Gov. Noem's MAGA star shined at the RNC, but data in her speech was a bit off: Analysis

Republican bumper stickers won't be reading "Trump-Noem" this election cycle, but the South Dakota governor did not waver in her support of the former POTUS.

Gov. Kristi Noem gave her remarks at about 8 p.m. CDT Monday to attendees of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Noem, once considered a vice-presidential contender, spoke to Republican leaders and delegates hours after she was knocked off the Republican ticket when Trump formally announced Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate over social media.

More: Donald Trump selects Ohio senator J.D. Vance over Kristi Noem to be running mate

Noem addressed the convention during the event's primetime hours, speaking about 10 minutes after Goya Foods CEO Robert Unanue and several prominent Republican lawmakers.

Giving a thumbs-up mid-stride as she approached the speaker podium, Noem looked and acted the part of a sterling Republican star despite having recently endured months of nationwide scrutiny for "No Going Back," a book published in May about her political leadership that included her account of killing a hunting dog and at least two historical inaccuracies that needed corrections by the publishing company.

With a smile, Noem began her speech by looking to the crowd.

"You all look fantastic," Noem said, before pointing to a group of RNC attendees wearing cowboy hats and saying she loved the look.

"And a shout out to South Dakota," she continued.

More: Transcript: South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem's 2024 RNC speech

The South Dakota governor then pitched her home state as a model of "Making America Wealthy Again" during her RNC speech — the second she's given for Trump after her 2020 remarks. But her well-spoken oration and confidence-boosting party message included some misleading data on the state's economy, labor and health sectors.

Noem's MAGA theme was framed partly around her COVID record. She is notorious for refusing to institute state-wide lockdowns and mask mandates when the pandemic was raging, even when the state became the nation's hot spot for the virus with an influx of cases at the Smithfield Foods Plant in Sioux Falls.

Noem declared a state of emergency on March 13, 2020, recommended that the state’s public schools close for the rest of the academic year in early April and issued an executive order directing people older than age 65 in Minnehaha and Lincoln counties to stay at home.

"When other states were pushing mandates and lockdowns, instead, in South Dakota, we hit the gas," Noem said. "We embrace liberty. We told our story and we invited people to come and to enjoy our beautiful state. Now, all of the things that conservatives have always talked about, we just did it, and it worked."

South Dakota's governor holds the state's 'strong economy' as 'a beacon of Freedom for America.' Some of her data looks off.

Noem drew up another metaphor to hoist South Dakota high by talking of South Dakota's economic and workforce boons. Low unemployment, improving infrastructure, and record surpluses, among other things, are signs that Trump's hands-off approach in 2020 worked for the state, the governor said.

"Since I’ve been governor, we broke the national record for lowest unemployment rate in American history at 1.8%," Noem said.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, indeed, reported in June 2023 that South Dakota's unemployment rate — a preliminary figure, as the state noted in a related press release — reached a record-breaking mark.

But the agency, which is a function of the U.S. Department of Labor, later revised these figures. Instead, the bureau's latest data shows South Dakota's unemployment rate was actually 2% in June 2023, and tied the record rate of 1.9% from February 2023 to May 2023.

Preliminary unemployment data for May 2024 shows South Dakota's unemployment rate is 2%.

"We paid off state debts and bonds. We fixed dams and bridge," Noem continued. "We built roads. We have a fully-funded pension plan and a AAA credit rating. We broke records for surpluses. We balance our budget every single year. And last year, we passed the largest tax cut in South Dakota history."

Noem's Office announced Monday the state closed its 2024 budget year with a $80.7 million surplus, which was transferred to the state's budget reserves, which now total $322.8 million.

South Dakota's surplus and reserves are slimmer compared with previous years. The state ended its 2023 budget year with a $96.8 million surplus, which then boosted state reserves to $335.7 million that year. The 2022 budget year, similarly, closed with a $115.5 million surplus, and its consequently rose the reserve total to $422.6 million.

Noem also said incomes "have gone up over 36%" under her administration, but she didn't specifically refer to South Dakota incomes in her remarks. The state Department of Labor & Regulation shows that the median household income in 2019 — the year Noem took office — was $60,414, and increased 14.4% to $70,597 by 2022, the latest year state data has been recorded.

Women owned businesses are "thriving," she added.

Plus, Noem claimed South Dakota also has the "highest birth rate in the nation." Simply put, "people are having babies because they are happy," she added.

But CDC data shows a different story. According to an April 4 National Vital Statistics Reports, the organization's most recent report on reproductive figures, South Dakota's birth rate — the number of live births per 1,000 women in a total population — reached 12.3 in 2022, higher than the national average of 11 but lower than several other states.

On the other hand, the state's fertility rate — a similar but different rate referring to the total number of live births per 1,000 women of aged 15 to 44 — was the highest in the nation at 66.5, sitting above the national average of 56.

Noem also said "mental health challenges have gone down," with "declining" suicide rates and overdoses.

According to a South Dakota Department of Health suicide data dashboard, provisional data shows individual suicide counts dipped between the start of April 2023 and December 2023, while bumping up slightly between January and March of this year. And while the number of suicides dropped between 2021 and 2022, Noem's statement doesn't fully invoke the steady increase in suicide rates since 2012, as reflected in the DOH's figures.

CDC data does show South Dakota's death rate tied to drug overdoses is the lowest in the nation.

Despite months of scrutiny, Noem's MAGA star glimmered once more

In the wake of an attempted assassination on Saturday, when Trump was shot in the ear at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Noem described the incident as a moment "the whole world changed."

"Evil displayed itself in the very worst way, through a cowardly act. An innocent American lost his life, and we continue to lift his family up in our prayers," Noem said.

The statement was the first time Noem publicly referenced Corey Comperatore, a 50-year-old Pennsylvania firefighter who was killed during the shooting. She posted two statements over social media shortly after the news broke of the incident, and her condolences were mostly focused on Trump.

More: 'These people are evil': How Noem's response to Trump rally shooting differs from other leaders

The second-term governor summoned the imagery of those instantly iconic and terrible pictures of Trump that circulated nearly-immediately after the attempt on his life.

This was, for Noem, the moment that most resonated with her Republican fellows.

"But even in the most perilous moment this week, his instinct was to stand and fight," Noem said. Her words were followed by chants of "fight" and fist-pumps from the crowd. The word was seemingly shouted by Trump himself moments after he was shot, his fist in the air as Secret Service agents responded.

"Prior to this week, we already knew that Donald Trump is a fighter," Noem said. "He is the toughest man I’ve ever met. Nobody has endured more than what he’s been through. They attacked his reputation, impeached him, tried to bankrupt him, and unjustly prosecuted him."

The Republican Party published a Trump-led platform July 8, which was then adopted Monday at the RNC.

The platform document lists a series of conservative policies that Trump plans to push for if he wins the presidency. This includes stricter U.S.-Mexico border and migration measures, tackling inflation, planting the U.S. as the dominant energy producer in the world.

It also posits cutting federal funding for "any school pushing critical race theory, radical gender ideology," and preventing transgender athletes from participating in women's sports.

The new GOP platform softened its language on abortion by favoring a state-led approach over a longstanding federal ban position.

Noem's carefully crafted her political image to Trump's liking while seeking the VP pick, but her strong anti-abortion stance — she previously defended the lack of rape and incest exceptions in South Dakota's extreme abortion ban — conflicted with that of Trump, whose new platform opposes late term abortions.

"South Dakota proved that Freedom will make America wealthy again," Noem said. "And with President Trump in the White House, with Sen. J.D. Vance by his side, we will prove it across America."

This article originally appeared on Sioux Falls Argus Leader: Gov. Noem touts South Dakota as model of 'Making America Wealthy Again': Analysis