Keir Starmer must lead the fight against Moscow

As the UK seems likely to swing to the Left on Thursday, Labour’s beloved European Union is not just going Right, but is heading in the opposite ideological direction to Starmer’s party. On everything from migration to military intervention, Labour would find itself an outlier.

This surge has a new champion: not France’s Marine Le Pen, but Hungary’s prime minister Victor Orban. The closest ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin among EU leaders, he has frequently opposed EU initiatives to support Ukraine in its defence against the illegal Russian invasion.

Now, to make things even more unstable, Orban has announced plans for a new hard-Right bloc in the European Parliament to oppose further military support to Kyiv. He will be joined by Right facing allies from the Czech Republic and Austria in an attempt to form the new “Patriots for Europe”.

If polls are to be believed, then Sir Keir Starmer’s foreign and military team are going to have to hit the ground sprinting on Friday morning. For be in no doubt: the Kremlin will fully test them over the next few weeks, using the EU elections – or Orban’s new prominence – as a springboard.

Frankly, Hungary taking control of the EU Council, as is its right as a member, makes a mockery of the institution at a pivotal moment. You really can’t make it up: only a bureaucracy this narrow-minded and inflexible could dream of giving one of its most vocal critics such a huge platform. During Hungary’s six months in charge, it will set the tone of discussions, praising Putin at every opportunity, and attacking liberal institutions and values. Meanwhile, Ukraine will be desperately fighting to put itself in the best possible position before the US Presidential election in November, as is its right after experiencing the horror of continual Russian bombardment.

Orban is at least in Kyiv today, visiting the Ukrainian president Zelensky for the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That is something, but if you look at his recent remarks about not wanting to give Ukraine any weapons, you can see his real goal is to set the stage for peace negotiations. But any negotiations now, or any time soon, would mean allowing Russia to freeze the front lines with 18% of the country under illegal occupation. It should be unconscionable.

Don’t believe me? Orban’s own press chief Bertalan Havasi said, “The most important topic of the talks is the chance to create peace.” This sounds like a comment coming out of the Kremlin, not Brussels. Putin must be delighted.

As such, amid this crisis of leadership in Europe, Starmer, if he becomes PM on Friday, must focus on defence requirements before anything else. The Russians will exploit any weakness, and with a good many of his front bench having been in the past anti-Trident – including the Shadow Foreign Secretary, David Lammy – Putin will be rubbing his hands.

Starmer should commit to go much further than the Tories in arming Ukraine, and make an immediate commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5% by the end of this parliament, showing he is truly serious and not another weak leader. He should remove those from defence or foreign roles who could weaken Britain’s deterrent, including Lammy, and should seek to be the voice Europe desperately needs as France looks inward, Germany cowers, and the EU is split.

Get this wrong and all the ‘great things’ Labour is planning could become irrelevant very quickly. I have been appalled at the lack of defence-related debates at this election. Fundamentally, Labour could be facing war in Europe over the next few months if things go awry. That would mean us facing the most dangerous moment since the Second World War.

Would Labour be up to the task in that circumstance? We would have to pray they would be. But the jury is out.

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