Hurricane Beryl heads toward Cancun, Mexico. What will be impact to Gulf Coast, Florida?
Hurricane Beryl is headed toward the Yucatan Peninsula after pummeling the Cayman Islands on its way to the Yucatan Peninsula, according to the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. advisory.
The storm's eyewall passed about 95 west-southwest of Grand Cayman late Thursday morning as a Category 3 hurricane. It is expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday.
Beryl lashed the southern coast of Jamaica Wednesday as a Category 4 hurricane with 140-mph winds.
Beryl remains a Category 2 hurricane, packing 110 mph winds. It is forecast to remain a hurricane as it makes landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early Friday, the NHC said.
After emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, Beryl will likely have a couple of days to re-strengthen over warm waters with light or moderate shear.
Almost all of the model guidance shows the system near hurricane strength as Beryl approaches the western Gulf Coast, and so does the official NHC forecast.
Beryl is growing more likely to affect northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of the storm, the NHC warns.
Portions of South Texas are now within the forecast cone of Hurricane Beryl, which meteorologists say could arrive in the state over the weekend or early Monday, USA TODAY reported.
"From Panama City, Florida to New Orleans, there is a low risk of direct impacts from Beryl, but from about Corpus Christi to Brownsville, Texas, the risk increases significantly due to the potential for Beryl to have more direct impacts," AccuWeather meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. "That southern portion of the Texas coast is the zone we have to really watch."
Regardless of the exact track, rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast.
➤ Damage: Beryl destroys more than 90% of building on some Caribbean islands
Hurricane Beryl a storm without precedent. That's not good
While Beryl poses a serious threat to the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend, its implications for the season ahead are also sobering, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.
Hurricane Beryl: Why a storm without precedent signals bad season ahead | WeatherTiger
"When Beryl peaked at Category 5 intensity on Tuesday, it became not only the earliest Category 5 in Atlantic history, but both the strongest June and strongest July hurricane on record."
This is especially remarkable given that any kind of early-season tropical development is rare in the eastern Atlantic, Truchelut said.
"In the last 150 years, there are 10 seasons in which a hurricane formed in the Main Development Region before August: 2021, 2020, 2018, 2008, 2005, 1996, 1961, 1933, 1926, and 1887. All of those years were above-normal hurricane seasons, averaging almost double the intensity of a normal season."
What does that mean?
"You should do the things you can do now to prepare before the inevitable cone-panic hits. So, trim those trees, know where you would go if you need to evacuate, and make sure your hurricane kits are in good order, " Truchelut said.
AccuWeather forecasters: Impact to southern Texas depends on Beryl's strength
After plowing into the Caribbean as a major hurricane, leaving death and destruction in its wake, Beryl is expected to make landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, before heading into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and making landfall again in northeastern Mexico, AccuWeather meteorologists predict.
The impact on northeastern Mexico and southern Texas will depend on how much Beryl strengthens over the Gulf and its speed when it arrives.
"A significant factor to consider is that Beryl's forward speed is likely to slow," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
A slower-moving storm will increase the duration of wind, surf and storm surge.
When it made its first landfall at 11 a.m. on Carriacou Island Monday, July 1, Beryl was a Category 4 storm with 150-mph winds.
Historically warm water affecting Beryl's strength
Factors affecting Beryl's intensity include much warmer-than-historical-average waters and wind shear, according to AccuWeather forecasters. If wind shear is strong enough, it can lead to weakening of tropical systems. Warm water helps storms develop and intensify.
AccuWeather Lead Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said water temperatures in early July are equal to what they usually are in late August, early September.
Spaghetti models: Where will Hurricane Beryl go next?
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Watches, warnings issued across Florida
Hurricane Beryl: What you need to know
Location: 215 miles east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico; 200 miles west of Grand Cayman
Maximum sustained winds: 110 mph
Movement: West-northwest at 20 mph
Pressure: 974 mb
Next advisory: 5 p.m.
Watches and warnings issued for Hurricane Beryl
For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning is in effect for:
The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch is in effect for:
The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning is in effect for the following:
The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche
Tropical storm watch: A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
Hurricane Beryl images, graphics, photos
How strong is Hurricane Beryl and where is it going?
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Beryl
Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions of that area.
There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge and heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this weekend. Interests in those areas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast.
Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast.
Current forecast: How strong is Hurricane Beryl expected to get?
Currently: 110 mph
12 hours: 100 mph
24 hours: 70 mph, inland
36 hours: 60 mph, over water
48 hours: 65 mph
60 hours: 70 mph
72 hours: 75 mph
96 hours: 50 mph, inland
120 hours: 30 mph, inland
What impact could Hurricane Beryl have and what areas could be affected?
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula late today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by tonight or early Friday.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands today. Over the Yucatan Peninsula, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, later today into Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated.
SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands. These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Central America later today and to eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?
What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane Beryl down to Category 2 storm, impact, projected path
