Tropical Depression 14 in Gulf to strengthen rapidly, could impact Florida as major hurricane

Tropical Depression 14 formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Saturday, and could be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center's latest advisory.

The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by early Monday, according to the NHC.

The system is expected to rapidly intensify over the next 36 hours and could be at or near major hurricane strength – Category 3, 4 or 5 – when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid-week, the NHC said.

Once the system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, it will be named Milton.

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Regardless of further development, the system is expected to dump heavy rain onto much of Florida late this weekend and through the middle of next week.

Heavy rain will push east from the Gulf and into South and Central Florida peninsula starting Sunday, particularly along and south of I-4, said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger.

In Big Bend and north-central Florida, rainfall should be limited and end by Tuesday. With intermittent heavy rains continuing through at least midweek in South and Central Florida, seven-day accumulations there may generally exceed 5” and locally top 10”, and residents should be on alert for flash flood risks, Truchelut said.

Meanwhile, over the open Atlantic, Hurricane Kirk is a powerful Category 3 hurricane. Swells from Kirk are expected to reach the East Coast of the U.S. Saturday night and Sunday and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Storm Leslie gained Category 1 hurricane strength in the tropical east Atlantic late Friday. Leslie is not expected to affect land.

The hurricane center is also tracking a tropical wave off the eastern coast of Africa. The wave has a 30 percent chance of development over the next seven days.

Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Depression 14

  • Location: 210 miles north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico; 350 miles west of Progreso, Mexico

  • Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph

  • Movement: northwest at 3 mph

Tropical threat in Gulf of Mexico could hit Florida with 3 to 30 inches of rain

At 11 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.1 West.

The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph.

A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected during the next day or so.

A faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday.

On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.

Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by early Monday.

The system could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression 14 key messages

  1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.

  2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast.

  3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Tropical Depression 14 maximum wind forecast

  • 11 a.m.: 35 mph

  • 12 hours.: 40 mph

  • 24 hours.: 50 mph

  • 36 hours.: 65 mph

  • 48 hours: 80 mph

  • 60 hours.: 100 mph

  • 72 hours.: 110 mph

  • 96 hours.: 110 mph

  • 120 hours: 75 mph

Tropical Depression 14: Spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Fourteen

Tropical Depression 14 track

Hurricane Kirk: What you should know

  • Location: 1040 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands; 1,525 miles west-southwest of the Azores

  • Maximum sustained winds: 120 mph

  • Movement: northwest at 16 mph

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Kirk

At 11 a.m., the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 50.3 West.

Kirk is moving toward the north near 16 mph and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.

A faster northeastward motion is expected on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Kirk is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

Impacts: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Hurricane Leslie: What you should know

  • Location: 785 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands

  • Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph

  • Movement: west-northwest at 7 mph

➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Leslie

At 11 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 35.4 West.

Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue today.

A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts.

Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight.

A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

Impacts: No impacts to land are expected.

What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?

Far eastern tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday.

Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.

  • Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

What do the colored areas on the NHC map mean?

The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.

The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.

Excessive rainfall forecast

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

When is hurricane season over?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA

The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

What's next?

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This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: FL storm tracker, path: Tropical Depression 14 to be Hurricane Milton