How La Niña Could Affect Winter '24/'25
La Niña, El Niño, La Nada... the use of Spanish words to describe shifting surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean can be confusing, but fear not, POWDER is here to help you make sense of it heading into Winter '24/'25.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has determined there's a 79% chance of La Niña forming this winter, but what does that mean for our favorite ski resorts? YouTube channel Direct Weather makes his predictions in his recent Preliminary Winter Forecast 2024 - 2025 video (embedded later in article).
To make predictions on temperature and precipitation, we must first understand what La Niña is in the first place. NOAA's simplified definition helps us to understand:
"La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North."
While anomalies certainly happen, NOAA's definition provides guidelines for what a "typical" La Niña winter entails. To break it down even further for American skiers, here's what you could expect for Winter '24/'25 if a typical La Niña does occur:
Wetter and colder temperatures in the Pacific Northwest
Drier and warmer temperatures in the Southwest
Equal chances for snow and cold temperatures for much of the Rockies
Wetter but slightly warmer temperatures for the Northeast
Based on these rules, we can predict that ski resorts such as Mt. Baker, WA; Timberline Lodge, OR; and Schweitzer, ID will have great seasons in terms of snowfall and cold temperatures. On the other hand, resorts such as Arizona Snowbowl, AZ; Lee Canyon, NV; and Heavenly, CA/NV could experience warmer and drier seasons than desired.
The caveat here, and it's a big one, is that North America's weather is affected by factors other than La Niña. The snow record-breaking season of Winter '22/'23 comes to mind as an exception to some of these rules.
As Direct Weather mentions in his video, California, Nevada, and the Southwest typically experience warmer than average and drier than average winters when La Niña is in effect. This is due to a northerly Jet Stream which causes snow storms to miss the Sierra Nevada and surrounding mountain ranges.
The complete opposite happened in Winter '22/'23. Instead of nearly every storm missing places likes Palisades Tahoe and Mammoth, they hit, and hit big. Both resorts set record seasonal snowfall totals and remained open for skiing well into the summer.
Photo: PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images
Even with decades of technological advancements, predicting weather accurately is still one of the hardest things to do. Remember that as you plan your ski trips and vacations for the upcoming winter.
We'll keep you up-to-date on the latest predictions and forecasts as Winter '24/'25 approaches, but don't lose focus on what is most important. Winter is coming, and it's going to be fun no matter how cold it is or how much snow falls. Skiing is skiing, after all!
Take a look at Direct Weather's full Preliminary Winter Forecast 2024 - 2025 in the embedded video below.
Related: La Niña Has 79% Chance of Emerging This Winter
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