Hurricane Milton still a Category 5, forecast to weaken slightly before striking Florida midweek

NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — After explosively intensifying from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane, Milton has started to weaken as it goes through an eyewall replacement cycle.

Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Hurricane Milton. Earlier, the Hurricane Hunters recorded the minimum central pressure in the eye dropping to an estimated 897 millibars. This places Milton with the fifth-lowest central pressure ever recorded for an Atlantic basin hurricane.

However, later flights showed a slight increase in pressure, indicating some weakening with winds down to 165 mph. This reduction is likely due to an eyewall replacement cycle observed by the Hurricane Hunters. Despite the slight weakening, Milton remains an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane.

Milton is currently moving eastward at around 9 mph. The hurricane is expected to pass close to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday.

Milton is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward by late Tuesday and into Wednesday. This path is expected to take the system across the Florida Peninsula late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

As long as Milton stays in an environment with light wind shear and high oceanic heat content, its maximum strength will depend on inner-core fluctuations. However, within 24 hours, the hurricane is likely to encounter increased wind shear which should result in some weakening before making landfall on Florida’s western coast.

Regardless of this decrease in peak intensity, the eyewall replacement cycle will likely cause the hurricane’s destructive core to expand over the next day or two. Milton is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane at landfall, with life-threatening impacts along the coast and far inland.

The NHC says Florida residents should closely follow the guidance of local emergency management, as Milton has the potential to become one of the most devastating hurricanes in west-central Florida’s history.

Storm preparations should be completed by Tuesday night, as tropical storm conditions are expected by early Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall will continue to affect parts of Florida ahead of Milton, with more significant rain expected Tuesday night through early Thursday. This could lead to flash flooding, urban flooding, and river flooding.

Coastal flooding may exacerbate the situation in some areas, leading to an increased risk of widespread flooding.

Stay up to date with the latest news, weather and sports by downloading the WGNO app on the Apple or Google Play stores and by subscribing to the WGNO newsletter.

Latest Posts

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to WGNO.