Iowa Poll finds Trump leads Biden by double digits among likely Iowa voters

Former President Donald Trump had a significant lead over President Joe Biden in the June 2024 Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. (Photos by Mario Tama and David Dee Delgado/Getty Images, illustration via Canva)

Even after former President Donald Trump’s criminal conviction, he leads President Joe Biden by nearly 20 percentage points among likely Iowa voters, the most recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

The poll results, published Monday, show 50% of likely Iowa voters said they would support Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee in the general election if it were held today. Biden, the incumbent president who defeated Trump in the 2020 election, had the support of 32% of likely voters.

Outside of the main two candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent after failing to win the Democratic nomination against Biden, earned the most support. The poll found 9% of likely voters supported Kennedy, while libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver earned 2% of likely voters’ support. Another 3% said they would support someone else, 1% would not vote, and 3% are not sure.

Trump won Iowa in the 2020 presidential election, earning 53% in the state to Biden’s 45%. He also won Iowa in the 2016 election with 52% to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s 42%. The latest poll results show Trump having a greater lead against his Democratic opponent heading toward the Nov. 5 election, with an 18 percentage point margin. Previous Iowa Polls from this election cycle showed a similar margin: Trump led Biden 48%-33% in the March poll.

The latest results come on the heels of Trump’s criminal conviction, when a New York jury found the former president guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to hush-money payments during the 2016 campaign season.

While other polls have found independents and swing voters are less likely to support Trump following the verdict, the Iowa Poll found that Trump remains at a higher favorability with likely voters than Biden. The GOP presidential candidate is viewed favorably by 51% of poll respondents and unfavorably by 47%, while Biden is seen favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 66%.

Compared the March poll, more Iowa independents have a positive view of Trump than before — 48% of independents view him favorably compared to 50% unfavorably, a better margin than the 42%-53% favorability he earned in the earlier poll. However, Trump still has a worse margin with independent women, with 41% saying they have a favorable view and 58% an unfavorable view.

Though he has a net positive favorability score, there is still a significant portion of likely Iowans who strongly dislike Trump. In the poll, 37% of Iowans said they have a “very unfavorable” view of Trump. Biden had 50% of poll takers who said their feelings toward him were “very unfavorable.”

Overall, 13% of respondents have an unfavorable view of both presidential candidates, according to the poll. In this group of so-called “double-haters,” more plan to vote for Biden, 26%, than Trump with 16%. Among people who see both Biden and Trump unfavorably, 26% support Kennedy, who held an event in April to qualify for the Iowa general election ballot.

The Iowa Poll was conducted June 9-14 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. Results are based on responses from 806 Iowa adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Of those respondents, 632 were likely voters, and questions to this group have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

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