The key 2024 races that will determine control of the Minnesota Legislature

Minnesota State Capitol. Courtesy of Minnesota House Public Information Services.

Minnesota Democrats showed the nation last year just how powerful a trifecta can be — even when their majorities in both chambers are as small as the eye of a needle. They passed paid family leave, universal free school meals, a steeply progressive child tax credit, increased sales taxes for housing and gas taxes for transportation, codified abortion rights and ended public university tuition for families earning less than $85,000 per year.

It was the most consequential Legislature in half a century. 

All of it hinged on a handful of battleground districts that were often decided by just dozens of votes. 

Republicans say voters are ready to bring back divided government, citing the Democratic-Farmer-Labor trifecta’s use of the entirety of the $17 billion surplus; endless headlines about government programs being defrauded; and what they call the “palace for politicians” — the $452 million (before interest) renovation to the State Office Building, which is where the state House members’ offices are. 

The state Senate isn’t on the ballot this year, but because Sen. Kelly Morrison, DFL-Deep Haven, left the upper chamber to run for Congress. A Nov. 5 special election will determine control of the Senate, which is evenly split 33-33. 

All 134 House seats are on the ballot, but both sides are aiming all their firepower on roughly 15 House races that could swing either way.

The stakes are huge: Another DFL trifecta will cement and possibly expand the progressive victories of 2023-2024, while divided government could lead to gridlock and possibly even a government shutdown as lawmakers and Gov. Tim Walz wrangle over a two-year state budget next spring. 

Here are the races that will determine control of the House and Senate in November:

District 3B: Two Harbors (Rep. Natalie Zeleznikar, GOP)

Rep. Natalie Zeleznikar, R-Fredenberg Township, won her election by a mere 33 votes and ousted longtime DFL Rep. Mary Murphy. District 3B is the DFL’s best chance at flipping a seat. Zeleznikar, who was a nursing home administrator for 30 years, is running for reelection in the district north of Duluth, including Two Harbors, Hermantown and Rice Lake.

Voters in the district opted for President Joe Biden in the 2020 election and Walz in 2022.

Mark Munger, a former Proctor city attorney and a retired judge for the Sixth Judicial District, is her DFL opponent. Munger also owns a publishing company, the Cloquet River Press, and has authored 14 books, according to his publishing website. Munger’s years on the bench and past judicial decisions have already come under some scrutiny, and Republicans will attempt to capitalize on any decision that makes him look soft on crime.

District 7B: Virginia/Eveleth (Rep. Dave Lieslegard, DFL, retiring)

Iron Range Rep. Dave Lislegard, DFL-Aurora, announced he’s not seeking reelection, dealing a blow to the DFL in what was thought to be a somewhat safe seat with an incumbent. But now both parties are gunning to win this northern Minnesota district, which includes Chisholm, Virginia and Eveleth and many townships. Voters in 7B voted for President Donald Trump in 2020 and for Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Jensen in 2022.

This is among the last DFL seats in northeast Minnesota, which has become increasingly Republican in the Trump years, and gives Republicans their best chance of a flip.

DFL candidate Lorrie Janatopoulos, who worked in Walz’s Department of Employment and Economic Development, states on her campaign website that she’s “pro-labor, pro-mining, pro-freedom.” She won a Bush Foundation fellowship in 2016, and the Bush Foundation states Janatopoulos was an LGBTQ activist on the Iron Range.

Cal Warwas, an Iron Range native, works at the U.S. Steel’s Minntac mine in Mountain Iron. He serves in local government for Clinton Township and is the endorsed GOP candidate. In a press release announcing his candidacy, Warwas said one of his top priorities will be mining policy and described himself as a “citizen pro-mining activist.”

District 14A: St. Cloud (Rep. Bernie Perryman, GOP)

This Biden/Walz district includes about half of St. Cloud and the cities of St. Joseph and St. Augusta. First-term Rep. Bernie Perryman, R-St. Augusta, won the 2022 election over her DFL opponent by 199 votes. Perryman is a small business owner and chair of the St. Cloud Chamber of Commerce. She was also a regional vice president for Anheuser-Busch for 20 years.

Abdi Daisane, who lives in St. Cloud, owns a child care center and has a master’s degree in public administration from St. Cloud State University. The DFL candidate’s priorities include supporting affordable housing, increasing funding for the state’s child care centers and advocating for climate justice.

District 14B: St. Cloud (Rep. Dan Wolgamott, DFL)

The other half of St. Cloud is home to another key House district, which voted for Biden in 2020 and Walz in 2022. Rep. Dan Wolgamott, DFL-St. Cloud, won his 2022 race by 540 votes, but the margin could be smaller in the greater Minnesota district, which also includes a part of Sauk Rapids. The three-term legislator is running for reelection. Last year, Wolgamott pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor DWI charge after he was suspected of drinking alcohol in the parking lot of a liquor store. 

GOP challenger Sue Ek says on her campaign site that her priorities include lower taxes, support for law enforcement and protecting “parents’ rights to school choice, including homeschooling.” Ek ran for a St. Cloud House seat during a special election in 2005, but the state Supreme Court removed her from the ballot after agreeing with a lower court that she didn’t live in St. Cloud long enough to meet the state’s residency requirements.

District 18A: North Mankato (Rep. Jeff Brand, DFL)

Rep. Jeff Brand, DFL-St. Peter, is running to keep his seat in this Biden/Walz district, which includes parts of  Mankato and the cities of North Mankato and Kasota. The second-term representative helped pass legislation in 2023 that bans products containing so-called “forever chemicals” which will take full effect in 2032. Brand was previously a St. Peter City Council member and board member of the Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities.

Erica Schwartz is the GOP-endorsed candidate for Brand’s seat. Schwartz lives in Nicollet, where she works at Nicollet Mart — a local convenience store owned by her husband, according to her campaign site. She states her top issues include ensuring students have access to quality education, combating inflation and bolstering Minnesota’s law enforcement.

District 26A: Winona (Rep. Gene Pelowski Jr, DFL, retiring)

The DFL lost a key incumbent after longtime Rep. Gene Pelowski, DFL-Winona, announced he would retire at the end of his 19th term. Pelowski, who chairs the House Higher Education Finance and Policy Committee, fended off Republican challengers in recent years. District 26A, a Biden/Walz district, includes Goodview, Stockton and Winona.

The local DFL party failed to endorse a candidate, and voters will determine whether Sarah Kruger or Dwayne Voegeli will be the DFL candidate in the August primary. Kruger is the chief of staff for the nonprofit FairVote Minnesota, which advocates for election reforms. Voegeli is a high school social studies teacher and chair of the Winona County Board of Commissioners.

The Republican-endorsed candidate for House District 26A is Aaron Repinski, who owns and operates the Winona Tour Boat Company. Repinski is also a Winona City Council member, and on his campaign site he states his top issues are improving education, the economy and public safety.

District 32B: Blaine (Rep. Matt Norris, DFL)

Freshman Rep. Matt Norris, DFL-Vermillion, is running for reelection in Biden/Walz District 32B, which includes Blaine and Lexington. Norris won his 2022 race by 413 votes. The traditionally white working class district has steadily gained more people of color, which could swing the district more blue. Norris is vice chair of the House Taxes Committee.

Norris’ Republican challenger Alex Moe ran for the state Senate in 2022 in Duluth. Moe worked in the Anoka County courts system and his campaign site includes many right-wing culture war issues, including that he wants to remove “politics from the classroom.” Moe claimed, for instance, that in the Anoka-Hennepin School District, “teachers are also being forced to use specific gender pronouns and names for students without parental knowledge.”

District 34A: Champlin (Rep. Danny Nadeau, GOP)

Democrats hope this Trump/Jensen district, which includes Rogers, Dayton and Champlin, has potential to swing from red to blue. In 2020, Trump carried all three precincts in Dayton. Two years later, Walz flipped one and Secretary of State Steve Simon flipped two. 

Freshman Rep. Danny Nadeau, R-Rogers, won in 2022 by a significant margin, but a strong performance for Biden could oust him. Nadeau is a contract manager with Hennepin County, and on his campaign website he states that his small construction company went under in part because of labor unions.

“Make no mistake, labor unions did a great deal to improve working conditions and they have a place at certain negotiating tables. But small companies like mine struggle and too often fail under the weight and pressure they can impose,” Nadeau states.

Nadeau’s DFL challenger is again Brian Raines, who lost to Nadeau by about seven percentage points in 2022. Raines, who lives in Rogers, works for the state’s carpenters union. On his campaign site he says he wants to suspend the state’s gas tax, invest more in affordable health care and expand the state’s pre-kindergarten programs.

District 35A: Anoka/Coon Rapids (Rep. Zack Stephenson, DFL)

Rep. Zack Stephenson, DFL-Coon Rapids, is running for reelection after winning his 2022 race by about five percentage points, but it’s a potential GOP pickup. House District 35A went for Biden in 2020 and Walz in 2022, and it includes Anoka and Coon Rapids. Stephenson, who chairs the House Commerce Finance and Policy Committee, is a prosecutor for Hennepin County.

Josh Jungling is the Republican challenger. Jungling is the charitable gambling manager for the Anoka Ramsey Athletic Association, and he states on his campaign site that his top issues include lowering taxes, supporting law enforcement and protecting senior citizens.

District 35B: Coon Rapids (Rep. Jerry Newton, DFL, retiring)

This is an open seat with the retirement of Rep. Jerry Newton, DFL-Coon Rapids. 

This Biden/Walz district in the northwest metro includes Coon Rapids and Andover. Democratic candidate Kari Rehrauer is a member of the Coon Rapids City Council and a teacher. Rehrauer says her top issues are improving public education, providing affordable health care and making access to clean energy more readily available.

The Republican candidate is Steve Pape, who is the president and CEO of Valley Star Inc., which is an engineering consulting firm. Pape is a Navy veteran and on his campaign site he says he has “decades of experience in designing systems for the U.S. Department of Defense.”

District 36A: Lino Lakes (Rep. Elliott Engen, GOP)

Freshman Rep. Elliot Engen, R-White Bear Township, won his 2022 race by 642 votes. The Biden/Walz district includes North Oaks, Lino Lakes and Circle Pines. The city of Lino Lakes is up for grabs in November, and this district is among the north metro seats that could determine control of the House. Engen, who is running for reelection, works for a nonprofit environmental organization and he’s one of the state’s youngest legislators.

His Democratic challenger is Janelle Calhoun, previously an executive director for the Rein in Sarcoma Foundation, a cancer research nonprofit. On her campaign site, Calhoun says she’s an environmentalist and a supporter of reproductive health care and LGBTQ rights.

District 41A: Lake Elmo (Rep. Mark Wiens, GOP, retiring)

This Biden/Walz District includes Afton, Lake Elmo and Cottage Grove. Freshman Republican Rep. Mark Wiens of Lake Elmo is not seeking reelection, so the district is up for grabs. In 2022, Wiens only narrowly carried the district, while Walz won by nearly five percentage points.

Lucia Wroblewski, a retired St. Paul police officer, is the DFL candidate. On her campaign site, Wroblewski said she was a use-of-force expert for 24 years and a field training officer for 22 years. She is also an Afton City Council member. Her top issues include comprehensive public safety, a fairer economy and access to clean water, which is important in east metro water supplies contaminated with forever chemicals. 

The Republican-endorsed candidate for the seat is Grayson McNew, who is backed by the far right insurgent GOP group Action 4 Liberty. He’s a former legislative aide to right-wing provocateur and former legislator Erik Mortensen. On his campaign site, McNew says he will push to enact school vouchers “immediately.” McNew works for the St. Croix River Company, and is facing a primary election against more conventional Republican candidate Wayne Johnson.

District 41B: Cottage Grove/Hastings (Rep. Shane Hudella, GOP, retiring)

Freshman Rep. Shane Hudella, R-Hastings, is not running, so this is an open seat. The Biden/Walz district includes Cottage Grove and Hastings. Hudella’s unexpected retirement gives the DFL an opportunity to flip an open seat. Hudella won in 2022 by 418 votes.

Jen Fox is the DFL candidate. Fox is a Hastings City Council member and acting mayor of the city. Her top issues include improving infrastructure, ensuring Minnesotans have access to clean water and supporting small businesses.

The Republican candidate is Tom Dippel, who ran for the state Senate two years ago. Dippel is another Action 4 Liberty candidate and founded the Minnesota Dental Lab in Newport. Dippel says his top issues include access to clean water, giving school boards more control of education policy and protecting labor unions.

District 45A: Long Lake (Rep. Andrew Meyers, GOP)

Freshman Rep. Andrew Myers, R-Tonka Bay, is running for reelection in the west metro, Biden/Walz district that includes Minnetonka, Excelsior and Orono. The DFL has been slowly making ground here, but it’s traditionally been Republican territory. Myers is an attorney and small business owner.

Tracey Breazeale is the DFL candidate. She is a Minnetonka Beach City Council member and former business executive who worked at Boston Consulting Group and Sleep Number. Her top priorities include lowering costs for Minnesotans, bolstering public safety and supporting public education.

District 48B: Chanhassen (Rep. Lucy Rehm, DFL)

First-term Rep. Lucy Rehm, DFL-Chanhassen, is running for reelection in the Biden/Walz district, which includes Chaska, Chanhassen and Shorewood. Rehm is a former teacher and Chanhassen City Council member. In 2022, she won the election by 417 votes.

Caleb Steffenhagen, an officer in the Minnesota Army National Guard and a teacher, is the GOP candidate. He also owns a local milling company.

District 54A: Shakopee (Rep. Brad Tabke, DFL)

Rep. Brad Tabke, DFL-Shakopee, is running for a third term in this Biden/Walz south metro district that encompasses Shakopee. Tabke in 2022 won his race by eight percentage points over Erik Mortensen, the right-wing troll. Despite Tabke’s comfortable 2022 victory, Republicans hope a non-Mortensen, more traditional Republican candidate could perform better this year.

Republican Aaron Paul, a police officer and former school resource officer, will face off against Tabke. Paul says on his campaign site that he’s running to lower taxes, strengthen public safety and improve the state’s education outcomes.

District 57b: Lakeville (Rep. Jeff Witte, GOP)

First-term Rep. Jeff Witte, R-Lakeville, won his 2022 race by 676 votes in the Biden/Walz district that solely encompasses Lakeville. Witte, who is running for reelection, is a retired police officer who worked in schools, and this year he helped negotiate a compromise on police use of force in schools.

His DFL challenger is Brian Cohn, a former chair of the nonprofit Minnesota Masters Swimming. Cohn says on his campaign site that he is running to improve access to mental health services, support the state’s public education and reduce gun violence.

Senate District 45: Minnetonka (Sen. Kelly Morrison, DFL, retiring)

The lone Senate seat on the November ballot is Senate District 45, which voted for Biden and Walz by large margins. Morrison’s resignation means voters in this district, which includes Wayzata, Excelsior and Mound, will choose a new state senator. With control of the Senate on the line, the race will likely draw millions in outside spending.

Three DFL candidates have filed to run, including former DFL Sen. Ann Johnson Stewart. The other two DFL candidates are Emily Reitan and Kyle Jasper Meinen. A special primary will be held on Aug. 13. The Republican running for the Senate seat is Kathleen Fowke, a west metro realtor. Morrison in 2022 beat Fowke by about 13 percentage points.

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