Gulf of Mexico disturbance may become tropical depression, National Hurricane Center says

Alexis Simmerman, Austin American-Statesman
·3 min read
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Chances improved Wednesday night for development of two tropical systems, according to the National Hurricane Center's latest tropical outlook. A system in the western Gulf of Mexico that appeared on the center's map Wednesday has the potential for development.

"A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week," according to the National Hurricane Center.

The other system is Invest 90L, which has brought widespread flooding to South and Southwest Florida over most of the week and is now near the east coast of Florida. As it moves into the Atlantic, it's possible it could run into conditions and become the season's first tropical storm, Alberto, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger.

The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring four tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean.

History of hurricanes: Where do most hurricanes hit in Texas? See storm strikes by county since 1900

Tropical conditions 2 a.m. June 13, 2024.
Tropical conditions 2 a.m. June 13, 2024.

2024 hurricane predictions: Gulf of Mexico

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico either this weekend or early next week, according to the National Weather Service. Here are the predictions as of Thursday morning:

  • Chance of formation through 48 hours: low, near 0%

  • Chance of formation through 7 days: medium, 40%

Wednesday's update: National Hurricane Center tracking new disturbance in Gulf of Mexico, south of Texas

Will Invest 90L become Hurricane Alberto?

"While this disturbance (Invest 90L) will not become a named tropical storm before clearing Florida, local impacts will continue to be significant, particularly in Southwest Florida," according to Truchelut, who works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.

Here are the predictions as of Thursday morning:

  • Chance of formation through 48 hours: low, 20%

  • Chance of formation through 7 days: medium, 20%

More on Alberto: List of 2024 Atlantic hurricane names leads with Alberto. See which retired this year

Tropical conditions 8 a.m. June 13, 2024.
Tropical conditions 8 a.m. June 13, 2024.

Tropical waves

In addition to the two tropical disturbances, the National Hurricane Center is also tracking four tropical waves:

  • Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave is located in the Atlantic. It's moving west at 17 mph.

  • Tropical wave 2: Another tropical wave in the Atlantic also is moving west at 17 mph

  • Tropical wave 3: A tropical wave in the Caribbean is moving west at 6-11 mph.

  • Tropical wave 4: Another tropical wave in the Caribbean is moving west at 11-17 mph.

How much rain can Texas expect?

The National Weather Service reports much of southeastern Texas can expect rainfall throughout the next week. The most impacted portions of the area are projected to get three to four inches over the next seven days.

Southeast Texas will see rainfall throughout the next week as a tropical disturbance develops in the Gulf of Mexico.
Southeast Texas will see rainfall throughout the next week as a tropical disturbance develops in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane storm tracker: See active storms in the Atlantic

Weather watches and warnings issued in Texas

What is La Niña?

La Niña, which means "little girl" in Spanish, is a climate phenomenon characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña and its opposite, El Niño, as well as a neutral phase, are part of a larger climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The tropical Pacific can be in either one of those three states.

La Niña can also contribute to a more active Atlantic hurricane season. This means Texas might face a higher risk of hurricanes and tropical storms making landfall, bringing heavy rainfall and potential flooding. The NOAA predicts between 17 and 25 named storms this season, with four to seven becoming major hurricanes classified as category 3, 4, or 5.

Have any hurricanes hit the U.S. this hurricane season?

Hurricane season stretches from June 1 Nov. 30 with a peak in mid-September. There have not been any hurricanes this year in the U.S.

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

— USA TODAY reporter Cheryl McCloud contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: NHC: Gulf of Mexico activity near Texas may become tropical depression