Joe Biden Dropped Out Of The Presidential Race, And His Job Approval Is On The Rise

A funny thing happened on President Joe Biden’s way to lame-duck status: He started getting more popular, or at least less unpopular.

Since Biden reluctantly stepped aside from the presidential race in late July, his approval rating has steadily ticked up to levels of popularity he had not seen in more than a year, an apparent reflection of both the gratitude of voters who view his decision as selfless and also of a slew of positive economic news in recent weeks. The 81-year-old’s improved standing could ultimately benefit his preferred successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, as she aims to defeat former President Donald Trump in November.

David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the 48% approval Biden reached in a poll he conducted for USA Today last week was the highest mark Suffolk had recorded during the Democrat’s presidency. He suggested voters may now be taking a big-picture view of Biden’s presidency rather than rating how they feel he’s doing in office at this precise moment.

“He’s taken himself out of [the election], he’s entered legacy territory with some voters, they’ve seen he’s passing the torch,” Paleologos told HuffPost. “So in that sense, it’s not point in time job approval, it’s more the totality of his administration over the last four years.”

Paleologos compared Biden to a retiring athlete getting a last round of applause from the hometown fans: “You forget the bad games and you remember the time when the athlete performed to your liking or exceeded your expectations. It’s the same kind of dynamic.”

To be clear, Biden remains far from the nation’s most adored politician. In the Suffolk poll, his disapproval rating is effectively tied with his approval rating at 49%. The polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight puts his average approval at 42.3% while his average disapproval is at 52.4%.

But that’s a substantial improvement from July 22, the day after he dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Harris. Then, his approval was just 38.6% and his disapproval was 56.2%.

Biden’s net approval in FiveThirtyEight’s average is now as high as it’s been since May 14, 2023, only a few weeks after he announced he would run for reelection.

Beyond Suffolk, polling from Quinnipiac University and Gallup has also found big increases in Biden’s standing. In Quinnipiac’s polls, he went from a net -18 approval in mid-July to -7 in a survey conducted last week. Gallup had him jumping from -22 net approval in July to -10 in August.

Looking at the polls provides some indication of who Biden has won over. Both Quinnipiac and Suffolk show large increases in support from young voters, who were more supportive of Biden leaving the race than their older counterparts. In both polls, Democrats and independents also increased their support for Biden, though he was still underwater with the latter group.

The two polls split on Biden’s performance among Black and Latino voters, two traditionally Democratic constituencies he had struggled with. While Suffolk showed some improvement, Quinnipiac showed little movement.

Paleologos pointed to Biden’s gains with independent women, who have tilted increasingly Democratic since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Biden went from 47% approval to 58% approval with the group in Suffolk’s polling.

“There’s a lot that goes into that: the overturn of Roe, handling the mantle over to a woman who is qualified,” he said. “That’s the group of voters that prevented the red wave in 2022.”

Inside the White House, Biden aides have attributed his gains in popularity to positive economic news over recent weeks, including low gas prices in the run-up to the Labor Day holiday; consumer confidence hitting a six-month high; and what the Wall Street Journal called “giddiness” about the stock market.

“Inflation is falling while incomes are climbing, Medicare is negotiating lower drug costs, manufacturing is coming home from overseas, our infrastructure is being rebuilt, rich special interests are paying more of their fair share in taxes, violent crime is at a 50-year low, and unauthorized border crossings are lower than at the end of 2020,” said White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates.

Bates continued: “The American people are feeling those benefits firsthand and appreciate leadership that puts their bottom lines and their freedoms above everything else, as well as leadership that opposes the MAGAnomics tax increases on working people and radical abortion bans.”

Biden may also benefit from leaving the political spotlight, and with less media attention on his public appearances, which often reinforced voters’ concerns about his age and mental acuity. One Biden ally speculated the elimination of political concerns about Biden’s age has led the press corps to cover Biden in a more substantive way, benefiting the president.

Biden’s increased popularity could also help Harris down the stretch of the campaign. A key Trump strategy is to link Harris — who is now more popular than either Trump or Biden — to her unpopular boss since voters view Trump as stronger than Biden on major issues like the economy, inflation and securing the U.S.-Mexico border. (Trump’s average net favorability on FiveThirtyEight was a smidge better than Biden’s job approval at -9.5.)

“Kamala Harris is spending Labor Day campaigning with her partner-in-crime Joe Biden desperately trying to gaslight the American people,” Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told news outlets after Biden and Harris’ joint appearance on Monday. “Meanwhile, this Labor Day the American people are working harder than ever to afford gas, groceries, and rent because Kamala Harris broke our economy and is proud of it.”

Biden’s improving popularity could throw a wrench in those plans and also make him a more valuable, or at least less damaging, surrogate for Harris. After campaigning with Harris in Pittsburgh on Labor Day, the president is set to travel to both Wisconsin and Michigan this week.

Ultimately, his improving performance could turn out to be bittersweet for Biden, who unsuccessfully fought off voter concerns about his age and mental acuity for months before a disastrous debate performance in June. He then resisted efforts by his fellow Democrats to force him out of the presidential race. His allies had long argued his political standing would improve as the election drew closer.

“The new poll numbers show his presidency has been meaningful and full of accomplishments, and it is an unfortunate twist of fate that he got elected so late in life,” Caitlin Legacki, a Democratic strategist who worked as a top aide to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, told HuffPost. “These numbers clearly show that the earlier polling was much more a commentary on whether people thought he should run for a second term than whether they liked him or his agenda.”

Legacki said she thought Biden’s numbers would continue to improve: “Good news for both him and Harris.”