Latest poll shows Alsobrooks with 11-point edge over Hogan in Senate race

Stock.adobe.com photo by Larry.

A poll released Monday in the closely watched race for U.S. Senate found Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) with an 11-point lead over former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in a matchup that included third-party and independent candidates. She had an 8-point margin over Hogan in a head-to-head race.

The poll, conducted by the North Carolina firm Public Policy Polling, surveyed 635 registered voters last Wednesday and Thursday. It had a 3.9-point margin of error.

PPP is generally hired by Democrats, but does not poll for them exclusively. The firm did not immediately respond Monday to a question about who had commissioned the Maryland poll.

In a head-to-head matchup with Hogan, Alsobrooks led 48% to 40%. When other candidates were included, survey respondents gave Alsobrooks 45%, Hogan 34%, Libertarian nominee Mike Scott 3%, and Green Party nominee Nancy Wallace and independent Emmanuel Osuchukwu 1% each.

Hogan, who defied political odds by winning two terms as governor in blue Maryland, took 15% of the Democratic vote in the poll with Alsobrooks. But that’s just half the percentage of Democratic votes he rang up during his 2018 reelection bid.

“Recent history suggests that Senate candidates in states that strongly favor the other party see their level of crossover support get smaller and smaller as the election nears, which doesn’t bode well for Hogan to close his already double digit gap,” the PPP pollsters wrote.

The poll also found Alsobrooks with a net favorability rating that surpassed Hogan’s. She was viewed favorably by 43% of the survey respondents, compared to 16% who viewed her unfavorably. Hogan had a 50% favorability rating, though 33% of the poll respondents said they viewed him unfavorably.

Hogan was far better known: 41% of poll respondents said they weren’t sure how they felt about Alsobrooks, compared to just 18% who said they weren’t sure what they thought about Hogan.

But another potential warning sign for Hogan, who has regularly criticized former President Donald Trump, is that 26% of Republicans viewed him unfavorably. Only 8% of Democrats said they viewed Alsobrooks in a bad light.

In the race for the White House, President Joe Biden (D) led Trump 56% to 30% among Maryland voters, a rough approximation of his 65% to 32% victory in the state in 2020. Biden had a 47% job approval rating among Maryland voters, while 43% said they did not approve of the job he is doing. Trump had a 26% favorability rating in Maryland compared to 66% of voters who viewed him unfavorably.

Gov. Wes Moore (D) was viewed favorably by 50% of the poll respondents, while 22% said they viewed him unfavorably.

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