to add almost three times its wind capacity and 10 times its solar capacity while cutting all coal by 2029. It will add 200 megawatts from the aeroderivative gas turbines to the existing 388-megawatt gas turbines.

The utility also plans to pursue a virtual power plant so it can benefit from customers' solar, storage and flexibility. The plan would expand PRPA's own battery storage so it can hold onto excess renewable energy for times when it's needed later, as well.

PRPA will also be able to buy and sell energy after it joins the Southwest Power Pool's RTO West energy market in 2026.

PRPA representatives say once hydrogen technology becomes widely available on the market, it will be able to blend hydrogen with natural gas in the new gas turbines, with no retrofitting or additional costs. There will be additional costs for retrofits to accommodate 100% hydrogen, a PRPA question-and-answer page notes.

All of these changes are projected to result in carbon reductions of almost 90%: From 2 million tons this year to 240,000 tons in 2030, a presentation at PRPA's headquarters projected.

"We are not going away from our goal of clean energy transition, decarbonizing," said Raj Singham Setti, PRPA's COO of innovation and resource strategy integration. "We are making sure that we are adding as much renewable energy resources to the portfolio as we can, we are trying to make sure it's going to be reliable and we're making sure that we are doing it in an economical way."

PRPA has said it can't pursue its goal to be carbon-free without adhering to all three of its pillars: environmental responsibility, financial sustainability and reliability.

"This is a journey, not a race," Singham Setti said, noting that some advocates have asked why PRPA isn't doing the same thing other utilities are doing. "We want to do it in an economically viable way."

PRPA isn't as large as Xcel Energy and doesn't have as many resources, for example. He also noted that more utilities are aiming for noncarbon goals now, creating more competition for the technology needed to do that.

But environmental sustainability groups say PRPA has still not made a case for why the 200 megawatts of capacity from gas is needed to ensure reliability to the four communities, which together own the utility.

Citizens group Northern Colorado Partners for Clean Energy wants PRPA to collaborate with leaders in sustainable energy to find a solution that allows it to achieve its 2030 goal.

Critics of the gas facility worry the $240 million it is estimated to cost will lead to PRPA having "a stranded asset," where ratepayers are on the hook for it when cleaner alternatives are emerging.

While Wednesday's public presentation of the 2024 integrated resource plan was the last step before board approval on July 25, the plan will have to be updated every five years.

Here's what citizen groups are saying

Northern Colorado Partners for Clean Energy said the new turbines are "antithetical to PRPA’s stated mission and to the 100% non-carbon goal established in 2018."

In a news release, the group said it believes gas alternatives are likely to be "more cost competitive well within the lifetime of the gas plant, leaving an unsustainable financial situation of owning an asset we don’t use."

The group said PRPA could collaborate with Colorado Public Utilities Commission, National Renewable Energy Lab, Rocky Mountain Institute, the Department of Energy and others to come up with a different solution.

How much electricity does PRPA generate, and from what sources?

Here's a "by the numbers" look at PRPA's plans:

In 2024, PRPA reports about 36% of its portfolio comes from renewable energy. Coal makes up about 44%, and gas contributes 3%.

In 2024, PRPA estimated it will produce 2 million tons in carbon emissions.

Current sources of electricity are, according to PRPA's website:

• Coal: 431 MW

• Gas: 388 MW

• Wind: 303 MW

• Solar: 52 MW

• Hydropower: 80 MW

In 20 years, under PRPA's recommended plan, known as "optimal carbon," the utility expects to cut all coal (by 2029) and add:

• Wind: 885 MW

• Solar: 600 MW

• Four-hour battery storage: 275 MW

• Thermal (gas): 200 MW

• Long-duration energy storage: 160 MW

• Distributed solar: 337 MW

• Distributed storage: 123 MW

The estimated cost of this plan is $2.77 billion, and it's expected to reduce carbon emissions to 241,000 tons of carbon by 2030 and to 74,000 tons by 2035.

Under this plan, PRPA expects to be 88% carbon free by 2030 and to continue working toward being 100% carbon free.

PRPA also modeled a "no new carbon" portfolio that would forgo the gas turbines and increase four-hour storage capacity. It would cost nearly double, according to their analysis, reaching $5.34 billion.

But it would result in more carbon savings sooner, down to 126,000 tons in 2030.

How far off is a virtual power plant?

A virtual power plant is a system tied to participating customers' "distributed energy resources": solar panels, batteries, appliances, thermostats, electric vehicles and heat pumps. The virtual power plant has the ability to manage them according to the needs of the grid.

The system could call on energy sources' power when grid demand is high, and it can also reduce those devices' energy use during those times. When demand is lower, the system could store surplus energy via batteries or direct a device to charge an electric vehicle.

PRPA would use its Efficiency Works home efficiency program to enroll customers in the virtual power plant.

PRPA estimates that by 2030, it could provide about 30 megawatts from a virtual power plant. It will need 50,000 devices participating in a virtual power plant in order to do that.

A graph presented Wednesday shows a virtual power plant could grow to provide more than 120 megawatts in 20 years.

What is PRPA pursuing for battery storage?

The recommended plan calls for adding 275 megawatts of four-hour battery storage in the next 20 years. It anticipates long-term storage to provide 160 megawatts in the next 20 years.

The "no new carbon" portfolio that PRPA modeled would have invested exponentially more in four-hour batteries, leading to the higher cost for that alternative.

Soon, each of the four owner cities will get one four-hour battery, said Paul Davis, manager of distributed energy sources.

PRPA expects those batteries to provide a total of 20 megawatts by 2027.

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Platte River Power Authority shares plan for energy portfolio