Frosty autumn on Cape Cod? What the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts for fall weather
It's a bit depressing to think about, but there's a train rolling toward Cape Cod called the Autumn Express. For some, it's a welcome change from summer heat and a return to crisp, comfortable temperatures. For others, it's a rotten turn from beach days to pumpkin spice haze.
However you slice it, fall is as inevitable as erosion on the Cape. Perhaps the best thing we can do is figure out what kind of weather might be coming. Then we can make informed decisions on vital topics, like what wardrobe additions will be necessary for apple picking.
And so we've assembled autumn weather prognostications from the venerable almanac twins: the Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac. The Old Farmer's Almanac (first published in 1792) has been around longer than the Farmers' Almanac (1818), but both are wicked fun reads and perhaps essential New England companions.
We're also including the seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. Let's see if these titans of the weather world agree about what's coming our way this fall.
The fall forecast summary from the Old Farmer's Almanac
According to the Old Farmer's Almanac fall forecast, for a good chunk of the United States, "your trek to the pumpkin patch may be a bit steamy this year." Warmer than average fall weather is predicted for much of the western part of the country including Alaska and Hawaii.
Cooler than average fall temperatures are predicted for regions including the Southeast, the Ohio Valley, Florida and the Atlantic corridor.
But our region, the Northeast, along with the deep South and the upper Midwest are predicted to have "average temperatures for this time of year compared to historical temperatures," according to the Old Farmer's Almanac.
On the plus side, the Old Farmer's Almanac adds that "average temperatures and below-average rainfalls could translate to some pretty foliage in the Northeastern region."
The Farmers' Almanac extended fall forecast
The Farmers' Almanac starts its fall weather rundown with this interesting tidbit: "October is usually the clearest time of the year over the Eastern US, but not so this year. Our forecast is pointing towards twice as many cloudy and showery days as opposed to fair and sunny dry days."
They also toss this weather log on the fire: "Temperatures in the Northeast will also cool down quickly and November may see some snow in New England."
The Cape Cod region falls under the "Crisp, Unsettled" category on the fall forecast map from the Farmers' Almanac.
Climate Prediction Center seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks
We now turn to a less folksy purveyor of weather information, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. Their seasonal map outlooks are a product of powerful computer models and significant staff hours and are expressed as probabilities. The outlooks are used by businesses, including the energy industry, for planning.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, the Cape Cod region has a 50% to 60% chance of above normal temperatures for the months of September, October and November, a category called "Likely Above."
In the precipitation department, the Cape Cod region has a 33% to 40% chance of above normal precipitation for the months of September, October and November, a category called "Leaning Above."
Eric Williams, when not solving Curious Cape Cod mysteries, writes about a variety of ways to enjoy the Cape, the weather, wildlife and other subjects. Contact him at ewilliams@capecodonline.com. Follow him on X: @capecast.
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This article originally appeared on Cape Cod Times: Old Farmer's Almanac weather forecast for fall on Cape Cod
