Hurricane Milton rapidly intensifying, could become Category 5 storm by Tuesday
NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Hurricane Milton is rapidly intensifying, with satellite images showing hints of an emerging eye.
The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has shifted slightly south of previous projections through the next 48 hours. Beyond that, the forecast remains relatively consistent, but the NHC notes that the average track error at three days is approximately 100 miles, so the exact path should not be the sole focus.
Milton’s intensity forecast is straightforward at this stage, with rapid intensification expected as the storm remains in favorable conditions with low wind shear and very warm waters.
Current intensity models show potential for Milton to reach Category 4 or 5 strength in the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two. The NHC has increased its intensity forecast, although it could still be underestimating the storm’s potential.
As Milton approaches Florida, wind shear is expected to increase, which may cause some weakening. However, regional hurricane models suggest that the storm could grow in size, even if it weakens, and it is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall.
Significant and widespread impacts are anticipated, with life-threatening hazards likely along the Florida west coast by midweek. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are likely to be issued tonight or early Monday.
Although it’s too early to determine the precise extent of impacts, life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds can be expected along the Florida Peninsula’s west coast, starting early Wednesday.
Heavy rainfall is expected across parts of Florida through Monday, even before Milton’s arrival, with more intense rainfall linked to the storm expected from Tuesday through Wednesday night. This could result in significant flash flooding, urban flooding, and potential major river flooding.
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