Israel’s Reprisal Strike Carefully Calculated, Unclear If Jets Ever Flew Over Iran

IAF strikes Iran
IAF strikes Iran

Israel’s retaliation strike on Iran targeted air defense positions and long-range weapons facilities. Carried out primarily by the Israeli Air Force, it was a limited attack meant to weaken Tehran’s offensive and defensive capabilities and to highlight Israel’s deep strike capabilities. The strikes on air defense sites, in particular, made Iran more vulnerable to a larger follow-up strike, a clear deterrent against further escalation. By sticking to strictly military targets with few reported casualties, the operation also fell within the guidelines suggested by the Biden administration, and the threshold Iranian officials had previously suggested would result in no further kinetic actions. The strikes were in retaliation for the massive Oct. 1 Iranian ballistic missile barrage on Israel.

Some 20 targets were hit, “including the S-300 air defense of Imam Khomeini International Airport which provides defense cover for parts of the sprawling capital,” The New York Times reported, citing two Iranian officials, including a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC).

“In Tehran Province, at least three Revolutionary Guards missile bases were attacked, the officials said,” according to The Times. “In a second round of Israeli strikes, the officials said, Israeli drones targeted the secretive Parchin military base in the outskirts of Tehran and one drone hit the base while others were shot down, they added.” It is unclear exactly what drones would have been used or if the weapon type stated is indeed accurate.

U.S. and Israeli officials “reported that three waves of airstrikes took place on Saturday morning local time, later named Operation Days of Repentance, the Jerusalem Post reported. “The first wave targeted Iran’s air defense system, while the second and third focused on missile and drone bases and weapons production sites.”

Satellite images emerged on social media purporting to show damage to a facility in Khojir as well as Iran’s new solid-propellant rocket motor plant in Parchin, about 950 miles east of Israel. The plant was opened in 2021, according to Fabian Hinz, a Research Fellow Defense and Military Analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

It is reportedly associated with the production of fuel for Scud, Fateh 110, and Zelzal ballistic missiles, we previously reported. In October 2014, there was a massive explosion at Parchin, which many believed was the result of sabotage by Israeli or American intelligence services.

One of the first confirmed Israeli targets:
Iran's new solid-propellant rocket motor plant in Parchin, inaugurated only in 2021. https://t.co/gV0rovvoCM pic.twitter.com/dFC0uQEv6a

— Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) October 26, 2024

Closer examination of that imagery shows several buildings at Parchin were hit. The compilation below shows at least a half dozen were damaged in the attack.

Gif’ing together. @obretix your BDA (as always) checks out. https://t.co/rr3S8VQAdI pic.twitter.com/6zmuiWcY1N

— Aurora Intel (@AuroraIntel) October 26, 2024

A video showed Israel also struck a building geolocated to Shamsabad Industrial Town south of Tehran. It is unclear at the moment what that building was used for. Some claim it was used to produce components for Iran’s drone program.

Israeli strike on a building geolocated in Shamsabad Industrial Town south of Tehran https://t.co/DtNdyplcPW https://t.co/0fDqUUfyLE pic.twitter.com/eUtoMdAe6w

— Samir (@obretix) October 26, 2024

Jordan said it did not authorize flights over its airspace and that it remains closed today.

A Jordanian military official confirmed today that Jordan's airspace remains closed to military aircraft from nations involved in regional conflicts.

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Source: @ArmedForcesJO@Petranews@AlMamlakaTVhttps://t.co/o2zKVTUD7R

— Dana Zureikat Daoud دانا زريقات (@DanaZkat) October 26, 2024

As expected, Israel launched munitions over Iraq. Video and images emerged on social media purported to show a spent booster from an Israeli air-launched ballistic missile that was found in Iraq. The last and only time Israel struck Iran directly using traditional airpower came last Spring after Iran sent a barrage of drones and missiles at Israel. Following that Israeli response, it became clear an air-launched ballistic missiles were used to do so. A booster for one of these weapons, which Israel has an impressive and growing portfolio of, was found in a field in Iraq close to the Iran-Iraq border. TWZ did a breakdown on exactly what was found and its implications you can read here. Yesterday we posited that more of these would show up in this area today. These weapons, which include Rocks and Air LORA, allow the IAF to strike deep into another country from great standoff distances and do so with a weapon that hits very hard with high-accuracy and is extremely challenging to intercept.

Another Missile Booster was found in Samarra city, western Salah Alden. #Iraq pic.twitter.com/QETVOGmDKo

— Tammuz Intel (@Tammuz_Intel) October 26, 2024

Missile booster was found in Salah Alden Governorate, northern #Iraq, that was used in last night's attack on Tehran. #Iran pic.twitter.com/T1LzB7yuOY

— Tammuz Intel (@Tammuz_Intel) October 26, 2024

Lots of spent air launched ballistic missile boosters near the Iran-Iraq border will likely show up on social media tomorrow.

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) October 26, 2024

The question still remains if any IAF crewed assets ever even entered into Iranian airspace. Standoff munitions, especially air-launched ballistic missiles, could have been responsible for striking the limited target sets that were hit. This would have several critical advantages.

First, doing so would result in a far less complex, lower-risk operation that could be executed and finished in a number of hours not days, with much fewer assets needed over a much shorter timeframe. It would also not necessitate the U.S. being directly involved in the operation, especially in a support role, such as providing aerial refueling.

Second, the risk of losing a crew and having to attempt a rescue would also be far less of an issue as it would be only limited to Syria and Iraq, where Israel already operates and has long-standing contingency plans for. While Jordan and Saudi Arabia, if their airspace was used, have better diplomatic ties with Israel to deal with such an occurrence, and still CSAR could be able to cover those areas as well. The distance and hostility related to Iran makes doing so a much more risky and complex affair.

Third, using standoff weapons, once again especially ALBMs, the suppression/destruction of enemy air defenses campaign could also be drastically reduced, if needed really at all. Many special capabilities, such as electronic warfare and cyber attacks, could be withheld for future contingencies. It’s still possible that unmanned platforms were used even if manned ones were not, potentially including clandestine ones with penetrating capabilities.

These are just some key points, there are others including adhering to U.S. demands as far as the mission’s scope and risk for rapid escalation.

The IDF released images and video showing F-15 and F-16 fighters that took part in the attack.

One of those F-15 Bazs, marked 957 “Sky Blazer,” has an interesting history.

“It was involved in a mid-air collision with an A-4 during a training exercise over the Negev in 1983, according to Times of Israel reporter Emanuel Fabian. “The F-15 managed to land safely and was later repaired.”

Over the years, “Sky Blazer has downed 4.5 Syrian planes (half because another F-15 was involved in shooting down a Syrian MiG-23 in 1985, and it was unclear which one launched the missile that ultimately caused the plane to be shot down),” he added. “The same F-15 also participated in September’s strikes on the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.”

Fun fact about the F-15 marked 957 "Sky Blazer" seen in this video.

It was involved in a mid-air collision with an A-4 during a training exercise over the Negev in 1983.

The F-15 managed to land safely and was later repaired.

Over the years, Sky Blazer has downed 4.5 Syrian… https://t.co/OpfoX8hFlt

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) October 26, 2024

The IDF releases a video showing F-15 fighter jets heading out to carry out last night's strikes in Iran. pic.twitter.com/9BAjeSBP5H

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) October 26, 2024

The IDF released a recording of Air Force commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar and Lt. Col. S., Commander of the 201st Squadron, from the strike in Iran.

“The historic operation you carried out last night with careful planning, courage and precision, proves that no enemy is beyond our reach,” said Bar.

״הפעולה ההיסטורית שביצעתם הלילה, הוכיחה – אין אויב שהוא רחוק מדי.
אתם הגאווה של כולנו."

מפקד חיל-האוויר, אלוף תומר בר, בשיח בקשר עם סא"ל ש', מפקד טייסת 201 ("האחת"), ברגעי התקיפה באיראן. האזינו. pic.twitter.com/PqWOWrRL7g

— Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) October 26, 2024

The IAF also published photos of some of the men and women who carried out the attack.

Photos of the day: #Israel publishes pictures of some of its airmen *and women* who struck #Iran's regime overnight after years of threatening to eradicate the Jewish state. An important moment for Israel and the Jewish people. pic.twitter.com/IxfIZTlnao

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) October 26, 2024

The images do not show anything remarkable about the fighters’ load-outs. They are heavily laden with fuel, with the F-15 packing three tanks and the F-16 packing three as well, including two 600-gallon wing tanks — the largest any F-16 can carry — as well as the F-16Is standard conformal fuel tanks.

The question of if and how Tehran will respond looms large over the region.

“It is too soon to say,” an administration official told The War Zone Saturday.

On Saturday, U.S. President Joe Biden “convened a call with Vice President Kamala Harris and their national security team to receive a briefing and discuss the latest developments in the Middle East following Israel’s precise response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack on October 1st,” according to the White House press pool. “President Biden directed that every effort be taken to protect our forces and help defend Israel against any potential responses from Iran and its proxies.”

“I was on with the intelligence community for the last half hour,” Biden said. “It looks like they didn’t hit anything other than military targets. I hope that this is the end.”

Iranian authorities “strongly condemned” the attack, saying they reserved the right to respond. However, they downplayed the results, a possible indication that they may not.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Saturday decried yesterday’s attack against military targets “as a clear violation of the international law, the UN Charter, and the article on the prohibition of threat or use of force against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of states, according to the official Tasnim news agency. “On the basis of its inherent right to legitimate defense, stipulated in Article 51 of the UN Charter, the Islamic Republic of Iran considers itself to be rightful and duty bound to defend against the foreign acts of aggression.”

Iran Entitled to Defense against Aggression: Foreign Ministryhttps://t.co/a694cSJRo1 pic.twitter.com/0YTWYw24dE

— Tasnim News Agency (@Tasnimnews_EN) October 26, 2024

As we noted yesterday, however, Iranian leaders had said before the attack that if it was limited to military facilities they might take the hit, not strike back and at least for now end the tit-for-tat barrages that have flown into both nations. To that end, it Israeli officials contacted Iran before the attack and said what they would and would not hit, according to the Jerusalem Post.

Israel warned Iran ahead of Operation Days of Repentance, saying which targets would and won't be struck and warning Tehran not to respond.

Full story > >https://t.co/7zCrNxAeFN

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) October 26, 2024

Still, they have to walk a fine line between their actions and appeasing that segment of the population calling for war with Israel.

“You played with the lion’s tail,” warned Hesamoddin Ashena, adviser to former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani. “… This is Iran.”

In what may be an indication of the government’s intentions, Iranian state media messaging dismissed the Israeli attack. They said it caused little damage and no upheaval to civilian life. Officials said air defenses downed most of the incoming missiles, no oil refineries or nuclear facilities were hit, and that casualties were limited to four soldiers who were killed.

Outlets like Tasnim and IRNA portrayed a return to calm in Iran, with markets bustling, streets filled with traffic, and aircraft arriving and departing from Imam Airport in Tehran.

“Life normal across Iran after air defense thwarts Israeli aggression,” the official Iranian Fars news agency wrote. “Tehran’s Grand Bazaar bustles with activity on Saturday.”

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Life Normal Across Iran After Air Defense Thwarts Israeli Aggressionhttps://t.co/EHsXUuxHYK pic.twitter.com/LG4SmwvZzw

— Fars News Agency (@EnglishFars) October 26, 2024

Over the next few days, we should find out more about the extent of the damage this attack caused and how it was executed. And, above all else, whether this is really the last volley for now. We will be watching these developments closely.

The War Zone reporter Thomas Newdick contributed to this report.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com