Inflation, immigration worries push some Nevada Hispanics toward the GOP

Alan Carrera, 16, runs one of the fruit drink and frozen treat stands his father established in Las Vegas after starting out as a street vendor selling churros in Los Angeles. Carrera plans to follow in his sister's footsteps and go to college to study business and return to help run the company. Tim Henderson/Stateline

LAS VEGAS — Here in Nevada, where a larger share of Hispanic people have made it into the middle class than in any other state, some see inflation and immigration as reasons to reconsider their long-held loyalty to the Democratic Party.

The Silver State is a place that rewards those willing to start at the bottom — emptying trash in the glittering casinos, wiping down hotel escalators in the stifling heat of vast parking garages or selling snacks and trinkets on the sidewalk.

Many Hispanics who started out doing that kind of work have reached the middle class, but they are worried about crippling housing costs and the arrival of new immigrants who they fear might compete for jobs.

Nearly 20% of voters in Nevada are Latino, and nationally the number of voting-eligible Hispanic people is growing by 1.4 million a year.

Nevada Republicans are trying to capitalize on Hispanic voters’ concerns about the high cost of living and immigration: GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo recently addressed the state’s Latin Chamber of Commerce, touting his efforts to eliminate licensing requirements for certain jobs, and defending recent vetoes of rent control bills passed by Democratic lawmakers.

Meanwhile, Democrats have seen their support in Nevada waver in recent years. Democratic presidential hopefuls won the state every election from 2008 to 2020. But two years ago, Lombardo narrowly defeated the incumbent Democratic governor. And last year, Nevadans kept their Democratic U.S. senator by fewer than 8,000 votes.

In this year’s presidential race, one poll showed Hispanic voters leaning toward former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden, before he dropped out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee. A new poll shows Harris has taken a commanding lead over Trump among Hispanic voters, and other recent polls have found the race tightening overall.

In Nevada, Hispanic voters say Republican attacks blaming the Biden-Harris administration for inflation and illegal immigration are resonating with them.

“Something’s got to change,” said Margarita Valdovinos, a businesswoman who sells items such as handcrafted jewelry and describes herself as Republican. “People used to be able to rent a house, and now they have to get just one room.”

Valdovinos, who is of mixed Mexican and German heritage, said Trump reminds her of her German-born father.

“He has issues, but who doesn’t have issues in their personal life? He has no fear and he’s not afraid to fight,” said Valdovinos. “I’m only saying what most people are saying behind closed doors. In the end, we have to vote for the person who does the best job.”

But some Hispanic voters say they still trust the Democratic Party.

“They’re just more sympathetic to the problems,” said Mario Berlanga Jr., owner of Mario’s Westside Market, a Las Vegas grocery store that also offers a hot foods menu. Berlanga grew up in a nearby housing project in a Mexican American family with 11 children.

“I know what it’s like to want and not have,” he said.

Berlanga said he’s as supportive of Harris as he is of Biden, who visited his store as a candidate in 2020 and fulfilled a promise to return as president in July. He also said he’s grateful to Democratic county and city administrations for $2 million in grants from federal funds to help expand his store with more healthy produce selections in an area considered a food desert.

High prices and housing costs have taken a toll on him and his customers in the mostly African American area, Berlanga said. He tries to give back, he said, by helping older customers with credit when they need food before their retirement checks arrive.

But he doesn’t blame inflation on the Biden-Harris administration — he lays the blame on food companies that won’t give small stores, like his, the same price breaks as big grocery chains, and he thinks investors buying up rental homes are to blame for skyrocketing rents.

“I just feel very lucky,” said Berlanga, who learned about Southern soul food from African American neighbors as a child, which has guided him in what he stocks on his store shelves and cooks for his customers. He also expressed gratitude for a white store owner who took him under his wing and taught him how to run a business.

‘Definitely paying attention’

Pocketbook issues such as inflation and housing costs are top of mind for Latino voters in Nevada and the United States as a whole, said Clarissa Martinez De Castro, vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative, part of the nonpartisan Hispanic advocacy group UnidosUS. Immigration issues are also increasing in importance, she added.

She disputed the idea that Hispanic voters are becoming more conservative, saying recent Republican gains represent a return to historical levels of Latino support.

“You are seeing Republicans regain some of the support they lost, and you’re also seeing an increasing number of Latinos in the independent column, so some of that is taking away from traditional Democratic support, but it’s not necessarily translating to Republican support,” Martinez De Castro said.

About 35% of Hispanics identified as Republican in 2023, according to a Pew Research Center analysis published this year, after falling as low as 29% in 2016.

Hispanics are not running to one party, but they’re definitely paying attention and moving away from one party and kind of hanging out in the independent middle.

– Peter Guzman, president of the Latin Chamber of Commerce Nevada

Peter Guzman, director of the state’s Latin Chamber of Commerce, speaking at a luncheon in Las Vegas before Biden dropped out of the race, said Hispanics have become more disenchanted with Democrats without fully embracing Republicans.

“Hispanics are not running to one party, but they’re definitely paying attention and moving away from one party and kind of hanging out in the independent middle,” Guzman said.

Lombardo, who has issued executive orders freezing any new occupational licensing requirements, also told a skeptical crowd at the Latin Chamber of Commerce luncheon to consider his free market approach to the housing shortage.

Lombardo vetoed two rent-control bills, including one that would have limited rent increases for older people, sponsored last year by Democratic Majority Leader Assemblywoman Sandra Jauregui, a Latina representing part of the Las Vegas area.

Immigration is a salient issue to the 72% of Nevada’s voting-age Hispanics who are U.S.-born or naturalized citizens, according to a poll conducted for the conservative Libre Institute in May. That’s typical of states with large numbers of Hispanics — it ranges from 62% in North Carolina to 81% in Arizona, two other states sometimes considered swing states.

“We did the right thing and followed the rules,” said Valdovinos, the businesswoman. “Now it’s just anybody coming over the border and staying.”

Berlanga said he agrees on that point: “I think we should tighten the border. I was born here and my parents were Hispanic, but they came here the right way and did the right thing. We’ve got to make it fair.”

‘A beautiful journey’

Many in Nevada have reached the middle class from humble beginnings.

José Manuel Carrera started off selling churros on the street in Los Angeles, moved to Las Vegas and expanded to other items such as elotes, grilled corn on the cob. He and his family slowly built up his chain of Paletas Y Aguas carts that sell frozen treats and fruit drinks, and opened a brick-and-mortar ice cream store to supply them. This year, the company became the first in Clark County to get a licensed stand.

Alan Carrera, 16, is helping his father and plans to go to college to study business before rejoining the family operation, as his sister is doing, though he hasn’t thought about his future as a voter.

About 57% of Hispanic households in Nevada are middle class, according to a Stateline analysis based on 2022 data. That is a higher percentage than in any other state. Fifty-two percent of white households and 46% of Black households in Nevada are middle class.

For purposes of the analysis, Stateline defined as middle class those households making between two-thirds and twice the state median income adjusted for family size, or between $54,000 and $161,000 in Nevada.

Among states with large Hispanic populations, Illinois, Nevada and New Mexico are the only ones where Hispanics have a higher middle-class share than whites, though the disparity is less than 4 points in many states with long-established communities — states on the Southwest border and Florida. Disparities are higher in the Northeast.

With Nevada's housing construction and tourism industries humming again — boosted by the state’s first Super Bowl this year — skilled Hispanic workers can easily reach the middle class even in blue-collar fields.

“This is just a great time to be in the trades,” said Cory Summerhays, owner of Unforgettable Coatings, a Las Vegas painting firm specializing in hotels and shopping centers. “I’ve got some [Hispanic] project managers who’ve been with me for 15 years and are making six figures and sending their kids to college. As we’ve struggled to find labor, they’ve become more valuable to us and they’re doing very well.”

One of Summerhays’ project managers, Benjamin Guardado, said he started with the company as a painter 15 years ago, when it only had eight workers. Unforgettable Coatings now has 400 employees.

A native of El Salvador, Guardado said he was proud to send his daughter, Katerin, to Nevada State College to earn a communications degree. Neither can vote: Guardado said he has legal residency but is not a citizen, while his daughter is a “Dreamer” who arrived as a child without legal status but has been protected from deportation by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.

More Nevada Hispanics are moving into the middle class — the share of households in that category grew from 48% to 57% between 2012 and 2022 — but relatively few of them have climbed higher. Only about 7% of Nevada Hispanic households earn more than $161,000 a year, one of the lower shares for states with large Hispanic populations. By contrast, the percentage is 10% in New York and 12% in New Mexico and Florida.

Summerhays said his project managers should be moving up to owning their own businesses, but that they struggle to pass English-language contractor licensing exams. He hopes proposed changes to state regulations, now under review, will allow them to go out on their own.

“I am proud to see employees self-actualize,” Summerhays said. “Entrepreneurship is a beautiful journey.”