Journal Poll: Lujan Grisham's job approval rating dips as governor's second term nears midway point

Sep. 17—SANTA FE — Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham's approval rating is descending as she approaches the halfway point of her second term.

About 45% of registered, likely voters surveyed in a new Journal poll said they approved of the job Lujan Grisham was doing as governor — down from 59% in September 2020, during the peak of COVID-19.

The new poll also found that roughly 44% of voters said they disapproved of the Democratic governor's job performance, with the remaining voters unsure or declining to state their opinion.

Lujan Grisham's approval rating is similar to but slightly higher than that of her predecessor, Republican ex-Gov. Susana Martinez, at the same point in her tenure.

Martinez had an approval rating of 42% in October 2016, and her support level continued to decline prior to her leaving office at the end of 2018.

"It's difficult in New Mexico to retain your popularity during your second term as governor," said Brian Sanderoff, the president of Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll.

In addition to Martinez, Sanderoff pointed out that former governors Bill Richardson, a Democrat, and Gary Johnson, a Republican-turned-Libertarian, also saw their approval ratings decline during their final years in office.

A former three-term congresswoman, Lujan Grisham was elected governor in 2018 and won reelection in 2022.

Her tenure has been marked by the COVID-19 pandemic that saw New Mexico record one of the nation's highest death rates per capita, and by record-high state revenue levels generated in large part by surging oil production in southeast New Mexico's Permian Basin.

The increased revenue has allowed Lujan Grisham to sign bills increasing New Mexico starting teacher pay, expanding financial assistance to college students and providing state taxpayers with tax rebates.

However, the governor has increasingly clashed with members of her own party in the Legislature on crime issues.

A special session called by the governor in July ended in a matter of hours with lawmakers not even debating her crime-focused agenda. Lujan Grisham responded by saying legislators should be "embarrassed" by their actions, but top-ranking lawmakers have pushed back by questioning the legality of the governor's bills and whether they would have actually reduced crime rates.

In addition, New Mexico is the only Southwestern state that has seen negative net household migration in recent years, according to income tax returns. From 2021 to 2022, about 1,100 more people left New Mexico to live somewhere else than moved to New Mexico from another state, according to legislative data.

Lujan Grisham was vetted for a possible Cabinet post in President Joe Biden's administration in 2020, but ultimately decided to remain in New Mexico.

A state divided on governor's job performance

The Journal Poll found varying levels of support for the governor's job performance around New Mexico.

In the Albuquerque Metro area, which has increasingly skewed Democratic in recent years, 48% of voters surveyed said they approved of Lujan Grisham's job performance, while 42% expressed disapproval.

Voters' views were similarly divided in northwest New Mexico, which encompassed both part of the Navajo Nation and more conservative-leaning Farmington area.

"The state's equally divided on the governor's job performance, and two of the state's regions are as well," Sanderoff said.

Lujan Grisham retained strong voter approval in the traditional Democratic stronghold of northern New Mexico, while voters in eastern New Mexico expressed disapproval by a more than 2-to-1 margin.

The governor also enjoyed more support among female voters than male voters, with 51% of women surveyed expressing support for Lujan Grisham's job performance compared to just 40% of men.

As governor, Lujan Grisham has made abortion and reproductive rights a priority, signing a 2021 bill that repealed a long dormant New Mexico abortion ban and issuing executive orders intended to protect women seeking abortion services and doctors that perform the procedure.

She also traveled to Las Cruces last week to break ground on a new reproductive health clinic funded in part by $10 million in state infrastructure funds.

Meanwhile, the governor's job approval rating was highest among voters with a college or graduate degree, while voters with a high school education or some college credits were more likely to express disapproval.

Poll methodology

The Journal poll is based on a statewide random sample of 532 voters who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general elections, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by age, gender education level, and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 6 through Friday, excluding last Tuesday (due to the presidential debate). The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.

All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.

Both cellphone numbers (88%) and landlines (12%) of likely general election voters were used.